19/3/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The risk appetite is still depressed by the proposal of Cyprus rescue plan proposal by EU and IMF despite the recent given space to it to get out Eur5.8B anyway out of its banking sector depositors to let it fulfill its previous obligation of insuring the accounts amounts which are less than Eur100k.
God willing the voting is planned to be today and delaying it 2 times looking for much more flexibility from EU and IMF and also looking for backing to this plan inside Cyprus while the other option as its President Nicos Anastasiades has said is the bankruptcy of the biggest 2 Cypriot banks at least.
But anyway the implications of the plan announcement are indeed in need to be analyzed. We have seen the greenback rising with the Japanese yen across the broad on the risk aversion and also we could see again the gold getting up rising above 1600$ per ounce level with the beginning of the week as it looked to the investors a clear option for avoiding the risk.
The deal itself looked like a punishment imposed to the Cyprus banks depositors who have among them who are looking for money laundry offshore and in the same time under the EU regulations.
The Mediterranean island has been accused during the negotiations of letting money in the island with no restrictions or accurate accounting can show clear targets of this money and so the rescue plan came like that to threat who are looking to do this process there. The euro group has seen recently in the ballooning of the Cypriot banking system comparing to its GDP and comparing to its European counterpart an enough clue of doing that.
So, the remarks came from the ECB member Jorg Asmussen to calm down the market as expected showing to intention to do a similar step in another European countries and Cyprus is a special case but the action has left in the market sentiment and the investors’ minds the possibility of a having a similar stance in higher indebted bigger countries in EU Like Spain which have debt to GDP ratio at 84% in 2012 after its debt has grown to Eur845B in 2012 as the central bank of Spain has said by the weekend or Italy as both of them go directly to the markets for financing their debt with no transaction from the ECB OMT as there is no rescue plan for any one of them while Greece, Portugal and Ireland have this option.
While the financial, economical and political situations are getting complicated in Italy which has bigger economy than the double of these last three ones.
So, the stance can be miserable to the EU, in the case of deterioration of the crisis and it’s now highly probable with no secured stable government over the short term can implement austerities measures and spur growth in the same time while the offensive stance against the austerities measures there was a key of collecting votes.
So, these measures can be exposed to be cut or suspended by God’s will in Italy which has unemployment rate now at 11.7% in last January and industrial productions at its lowest amount since 1990 in last December and also GDP shrinking at a faster pace q/q in Q4 by 0.9% from 0.2% in Q3 driving its debt to GDP ratio up to 127% in 2012.
The implication of this stance was clear last week with yield over 3 year Italian uncovered bonds auction rising to 2.48% from 2.3% days before the elections when it was not well-known between Birsani and Berlusconi from 1.85% at the Auction before that while the tendency to safer positions dragged down the yields over the 2 years German Bunds to 0.06% from 0.21% in the previous auction of it and this percentage can go negatively again in the future by God’s will, in the case of having further dovish sentiment in EU with more worries about the debt crisis.
By God's will, EURUSD can face now in the case of rising further psychological level at 1.30 which could cap it yesterday while breaking it can open the way for higher resisting levels at 1.3106, 1.3134, 1.3162, 1.3317, 1.3433, 1.3519, 1.3598 before 1.3709 which has been reached after US non-farm payrolls of Jan which has shown adding 157k jobs has been revised down last to 119k with Feb labor report which has shown adding 236k out of the farming sector supporting the greenback which is facing now important supporting level of the single currency against it could hold unbroken in the beginning of this week too at 1.2876 and it could prop up the pair also after reaching it after US non-farm payrolls of November which ended to adding 161k Jobs while it has been reached when there was a day before it increasing expectations of having another interest rate cut by ECB after 6th of last December ECB meeting had come with decision of having the interest rate unchanged at 0.75% by majority not unanimously as what have happened in the next 2 meetings after it while that meeting has shown ECB economic downward revision of its economic projection of the inflation and growth in EU too but getting down below 1.2876 can be met by another supporting level at 1.2734 before 1.2661 again whereas it could rebound after the market worries about Greece got down while breaking it too can lead to another supporting level at 1.2464.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

5/4/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The risk appetite is still depressed by the weak US non-farm payrolls of March which have shown adding new 88k jobs while they were expected to be to 200k from 236 in February have been revised up to 268k. the US major indexes are still in the red territory while the greenback is still under pressure versus the single currency which could have a place again above 1.30 after yesterday rising following Draghi’s comments which ensured that there is no way to use Cyprus rescue plan as a template in other euro zone countries.
The British pound could get over 1.5259 resistance versus the greenback also easily after these data which underscored the weakness of the US labor market which can be exposed to turning back down as the private sector has also added lower than expected number as we have seen previously this week too by only 158k jobs while the market was waiting for 200k and also US initial jobless claim of the week ending on 31st of last market which has shown strong rising back to 385k after spending 5 weeks below 360k 5 of them were below 350k to highlight what has been said once before by Bernanke that the rebound of the labor market is in need to be ensured that it’s not temporary.
The greenback has come also under pressure versus the Japanese yen but the bargain hunters do not hesitate to get along with it at any bottom they see and this time was at 95.74. So, it has been pushed back up to get over 97 again despite the risk aversion following this dovish figure with the current unprecedented ultra easing stance of BOJ.
But the greenback could rise versus the Canadian dollar in a strait way following these data in a reversed way of what has been done with the release of February report as it came with disappointing this time showing losing 54.4k jobs in March after adding 50.7k in February.
But it was not easy to it to get over 1.0235 resistance versus the Canadian dollar as Mar Canadian Ivey PMI seasonally adjusted figure rose up to 61.6 from 51.1 while the consensus was revering to rising for 52.4 giving it protection with first touch.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

9/4/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The market participants are still trying to translate the stimulating wave which has been sent out from BOJ last week by showing extending possibility of its JGB maturities holding with doubling the amount of it has of them by the end of 2014 by buying what are from 60 to 70 trillion yen yearly.
You can see now the yield curve of JGB 10 years up to 0.53 from 0.45% at the time of these decisions and what’s below 0.5% before them and this can be read by different ways
The first, it is tending to taking risks selling the bonds looking for unlock of the safe haven positions while this wave is causing rising of the risk appetite even in some emerging markets.
Second, it has added to the worries about the Japanese financial situation amid these easing financial and monetary policies while Japan is one of the great countries that carries a GDP/ Deficit ratio above 10% but it looks to it not important as the economic situation which is in need for stimulation and this is obvious from the Japanese official comments which have only one direction until now.
The third is in the case of the success of these measures which can be in a longer period than what we are, as that can trigger rising in prices making the bonds less attractive than what are they currently pushing down the JGP prices driving up its yield.
So, the Japanese yen was the biggest loser until now and it can be exposed for further pressure amid these measures which are looking for ending deflation anyway as we see and as Shinzo Abe’s advisor Hamada looking for as he has told today that it is very early to wary about an exit of these policies of BOJ which can be fueled by more funds in the case of not achieving the target.
The single currency has tried today to reach 130 versus the Japanese yen and it is the first time it does since Jan 2010 while the greenback retreating versus the Japanese yen on a profit taken wave has followed strange comments from FM Japanese Aso that “the excessive yen strength is now being corrected” has been caped over 98.69 and it is now rising back again having a place above 99 can make 100 psychological level vulnerable again by God’s will.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

The Gold way of falling
 

[LEFT]The gold could reside nearby 1390$ after several tries yesterday to get over 1400$ level after it had been under strong pressure following breaking of its previous supporting level at 1523$. It was well-known to almost all market participants that this characteristic of the gold will be done in the case of breaking this critical level which could contain its falling more than once since getting over it on 8th July 2011.
Technically by a bold look before the breaking you can easily place your stop loss order just below that level or even if you are out of the market you can put your selling order floating below it and if there is an option barrier to be considered you can find a better one than it before its breaking. So, it has falling aggressively to 1321$ before having the ability to rebound to this current level just below 1400$
So, the technical issue could not be ignored when we want to talk about what has happened to the gold and it can come in front of the fundamental issue this time by the special volatile behavior it has taken.
But when we talk about the fundamental issue, you can find before the breaking of 1523$ that there was continuous rising in the equities market since the beginning of the year after avoiding the fiscal cliff in the beginning of the year and this has unwounded money out from the safe haven stance on the better outlook the stocks and assets markets could have.
This view has been maintained several times by the Fed making the safe haven stance less attractive while the US housing market are growing in solider way this year and equities markets are surpassing the levels before the credit crisis.
Ben Bernanke has said it clearly in his semiannual testimony in front of the senate that the stocks are not in yet in a bubble and they are not over valued on the current earnings outlook and the Fed’s accommodative stance.
This policy which is still looking in the phase of pushing forward for carrying risk at least to the Fed’s monetary policies maker Governors could drive the investors to put the inflation upside risks aside and get involved in riskier positions than holding the gold in a hedge against it as unemployment rate is getting down and we are still away from the 2.5% yearly level of yearly inflation which can trigger staving off of the QE policy which is also weighing down on the greenback and the exit of it means normally direct positive effect on the greenback and the opposite for the gold.
The risk aversion property of the gold has been also obviously taken from it a long time ago in favor of the low yielding currencies such as the greenback and the Japanese yen to be asked better and before the gold in the case of avoiding risk.
But with the current tendency for carrying risk which has been fueled too by the Japanese ultra stimulating financial and monetary stance with Shinzo Abe, the gold has become in a worse place.
So, holding the gold at these circumstances was the risky position as the pressures have started to come on it from several sides with no serious inflation pressure even the Korean issue did not add to it new buying and this was a clear sign to the markets experts that the gold is really heavy.
So, by God’s will, the fear of general commodities prices falling following the gold is looking limited comparing with the precious ones such as the silver which tracked its way of falling.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

3/5/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The single currency is still under pressure after yesterday ECB decision to cut the interest rate by 0.25% to be 0.5% saying that was for stimulating the economy while the pricing pressure is strongly well contained currently as the falling of HICP flash reading of April to 1.2% y/y.
The decision was widely expected as the economic activity slowing could dampen the prices over the consuming level by the weak demand while the unemployment rate in EU countries are still rising up by longer than expected recession as the ECB has mentioned that it has lingered to this spring but it is still looking for rebound in the second half of this year.
The pressure on the ECB has increased too by these weak data after the IMF had lowered its expectation of EU 2013 GDP in April to shrinking by to 0.3% from shrinking by 0.2% it has expected last January imposing direct request for monetary stimulating of the EU struggling economy which is under the pressure of the fiscal consolidations and the answers of the ECB governors was referring to the need of waiting for more data to move forward.
So, with these data, yesterday decision has been widely concluded and that’s why the single currency could rise after the decision above 1.32 but following Draghi’s comments that there may be a possibility for further easing in the future and there were who were calling for larger cut in the meeting. The single currency could not stand above 1.31 versus the greenback following this reference despite the risk appetite improving during the US session yesterday.
From the other side, the greenback was well supported by the falling of US initial jobless claim of the week ending on 26th April to the lowest level in five years at 324k before the release of awaited US labor report of April which is expected to show rising of the US non-farm payrolls by 145k after rising by 88k in March while the US unemployment rate is expected to stand at 7.6% after decreasing last month from 7.7% in February.
And here we should mentioned that the Fed has maintained this week again its view that there is no pausing or cutting of its monthly pace of buying which is at $85B currently by falling of the unemployment rate to 6.5% granted by the well-anchored inflation pressure in US as we have seen also this week with the falling of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge US PCE to 1% yearly in March from 1.3% in February while the core PCE has shown continued inflation easing pressure in March too by falling to 1.1% from 1.3% in February and January, 1.4% in December, 1.5% in November and 1.6% in last October.
So, we are still away from the 2.5% yearly level of yearly inflation which can trigger staving off of the QE policy which is also weighing down on the greenback and the exit of it means normally direct positive effect on the greenback and the opposite for the gold which could rise obviously following Fed’s assessment which has shown that there can be a possibility of increasing the pace of buying as there can be a possibility of cutting it on the economic changes in the future by God’s will.
As the market was pricing more on a possibility of cutting or pausing as recent meetings minutes have shown with no talking clearly this way about a possibility of hiking the pace of buying. So, the gold could find a way to creep up with reaching currently 1470$ per ounce after it has been under pressure 2 weeks ago on breaking of its previous well known supporting level at 1523$ could contain its falling more than once since getting over it on 8th July 2011 to lead to this massive characteristic way of falling of it reaching 1321$ before finding a way to correct that falling to this current level over 1400$

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

29/5/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The Single currency could find support versus the greenback to rise to 1.2976 until now with the release of Germane CPI flash reading of May which indicated rising of the inflation pressure over the consuming level more than what was expected to repeat of EU M3 has told too this morning by rising also more than expected increasing the possibility of pushing up the inflation in EU.
These worries about the inflation up side risks in EU have come also with rising of the germane unemployment change of May by 21k which is the biggest amount since Jan 2012 and also lowering of OECD forecast of EU GDP to be down this year by 0.6% from 0.1% it has foreseen in January.
OECD has argued consideration from the ECB side of adopting a Q.E and lowering the deposit rate below in the negative territory to push up the investment and improving the credit conditions.
And so, the EU major stocks indexes have come under increased pressure today with these data which have shown more difficulties in front of the ECB can cap it from stimulating further the EU stagnant economy.
In the same time, it looks that the equities market will live sooner than later the stance of reducing the Fed’s support and this has been obviously watched yesterday by rising of the US 10 years treasuries yield to the highest rate over the last 14 months and also the rising of the yield of 2 years note after an auction of it pushed it up to 0.283% from 0.233% I n the previous auction on 23rd of last April and this can be repeated with the medium term bonds which can be published next from US at least till the market realized the quantity of cutting of the current QE cutting which the Fed can do.
Last Friday the Fed’s Governor Bullard of St. Louis has said that this could be between 15B to 20B which can be equivalent of the impact of hiking the interest rate by 0.25% when the Fed is to decide to do it as he said.
This issue is expected to contain the market sentiment By god’s will however the Fed is not under pressure to do with this current tame inflation pressure in US and Ben Bernanke has tried also to say that we should not rush to do it when he gave in the same time last week the probability of cutting the QE this year to the markets in his testimony.
But it look that the Fed can refer to that in the next meetings and it can also change the limits language which have put previously of dragging down the unemployment rate to 6.5% if we are not to face inflation year rate at 2.5% which are looking to the market participants wide rates currently to be met this year.
While you can see that the greenback has managed to start to react positively recently with the US positive data as clues of tightening step to come to the monetary stance as what’s usual before the credit crisis which put the risk aversion in impact insight of the traders vision causing problem to the low yielding currencies in the minutes of the market sentiment improving such as the greenback.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

21/6/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The gold is still finding difficulty to get up over 1300$ again by the end of the week while the equities markets are still under pressure and bonds prices growing up after the fed’s recent hints that it is to start lowering its monthly pace of buying by the end of this year to halt it with the middle of next year if the economic indicators came in line with its forecasts. The Fed sees the unemployment to get down to be between 6.5% to 6.8% next year and the growth to be from 3 to 3.5% next year despite the governmental spending cuts.
In the same time and as what has been described in previous reports about the gold, the demand for it as a hedge against inflation is offset by growing expectation of withdrawing the Fed’s stimulus power as this prospect give the greenback much more support putting the gold under pressure not the opposite at these current economic conditions while further easing of the inflation pressure gives the Fed more time to wait and see with no worries about the inflation which have grown in May as what we have seen this week with the release of US CPI going up to 1.4% y/y as expected this week from 1.1% in April and these rates can help the Fed to give the economy what’s more by keeping its QE the longest possible boosting.
The greenback has found it easy after the Fed’s meeting to push the gold down below 1321$ which could hold in the middle of last April after massive characteristic way of falling on breaking of 1523$ which could contain its falling more than once since getting over it on 8th July 2011 of it and God willing, the gold can meet now in the case of falling further below 1269$ which could stave off its falling this week another supporting level at 1149 and its breaking can lead to 1044 before the psychological level at 1000 which getting up again from here can be met by resisting levels at some peaks within its recent falling way at 1302$, 1348$, 1375$, 1394$, 1421$, 1449$, 1476 before 1487$ which was the highest level and the formed lower high whereas it has managed to fall again after having a previous bottom at 1321$


Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

24/6/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The worries about the Chinese credit market could add to the equities markets woes and the tendency for buying the greenback as a safe haven. These worries have been increased substantially containing the market sentiment since last week with report came out of Fitch suggesting that there are accumulating risks looming the markets around the Chinese banking sector lack of transparency about that issue from the Chinese governmental side.
While the markets are waiting anxiously for interventions to come by God's will from PBOC which did not denied the risks but is still trying to calm the markets down by referring to spurring the growth at these circumstances while the inflation upside risks are still easing as we have watched Chinese CPI getting down previously to 2.1% in May from 2.4% in April while it has been foreseen to be up by 2.4%.
The gold is still struggling to have a placed over 1300$ again uselessly until now with this greenback rising across the broad trading now at 1288$.
The single currency which is eyeing on the demonstrations in Greece with long weekend has been extended for today too because of the holy spirit Monday holiday is trading now below 1.31 versus the greenback after June Germane IFO came as expected at 105.9 up from 105.7 in May while the British pound in trying to hold above its previous supporting level versus the greenback at 1.533 after opening this week on a gap trading below 1.54 after closing last week at 1.5415
The major European equities markets are down and the future US indexes are also down while these worries about the credit market are pushing the bonds yields up further adding more gains to them following the impact if the rising expectations of having a close halt this year of the Fed’s stimulating bond buying QE after the recent Fed’s meeting which dampened the both of the equities and bonds in US driving up their counterparts across the Atlantic fearing of the Fed’s withdrawing role of stimulating by buying lower amount of bonds which can hurt the growth outlook too with the current continuous easing of the governmental role for sustaining its financial deficit position.
The Fed has seen last week that the unemployment to get down to be between 6.5% to 6.8% next year and the growth to be from 3 to 3.5% next year despite the governmental spending cuts by God’s will.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

إرتفاعات العوائد على السندات تحد من الطلب على الذهب
 

إرتفاعات العوائد على السندات تحد من الطلب على الذهب

قلص الذهب من خسائره السوق و تمكن من الصعود مرة أخرى فوق مستوى ال 1200 دولار بعد أن هبط خلال الجلسة الأسيوية ل 1180 نتيجة تتابع تراجعاته التي بدات بشكل واضح عقب تصريحات رئيس الفدرالي بن برنناكي الإسبوع الماضي بشأن مُستقبل سياسة الدعم الكمي الحالية لفدرالي فقد توقع خفض لمُعدل شراء الفدرالي الشهري عن ال 85 مليار دولار المعمول بها حالياً و التي تشمل 40 مليار دولار في الأداوت المالية على أساس عقاري كما أعلن من خلال إجتماع 24 أكتوبر الماضي و الذي أتبعها في الثاني عشر من ديسمبر الماضي تخصيص 45 مليار دولار شهرياً من إذون الخزانة الأمريكية كما صرح أيضاً بن برنناكي عن إحتمال التوقف الكامل عن الدعم الكمي مع منتصف العام القادم حال تحسن الأداء الإقتصادي كما هو متوقع من جانب الفدرالي إن شاء الله.
فقد أدت هذة التصريحات من التحقق من التوقعات التي تذايدت بهذا الشان مؤخراً و أدت لضغط على مؤشرات الأسهم الأمريكية الرئيسية لتتراجع عن مستوياتها القياسية التي سجلتها في الثاني و العشرين من الشهر الماضي كما تراجعت في نفس الوقت السندات و إرتفعت عوائدها بشكل ملحوظ ليس فقط على المدى المتوسط بل ايضاً على المدى القصير فقد رأينا هذا الإسبوع إنتهاء مذاد على إصدار من إذون الخزانة الأمريكية لمدة 3 اشهر على إرتفاع ل 0.06% من 0.045% في المذاد الذي يسبقه كما إرتفع العائد من خلال إصدار جديد من إذون الخزانة لمدة 6 أشهر ل 0.105% من 0.075% في المذا الذي يسبقه بعد أن جاء مذاد على إصدار لمدة 5 سنوات ل 4% من 1.04% في المذاد الذي يسبقه بينما يظل الطلب على الذهب دون عائد ما أدى لعزوف المُستثمرين عن الطلب على الذهب حتى في حالات تراجع المُخاطرة مُفضلين الدولار و أذون الخزانة الأمريكية.
بينما يتراجع الطلب على الذهب كتحوط ضد التضخم في نفس الوقت بينما تظل الضغوط التضخمية دون المستوى المُقلق من جانب و من جانب لأخر يُنتظر ان يعمل إرتفع التضخم على دفع الفدارالي لخفض مُعدل شرائه الشهري ما يعمل على دعم الدولار أكثر من الطلب على الذهب مع هذة الأوضاع الحالية فقد أظهرت البيانات مؤخراً إرتفاع مؤشر اسعار المُستهلكين في الولايات المُتحدة ل 1.4% في مايو من 1.1% في إبريل الماضي كما رأينا بلأمس مؤشر الأسعار لإرنفاق الشخصي على الإستهلاك يرتفع في مايو ل 1% سنوياً من 0.7% في إبريل بينما ظل دون إحتساب أسعار المواد الغذائية و الطاقة عند 1.1% كما كان في إبريل إلا أن هذة المُعدلات تظل دون المُعدل المُستهدف من الفدرالي لتضخم عند 2% سنوياً ما يجعله في غير عجله من أمره لتخفيض دعمه الكمي إلا أن التوقعات تصب حالياً في مصلحة إرتفاع هذة المُعدلات المُتدنية التي يصعب الانخفاض دونها.
كما جاء بيان إجمالي الناتج القومي للولايات المُتحدة لربع الأول هذا الإسبوع أيضاً ليُشير إلى نمو ب 1.8% سنوياً من 2.4% في قراءته السابق ما يُرجح إستمرار الفدرالي في دعمه الكمي اطول فترة ممكنه خاصةً في تراجع الإنفاق الحكومي بينما تترقب الأسواق لإسبوع القادم أيضاً بإذن الله لمعرفة المذيد عن أداء سوق العمل مع صدور تقرير سوق العمالة لشهر يونيو في الولايات المُتحدة و الذي كثيراً ما يؤثر على توجهات الفدرالي بشكل كبير لذلك و يُنتظر أن يصعب على الدولار الضغط على الذهب لإستقرار دون مستوى ال 1000 دولار للاونصة على سبيل المثال فمن المُتوقع ان تتم عملية خفض الفدرالي لدعمه الكمي بوتيرة تدريجية بينما يظل الذهب مُعرض لطلب لتصحيح خسائره الأخيرة بينما تُشير المؤشرات الفنية إلى إتجاهه لمنطقة التشبع البيعي على مستوى الساعة أيضاً.
بينما ينتظر الذهب بإن الله حالياً في حال مذيد من التراجع مقابلة منطقة دعم عند 1150 و التي تتقابل مع تصحيص فيبوناتشي بنسبة 61.8% من الصعود من 681 ل 1919 يليها في حال الكسر نقطة دعم اخرى عند 1041 ثم عند مستوى ال 1000 النفسي بينما يُنتظر ان يُقابل صعوده مرة اخرى من هنا بمقاومة عند 1255 ثم عند 1302 يليها 1348 ثم 1375 ثم 1394 ف 1423 ف 1449 ثم 1476 ثم 1494 حيثُ اعلى نقطة تمكن من الصعود إليها منذ كسره لنقطة دعم السابقة عند 1523 و هبوطه ل 1321 دولار للاونصة


خبير أسواق العملات/ وليد صلاح الدين محمد

م/00201224659143

البريد الإلكتروني/ [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]

4/7/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The single currency could get back to be traded around 1.30 psychological level by the ECB interest rate decision today and the press conference of its president Draghi which always follow it indicating its economic assessment to the current economic stance and its outlook.
The inflation which usually directs the ECB have come out recently showing that it has risen in June as the flash reading consumer price index of it has come at 1.6% from 1.4% in May from its bottom at 1.2% in April which encouraged the ECB to cut the interest rate by 0.25% to be at 0.5% while it is well known that that inflation yearly target of the ECB stands at 2%.
While the economic stance has not shown yet a substantial improving but just looking for a gradual pace of recovery from the current recession which has extended more than what was expected by the ECB itself which lowered its expectation of it this year 2 times this year and it is expected to show before today’s ECB meeting shrinking in the first quarter as the recent reading by 0.2% q/q and 1.1% y/y after shrinking also in the fourth quarter of last year by 0.6% q/q and 0.9% y/y while the unemployment in EU is still rising recording a new high in May at 12.2% from 12.1% in April.
We have seen also that there are improvements in the service and manufacturing sectors despite of EU PMI data of them which came lower than expected in June driving EU PMI composite to go up to 48.7 from 47.8 while the market was waiting for 48.9 but suggesting also that there is no expected easing movement to come today from the ECB which can see that it has a room to wait and see.
From another side, there can be a reference to a reaction by the ECB to the recent EU bonds yield which have grown up in a significant way recently following the US ones which reacted positively to the increasing expectations of having a Fed’s decision of cutting its monthly buying while the labor market is still giving positive signs can lead to falling of the unemployment rate below 7% and increasing of the economic growth momentum later next year by God’s will as what are mostly expected by the market participants currently.
So, the market will be closely watching the release of US Labor report of June this Friday which expected to show rising of the US non-farm payroll by 165k from 175k in May and decreasing of the unemployment rate to 7.5% from 7.6% in May after US ADP employment change of June came yesterday showing adding 188k Jobs while it was expected to add 160k from 134k in May.
By God's will, EURUSD can face now in the case of rising further resisting levels at 1.3031, 1.3102, 1.3150, 1.3253, 1.3305, 1.3433, 1.3519, 1.3598 before 1.3709 which has been reached in the beginning of last February after US non-farm payrolls of Jan which has shown adding 157k jobs has been revised down later to 119k following avoiding of the fiscal cliff in the beginning of this year supported the risk appetite in a remarked way while getting down from here can be supported again by the expectation of trimming the Fed’s monthly buying and can be met by supporting levels at 1.2918, 1.2837. 1.2820, 1.2796, 1.2734 before 1.2661 again whereas it could rebound after the market worries about Greece got down while breaking it too can lead to another supporting level at 1.2464.


Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

5/7/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]As what has been expected and mentioned in yesterday report, after the anticipated decision of the ECB of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, it has given a reference to the recent rising of the bonds yields in EU as it goes against its efforts of stimulating the economy which is looking for a path for even a gradual recovery to get out of the current persisting recession as we have seen yesterday too with the release of EU Q1 GDP final reading which has shown shrinking by 0.3% q/q from 0.2% in the recent reading and after shrinking by 0.6% in the last quarter of 2012.
The ECB has given the market a clear forward guidance that it is to keep the interest rate at its current level as long as it is possible if it is not to me cut again considering the option of driving the deposit rate below zero as a possibility it is able to do technically currently. This guidance was enough to push forward the European major stocks indexes with the US markets off yesterday helping DAX 30 to get over 8000 psychological level by the European session end before closing below it with tendency to get risky positions out of holding the European bonds which become less attractive generally after these comments.
The main point today that the ECB wanted to direct a message to the markets that it is not in a place to follow the Fed in its way which it has mentioned that it is about to go through of cutting its stimulating ample of liquidity it pumps monthly if the economic indicators are to come in line with its expectation showing increased momentum of improvements especially next year and falling of the unemployment rate by God’s will while the ECB is still facing down side risks capping its GDP from recording a quarterly expansion since the third quarter of 2011 when it has grown by only 0.2%.
The single currency is trading now around 1.29 versus the greenback after this reference while the forex market is waiting for the release of US Labor report of June which expected to show rising of the US non-farm payroll by 165k from 175k in May and decreasing of the unemployment rate to 7.5% from 7.6% in May after US ADP employment change of June came this week showing adding 188k Jobs while it was expected to add 160k from 134k in May.
By God's will, EURUSD can face now in the case of falling further supporting level at 1.2734 before 1.2661 again whereas it could rebound after the market worries about Greece got down last November while these worries can ascend again with the creditors troika representatives are existing now in Greece looking for more austerities measures to be implemented while the Greek street is still unrested and breaking below 1.2661 can open the way for another supporting level at 1.2464 while getting back up from here can be met by psychological resistance at 1.30 which can be followed by resisting levels at 1.3031, 1.3102, 1.3150, 1.3253, 1.3305, 1.3433, 1.3519, 1.3598 before 1.3709 which has been reached in the beginning of last February after US non-farm payrolls of Jan which has shown adding 157k jobs has been revised down later to 119k after avoiding of the fiscal cliff in the beginning of this year supporting the risk appetite in a remarked way weighed down on the greenback.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

تقرير العمالة لشهر يونيو في الولايات المُتحدة يُضيف مذيد من الدعم لدولار
 

إستطاع الدولار أن يجد الدعم لصعود أمام العملات الرئيسية مع صدور من الولايات المُتحدة تقرير العمالة لشهر يونيو ليُظهر إضافة 195 ألف وظيفة خارج القطاع الزراعي بينما كان المُنتظر إضافة 165 ألف بعد 175 الف وظيفة في مايو تم مراجعتهم ل 195 ألف أبضاً بينما جاء بيان مُعدل البطالة على إستقرار عند 7.6% خلال شهر يونيو كما كان في مايو في حين كان المُتوقع تراجع ل 7.5% كما كان في إبريل.
أما عن الأجور فقد أظهر التقرير إرتفاع متوسط الأجر على ساعة العمل في يونيو ب 0.4% شهرياً بينما كان المُتوقع إرتفاع ب 0.2% من دون تغيير في مايو تم مراجعته لإرتفاع ب 0.1% بإرتفاع سنوي ب 2.2% في ينوي بعد إرتفاع ب 2% في مايو كما جاء متوسط ساعات العمل في الإسبوع كما كان متوقعاً و كما كان في مايو و في إبريل عند 34.5 في يونيو.
ما أدى لتراجع لتراجع أسعار المواد الأوالية و خامات النفط بلإضافة لذهب أمام الدولار كما إرتفع العائد على السندات الحكومية لمدة 10 سنوات ل 2.69% في الأسواق الثانوية كما إرتفع العائد لمدة عامين 0.39% إلى الأن ذلك بلإضافة بلطبع لدعم مؤشرات الأسهم الرئيسية الأمريكية التي تُشير عقودها المُستقبلية اليوم لإرتفاع عند الإفتتاح بإذن الله ما ساعد ايضاً على دعم صعود العوائد على السندات بشكل عام مع الإتجاة لمخاطرة و تراجع الطلب على السندات مع تذايد إحتمال خفض الفدرالي لدعمه الكمي خلال هذا العام بإذن الله.
كما واصل اليورو تراجعه الذي بدائه أمام الدولار بلامس ليهبط ل 1.2812 بشكل مبدئي بعد هذة البيانات على إثر هذة البيانات بعد أن تعرض لضغط بلأمس بإشارة المركزي الاوروبي لإحتمال الإحتفاظ بسعر الفائدة عندج هذة المستويات المُتدنية و التحفيزية مع إحتمال خفضها دونها نظراً لما يُعانيه الإقتصاد الاوروبي الذي إنكمش في الربع الاول من هذا العام ب 0.3% من ضغوط بينما يظل المركزي الأوروبي مُستعد فنياً لخفض سعر الفائدة على الإيداع لما دون الصفر.
كما واصل الجنية الإسترليني تراجعه امام الدولار ليهبط ل 1.4854 نتيجة هذة البيانات و بعد أن أشار مارك كارني رئيس بنك إنجلترا الجديد بلأمس لقلق البنك من إرتفاع العوائد فيما يُشبه ما قام به المركزي الاوروبي ايضاً بينما يُعاني الإقتصاد البريطاني من تراجع مُعدلات النمو بشكل كبير بينما إتجه المُستثمرين لضغط على السندات مُتوقعين تراجعها و إرتفاع عوائدها في الفترة الأخيرة تباعاً مع تذايد إحتمالات خفض الفدرالي لمعدلات شرائة الكمي الشهرية مع تحسن النشاط الإقتصادي في الولايات المُتحدة ما دعم العوائد على سنداتها و هو ما حاول كل من المركزي الاوروبي و بنك إنجلترا الحد من تأثيره على العوائد على السندات الأوروبية و البريطانية بلإشارة لإختلاف الوضع الإقتصادي الذي يحكم السياسة النقدية بينهما و بين الولايات المُتحدة.
تمكن الدولار الأمريكي أيضاً من مواصلة الصعود أمام نظيره الكندي بهد هذة البيانات التي جائت أيضاً بلتزامن مع صدور تقرير العمالة الكندي لشهر يونيو الذي أظهر فقدان 400 وظيفة بينما كان المُتوقع فقدان 2.5 ألف وظيفة بعد إضافة في مايو 95 ألف حيُث الإرتفاع الأكبر من يناير 2009 كما ظل مُعدل البطالة عند 7.1% كما كان مُنتظراً و كما كان في مايو بعد تراجعه من 7.2% كما كان في إبريل.
كما إرتفع أيضاص الدولار أمام الين بطبيعة الحال ليضعد فوق مستوى ال 101 نظراً لما يُمثله الإقبال على المثخاطرة من ضغط ايضاً على الين بينما يدعم الدولار هذة البيانات التي تذيد من توقعات الاسواق بقيان الفدرالي بخفض قريب بإذن الله لمُعدل شرائه الشهري عما هو حالياً من ال 85 مليار دولار المعمول بها حالياً و التي تشمل 40 مليار دولار في الأداوت المالية على أساس عقاري كما أعلن من خلال إجتماع 24 أكتوبر الماضي و الذي أتبعها في الثاني عشر من ديسمبر الماضي تخصيص 45 مليار دولار شهرياً من إذون الخزانة الأمريكية.


خبير أسواق العملات/ وليد صلاح الدين محمد
م/00201224659143
البريد الإلكتروني/ [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]

9/7/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The US equities market has found its way to add more gains again driving the demand for bonds down and the US Treasuries yield up again despite the IMF estimation of the US growth this year which it has lowered to be 1.7% from 1.9% it has mentioned it April and for 2014 it has lowered its forecast too to be 2.7% from 3% it has Guessed in April. The IMF has lowered again its global growth forecast to be 3.1%this year from 3.3% it has previously estimated last April and it has also lowered its expectation of 2014 to be 3.8% from 4% it has foreseen last April.
The single currency has lost its previous supporting level versus the greenback at 1.2796 to be traded around 1.277 currently despite the 3 billion Euros disbursement approval to Greece from its creditors’ troika. The single currency has been already under pressure since last Thursday when the ECB has given the market a clear forward guidance that it is to keep the interest rate at its current level as long as it is possible if it is not to me cut again considering the option of driving the deposit rate below zero as a possibility it is able to do technically currently.
But it looks anyway that the market is getting ready for tomorrow minutes release of last 19th of June meeting of the Fed which can show tendency of cutting its monthly scale of buying while the US labor market is still giving improving signs as we have seen with June labor report which has shown reduction of the unemployment rate to 7.5% and increasing of the UN non-farm payroll by 195k jobs while the market was waiting for 175k with a revision of May reading to be 195k also from 165k has been released previously driving the US treasuries yields up broadly substantially. The IMF has lowered the growth forecast of EU and China too but it has seen the growth in Japan, Canada and UK is to get better.
By God's will, EURUSD can face now in the case of falling further supporting level at 1.2734 before 1.2661 again whereas it could rebound after the market worries about Greece got down last November and breaking of it can open the way for another supporting level at 1.2464 while getting back up from here can be met by resisting levels at 1.2931, 1.3031, 1.3102, 1.3150, 1.3253, 1.3305, 1.3433, 1.3519, 1.3598 before 1.3709 which has been reached in the beginning of last February.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

الذهب يجد مساحة أكبر لتصحيح خسائرة أمام الدولار مع تصريحات بن برنانكي
 

وجد الذهب الدعم بعد أن صرح رئيس الفدرالي بن برننانكي بأن الإقتصاد الأمريكي لايزال في إحتياج لأكبر قدر تحفيزي ممكن بينما أظهرت وقائع الإجتماع الأخير لفدرالي في التاسع عشر من الشهر الماضي أمل أغلب الأعضاء في تحسن افضل لأداء سوق العمالة في الولايات المُتحدة عن ما هو عليه حالياً بينما أظهر أغلب الأعضاء عدم تخوف من الضغوط التضخمية ما أدى لذيادة التوقعات بإحتفاظ الفدرالي بسياسة دعمه الكمي كما هي و لأطول فترة ممكنة عند ال 85 مليار دولار المعمول بها حالياً و التي تشمل 40 مليار دولار في الأداوت المالية على أساس عقاري كما أعلن من خلال إجتماع 24 أكتوبر الماضي و الذي أتبعها في الثاني عشر من ديسمبر الماضي تخصيص 45 مليار دولار شهرياً من إذون الخزانة الأمريكية.
لذلك تراجع الدولار أمام العملات الرئيسية بشكل واضح فقد عاد اليورو لصعود أمام الدولار فوق مستوى ال 1.31 بينما يتداول الجنية الإسترليني بلقرب من 1.515 مرة اخرى كما هبط الدولار أمام الين لمستوى ال 98.17 ما أدى لضغط على سوق الأسهم الياباني على الرغم من إتجاة العقود المُستقبلية لمؤشرات الأسهم الأمريكية لإرتفاع بعد هذة التصريحات التي يرى فيها المُتعاملين في الأسواق إتجاة اقوى مما كان متوقعاً لفدرالي لدعم الإقتصاد.
بينما وجد الذهب في هذة التصريحات الدعم بشكل مُباشر ليستقر فوق مستوى ال 1280 مُهدداً مستوى مقاومته السابق عند 1302 دولار للأونصة بلإختراق ما قد يُمكنه من إحداث تداخل مع الموجة الابطة السابقة التي إنتهت عند 1321 ما قد يُقلل من الضغط لأسفل بينما ينتظر الذهب بإذن الله في حال مواصلة الإرتداد لأعلى مواجهة مقاومة أخرى عند 1348 ثم 1375 ثم 1394 ف 1423 ف 1449 ثم 1476 ثم 1494 حيثُ اعلى نقطة تمكن من الصعود إليها منذ كسره لنقطة دعم السابقة عند 1523 و هبوطه ل 1321 أما في حال معاودة التراجع فلديه الان نقطة دعم عند 1242 ثم عند 1207 يليها 1180 حيثُ أدنى نقطة سجلها في الثامن و العشرين من الشهر الماضي منذ صعوده ل 1920 في السادس من سبتمبر 2011 يليها مقابلة نقطة دعم عند 1150 و التي تتقابل مع تصحيص فيبوناتشي بنسبة 61.8% من الصعود من 681 ل 1920 يليها في حال الكسر نقطة دعم اخرى عند 1041 ثم عند مستوى ال 1000 النفسي.
بينما تنتظر الأسواق معرفة المذيد عن التضخم في الولايات المُتحدة على المُستوى الإنتاجي قبل نهاية هذا الإسبوع بصدور مؤشر أسعار المُنتجين لشهر يونيو كما تنتظر صدور مؤشر أسعار المُستهلكين لنفس الشهر الإسبوع القادم بإذن الله بعد أن جاء عن شهر مايو الماضي على غرتفاع سنوي ب 1.4% من 1.1% في إبريل الماضي كما رأينا مؤخراً مؤشر الأسعار لإنفاق الشخصي على الإستهلاك يرتفع في مايو ل 1% سنوياً من 0.7% في إبريل بينما ظل دون إحتساب أسعار المواد الغذائية و الطاقة عند 1.1% كما كان في إبريل إلا أن هذة المُعدلات تظل دون المُعدل المُستهدف من الفدرالي لتضخم عند 2% سنوياً ما يجعله في غير عجله من أمره لتخفيض دعمه الكمي على الرغم من اغلب التوقعات تصب حالياً في مصلحة إرتفاع الضخم من هذة المُعدلات المُتدنية التي قد يصعب الانخفاض دونها.
لذلك قد يجد الذهب بعض الدعم خلال الفترة المقبلة بإذن الله خاصةً بعد أن تذايدت المخاوف أيضاً من تراجع أداء الإقتصاد الامريكي مؤخراً لينمو فقط خلال الربع الأول من هذا العام ب 1.8% سنوياً من 2.4% في قراءته السابق من 2.5% في قرائته الأولى ما يُرجح إستمرار الفدرالي في دعمه الكمي أطول فترة ممكنه خاصةً مع تراجع الإنفاق الحكومي بينما جاء هذا الإسبوع أيضاً ليتماشى مع هذا الإتجاة توقع صندوق النقد الدولي لنمو إقتصاد الولايات المُتحدة ب 1.7% من 1.9% كان يتوقعها في إبريل الماضي كما خفض توقعه لنمو الإقتصاد العالمي هذا العام ليكون ب 3.1% من 3.3% كان قد توقعها في إبريل الماضي بينما تتذايد المخاوف ايضاً بشان اداء الإقتصاد الصيني بعد اذمة السيولة ما بين البنوك الشهر الماضي و إرتفاع التضخم على المستوى الإستهلاكي في الصين الذي أظهره مؤشر اسعار المُستهلكين لشهر يونيو الماضي بإرتفاعه ل 2.7% سنوياً بينما كان المُنتظر 2.5$ من 2.1% فس مايو ما قد يحد من إمكانية بنك الصين الشعبي على دعم الإقتصاد من خلال سياسة نقدية تحفيزية بصورة أكبر.

خبير أسواق العملات/ وليد صلاح الدين محمد

م/00201224659143

البريد الإلكتروني/ [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]

22/7/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The gold breaking above 1300$ with the beginning of this week by this characteristic suggesting that the way done could be over at this time and there can be a way for getting back to 1348$ before 1396$ again after forming a bottom at 1180$ and a higher bottom at 1207$ to creep again stepping on 1267$ which could hold last week after failure to get over 1300$ making another higher low before succeeding to get over it by this way.
The Gold has been supported in its way to have a place above 1300$ again by the space of correction which has been given to it following Bernanke’s comments about holding the Fed’s QE as long as it can which has been followed by this testimony last week which has shown that the Fed’s is not precommiting about the QE as it looks and it is to wait for the economic data to come to move forward making the market participants to respeculate the time of the QE ending as it has become harder to be with the middle of 2014 as it had been priced before on the recent Fed’s meeting overcome on last 19th of June.
There was no a main event to direct the gold but just a modern talking about revising the permission to the US investment banks which has been given in 2003 to trade commodities with expected starting of discussions about this issue tomorrow in the senate banking committee by God’s will.
The market is to be waiting for the US housing data and durable goods this week but the main event is still to be the first reading of US GDP of Q2 which is to come in the last day of this month with a new Fed’s meeting by God’s will and until that the main market driver can be the Fed’s officials talking and the talking about the inflation upside risks which can be also monitored closely after last month rising of US CPI to 1.8%y/y from 1.4% in May from 1.1% in April while the Fed’s yearly target is 2% and it has referred previously to rising 0.5% over this rate as a clue of ending its QE policy too.
In this same time, the greenback can be depressed by surpassing of last 22nd highs of the US major stocks indexes which can open the way for new highs with increasing speculations of longer holding of the Fed’s QE supporting the investors for taking risks.
While the markets can find out in Abe’s strong winning of the upper house in Japan a way for further financial stimulation efforts and supporting to BOJ to go on in its ultra stimulating monetary base putting pressure again on the JPY supporting taking risks in the equities markets specially the Japanese one after getting under pressure following BOJ upgrading of its economic outlook which decreased the speculations of more easing steps to come.
Kind Regards[/LEFT]

The Fed has no problem in keeping the QE at 85$B monthly
 

[LEFT]The Fed has no problem in keeping the QE at 85$B monthly
The Fed has signaled yesterday that there are less worries about keeping the QE on with no cutting of it amid benign inflation pressure with its yearly rate is still below 2.5% which can push the fed forward to start cutting it and also with the unemployment rate is still well above the 6.5% which it is still repeating as a target of it with no revision.
The statement briefly gives a leeway for the greenback to get down across the broad with the fed interest in pressing further on the mortgage rates and the treasuries yields and from another side, it gives the investors an excuse to sell the greenback favoring taking risks.
The gold as a precious metal can get a higher place as long as this sentiment can persist in the markets and generally the commodities can also as long as The Fed spurring investment efforts for getting the economic activities growing up faster are still on.
God willing, we will be waiting by the end of this week the US Labor report of July as the first clue of the next Fed’s meeting in September and the weak data can cause renewed pressure on the greenback while getting down further with the unemployment rate can push it up.
We have also today an ECB meeting and it is expected to press on the need on the quicker growth and it may hint again about the possibility of more easing actions to come after its recent forwarded reference which put weights on the single currency previously but more than that from the ECB can cause problems to the single currency specially with the EU unemployment rate above 12% and HICP below 2% yearly.
BOE will be ready also to give more about its monetary policy with the second meeting of Mark Carney as a chief of it and the market has actually started to push the British pound down before it with his new mode of representing texts sending out signals about its current assessment and future expectations directly after it increasing the volatility of the cable in the forex market.
The gold breaking above 1300$ Since the beginning of last week is still supporting it technically and it has kept this solid shape this week too with let below this psychological giving it’s the look of a support after it had been a resistance before and the persisting of this case can open the door for surpassing more resisting levels and there can be started by 1348$ again then 1375$ before another strong one at 1423$ which can be followed by 1476$ before 1487$ whereas the highest level and the formed lower high it has managed to fall from again after having a previous bottom at 1321$ to start falling down again and one a continuation of this falling down the gold can meet supporting level at the psychological level at 1300$ and the breaking of it can be met by another supporting level at 1267$ then 1242$ before 1207$ which can be followed by its formed bottom which could bounce from at 1180$ on 28th of last June.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

13/8/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]The release of Q2 GDP of Japan could contain the current market sentiment to encourage the traders to wait for a bottom again of USDJPY to restart buying it. USDJPY has broken its previous resistance at 96.95 easily by the Japanese session. After inability of the Japanese yen to press on the greenback to get down below 96 several times recently.
The Japanese economy has grown by 2.6%y/y and 0.6% q/q while the market was waiting for 3.6% yearly and 0.9% quarterly after cheeriness followed the figures of the first quarter which came previously with growing by 3.8% yearly and 1% quarterly to calm down the pace of the Japanese yen depreciation but now after Q2 figures the door is opened for more stimulating measures by BOJ monetary base and also by the Japanese government which can put aside the recent emerging efforts of sustaining its financial stance by imposing higher sales taxes as that can tackle the consuming pace and increase the worries about the pace of recovery in Japan persisting the deflation which it is fighting with BOJ and By God’s will, waiting for the governmental officials’ comments can forward more guiding references of doing what’s ever possible to get rid of this stance which can cause troubles again to the Japanese yen.
From another side, the greenback is still looking tied by the prospects changes of cutting the Fed’s QE which have started to contain the market sentiment and its movements against major currencies obviously since Ben Bernanke’s reference to this possibility to be started this year in his semiannual testimony in front of the congress financial committee.
But anyway now, the market is pricing on such an action and that stance is looking obvious to the followers of the recent movement of the gold which is one of the most sensitive instruments against the greenback related to this policy which could lead to push it up to its all time high on 6th September 2011 before easing back to this level.
The Fed has signaled too in its last meeting on the last day of last month that there are less worries about keeping the QE on with no cutting of it amid benign inflation pressure as its yearly rate is still below 2.5% giving it a space of holding its monetary stimulation plans longer with the unemployment rate is still well above the 6.5% which it has been repeated as a target of it with no revision.
As what has been mentioned in the recent report following that meeting The Fed’s statement briefly could actually give a leeway for the greenback to ease back across the broad with this clear Fed’s interest in pressing further on the mortgage rates and the treasuries yields and from another side, it gives the investors an excuse to sell the greenback favoring taking risks with these stimulating efforts.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

22/8/2013 - The Current Market Sentiment
 

[LEFT]After last week release of US jobless claim raised the expectations of having tapering of the Fed’s QE next month, yesterday minutes of the last Fed’s meeting have brought back the dependency on the economic improvement as it has left the door opened for everything.
So, the focusing is expected to be back on the economic indicators and specially the unemployment data with the next release of US weekly jobless claims and August labor report after July report which came with fewer than expected added jobs out of the farming sector by adding 162k while the market was waiting for adding 184k to dampen the optimism which resulted from the substantial progress of US ISM manufacturing index of July which rose to the highest level since April 2011 to 55.4 from 50.9 in June after falling into the contraction area in May by coming at 49.
From another side, we have seen in August rising of US yearly consumer price index to 2% y/y which is the highest since last Feb showing another growing pressure on the Fed to reduce its 85$b monthly buying of QE as the fed’s yearly target is 2% and it has repeated in its recent statements that it is to be tolerant watching this rate to grow 0.5% above this yearly target before start cutting this cheap money monthly pumping.
The greenback has found strength across the broad after these minutes which have shown no rush to cutting the Fed’s stimulating plan giving higher probability to the market of keeping the QE as it is in September too by God’s will.
The single currency has eased back to 1.3330 and the cable is still retreating to1.56 area during the Asian session while the greenback is trying to find away to 98 versus the Japanese yen despite the losses of the equities markets in US and Japan which usually dampen the demand for it.
The gold has managed to test back the area of 1350s$ as a supporting zone again after failing to have a place over1380$ several times this week with no clues yet from Jackson hole to direct the market which is preparing to look into the next economic data to come out from US by God’s will.
So, God willing the market sentiment is expected to be contained today by the release of US initial weekly jobless claim which has fallen to 320k last week and further falling can trigger more prospects of having a cut of QE in US next month while the single currency is waiting for the release of the preliminary figures of EU PMI of the manufacturing sector and service sector of August.
By god’s will, The single currency can meet now its way of easing versus the greenback a supporting area between 1.3322 and 1.331 which could hold since last week and breaking it can be followed by meeting a lower support at 1.3205 before 1.3064 and its breaking can lead to 1.2992 again while rising again from here can be met by a resistance at 1.3451 which the highest recorded level this week and since it has started to rose from its recent bottom which has been formed at 1.2754 on 9th of last July while getting over 1.3451 is expected to open the door for meeting higher resisting levels at 1.3515, 1.3595 before 1.3709 which is the top of this year until now and it has been reached in the beginning of last February.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]
[url]http://www.fx-recommends.com[/url]
[/LEFT]

الدولار يجد مذيد من السهولة في الصعود أمام الين مع تحسن شهية المخاطرة
 

إستطاع الدولار الإحتفاظ بمكاسبه أمام الين بينما تنازل عنها أمام اليورو و الجنية الإسترليني خلال جلسة الأمس بينما لايزال الين تحت ضغط إحتمال إضافة بنك اليابان مذيد من الخطوات التحفيزية بعد أن جاء نمو الإقتصاد الياباني دون لتوقعات في الربع الثاني من هذا العام بذيادة سنوية 2.6% و ربع فصلية ب 0.6% بينما كان من المُنتظر 3.6% بشكل سنوي و 0.9% بشكل ربع فصلي ما أسفر عن إرتفاع الدولار أمام الين من دون ال 96 لهذة المستويات الحالية في الأسابيع القليلة الماضية بينما كان الدولار تحت ضغط أمام العملات الأوروبية الأخرى مع ظهور بيانات إقتصادية تُشير إلى تحسن في أداء الإقتصاد الأوروبي و خروجه من حالة الإنكماش الإقتصادي.
لذلك كان أنسب الازواج لشراء الدولار أمام الين مع العملات الأوروبية أمام الين لتعويض تراجع الدولار أمام الين في بعض الأحيان خلال هذة الفترة مع تراجع شهية المخاطرة لذلك بلامس كان طريق الدولار أمام الين سهل في الصعود مع تحسن شهية المُخاطرة و عودة أسواق الأسهم في الولايات المتحدة و اليابان لصعود بعد صدور يوم الاربعاء وقائع أخر إجتماعات الفدرالي الذي اظهر حالة من عدم تسرع في الإتجاة لخفض الدعم الكمي مع إعتماد الفدرالي على البيانات الإقتصادية القادمة بإذن الله لتحرك دون قرارات إستباقية فلايزال التضخم لا يُمثل ضغط عليه بينما لايزال يتعافى سوق العمالة بوتيرة تدريجية لذلك ذكر مرة أخرى إستهداف الوصول بمعدل البطالة ل 6.5% و المحافظة على التضخم عند مُعدل دون 2.5% سنوياً أي اكبر من المعدل السنو لمستهدف لفدرالي ب 0.5% ليستمر الفدرالي في الإحتفاظ بسياسة دعمه الكمي كما هي و لأطول فترة ممكنة عند ال 85 مليار دولار المعمول بها حالياً و التي تشمل 40 مليار دولار في الأداوت المالية على أساس عقاري كما أعلن من خلال إجتماع 24 أكتوبر الماضي و الذي أتبعها في الثاني عشر من ديسمبر الماضي تخصيص 45 مليار دولار شهرياً من إذون الخزانة الأمريكية.
بينما تنتظر الأسواق الأن التعرف على مقدار ما سيتجة إلية الفدرالي من خفض في حال القيام بذلك في إجتماع السابع عشر و الثامن عشر من سبتمبر القادم بإذن الله بعد أن تذايدت التوقات بقيامة بذلك بعد هبوط طلبات إعانات البطالة لادنى مستوياتها في سبع سنوات و صعود مؤشر ISM لمُديرين المُشترايات داخل القطاع الصناعي خلال شهر يوليو الماضي بشكل قوي ل 55.4 حيثُ درجة التوسع الأعلى منذ فبراير 2011 فما صدر عن محافظين الفدرالي بهذا الشأن غير واضح بإستثناء محافظ الفدرالي جيمس بالارد عن سان لويز الذي أشار مؤخراً إلى أن يكون مقدار خفض الفدرالي لمعدل شراء الفدرالي الشهري من المُنتظر ان يكون ما بين 15 ل 20 مليار دولار من 85 مليار حالياً في حال أن قرر القيام بذلك الخفض بلفعل فذلك يُعادل كما قال تأثير خطوة برفع سعر الفائدة ب 0.25% في تقديره.
بينما لايزال ينتظر الدولار أمام الين بإذن الله في حال مواصلة الإرتفاع نقطة مقاومة عند 99.96 عند مستوى ال 100 النفسي الذي يليه مقاومة أخرى عند 100.83 يليها 101.56 ثم 102.51 قبل مقابلة 103.72 مرة أخرى حيثُ القمة التي كونها في الثاني و العشرين من مايو الماضي و بدأ منها تراجعه ل 93.75 بينما التي إرتد منها لاعلى من جديد بينما يُنتظر في حال العودة لتراجع نقطة دعم عند 96.9 ثم 96.38 ف 95.79 ثم 93.75 مرة اخرى الت يليها 92.56 بينما يتقابل الدولار أمام الين مع إمتداد الخط الهابط من 103.72 ل 101.56 و هو ما قد يؤدي كسره لمذيد من التسارع في الصعود بعد كسره بلأمس مقاومتة السابقة عند 98.64 مع كسر متوسطة المُتحرك ل 200 وحدة زمنية على الأربع ساعات من أسفل لأعلى.

خبير أسواق العملات/ وليد صلاح الدين محمد
م/00201224659143
البريد الإلكتروني/ [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]

التخوف من الوضع في سوريا يُلقي بظلاله على الأسواق و يدعم إرتفاع الذهب
 

تواصل الإتجاة لتجنب المُخاطرة اليوم أيضاً مع ترقب الأسواق لضربة عسكرية من حلف الناتو لنظام السوري ما قد يؤدي لتأجُج النزاع في هذة المنطقة الساخنة من العالم بينما لا يؤمن رد فعل النظام السوري و من يُعاونه في حين يُنتظر أن يكون توجية هذة الضربة خارج نطاق الامم المُتحدة دون موافقة مجلس الأمن ما أدى لتسارع في الطلب على الذهب مع إرتفاع لسعر النفط الذي يمر أغلب صادراته بلقرب من هذا النزاع في منطقة الشرق الأوسط فيعتبر تحرك سعر النفط من أهم العوامل التي تُحرك سعر الذهب ناهيك عن الطلب على الذهب نفسه مع تجنب المخاطرة.
فقد توالت تراجعات بورصات العالم اليوم و بشكل واضح فقد شهدت الجلسة الأوروبية إنخفاض جماعي لكل مؤشرات أسهمها الرئيسية بعد تراجع خلال الجلسة الاسيوة لنظيرتها الأسيوية بينما تُشير العقود المُستقبلية لمؤشرات الأسهم الأمريكية لتراجع بعد إغلاق جلسة الأمس الأمريكية على أدنى نقطة لها منذ صعودها لأعلى مُستوياتها القياسية في الثاني من الشهر الجاري عندما وصل ستندارد أند بورز 500 ل 1709 بينما أغلق بلأمس عند 1630 بينما تذداد حال التجنب المخاطرة و عدم التأكد من جانب أخر مع إنتظار بداية مناقشات الكونجرس في التاسع من الشهر القادم بإذن الله فقد أرسل وزير المالية الأمريكي خطاب للكونجرس هذا الإسبوع يوضح فيه أن الدين العام في الولايات المُتحدة من المُنتظر أن يصل ل 16.7 ترليون دولار بحلول منتصف أكتوبر القادم بإذن الله ما يُمثل ضغط على صانعي القرار في الكونجرس للعمل على توافق بشأن رفع حد الدين العام و التفاهم بشأن التخفيض النفقات الحكومية و دعم مواردها فلايزال يضغط الجمهوريين من أجل الحد من النفقات الحكومية بشكل أكبر بينما يُنتظر أن يكون قدر السيولة لدى وزارة الخزانة في هذا التوقيت حوالي 50 مليون دولار لتمويل الحكومة و هو قدر من السيولة لا يمكنه أن يصمد لمدى طويلة أمام إحتياجتها بينما تقوم الوزارة حالياً كما سبق و صرح بتمويل الحكومة بإتخاذ تدابير محاسبية حتى إنتهاء الكونجرس من التوصل لقرار لرفع حد هذا الدين خلال الشهر القادم بإذن الله بينما تترقب وكالات التصنيف الإئتماني بداية هذة المحاداثات في التاسع من الشهر القادم بإذن الله.
فقد قامت ستندارد اند بورز بتخفيض التصنيف الإئتماني للولايات المتحدة في 2011 ل AA+ من AAA لنفس هذا الشأن ما ادى لضغط قوي على الدولار حينها إلا أن التوصل لإتفاق في أغسطس من نفس ذلك العام لرفع هذا الحد ساعد الدولار على الصعود مرة أخرى أمام العملات الرئيسية بعد الضغط كان عليه قبل ذلك الإتفاق فقد كان اليورو على سبيل المثال مُستقر في التداول فوق مستوى ال 1.40 أمام الدولار قبل أن يعود و يهبط دونها بعد التوصل لإتفاق أعاد الهدوء للأسواق و الثقة في الوضع الإئتماني في الولايات المُتحدة و بلتالي الدولار و الأصول الدولارية بشكل عام بعد ان تذايدت العوائد مع تخوف الأسواق على الوضع الإئتماني و هو ما قد تواجهها الأسواق إن شاء الله حال فشل هذة المفاوضات و تعرض الولايات المُتحدة للافلاس مع مذيد من التخفيضات الإئتمانية ما قد يرجع بلسلب على الوضع الإقتصادي الذي لايزال في إحتياج لدعم الحكومة المالي قدر الإمكان بينما تُطالب بخفض نفقاتها و دعم مواردها.
فقد وجد الذهب الدعم اليوم لإختراق مستوى مقاوته السابق الذي صمد بلأمس عند 1423 دولار للأونصة ليصل خلال الجلسة الأوروبية ل 1433 دولار للأونصة بينما ينتظره الأن بإذن الله في حال مواصلة هذا الصعود نقطة مقاومة أخرى عند 1449 ثم 1476 ثم 1494 حيثُ أعلى نقطة تمكن من الصعود إليها منذ كسره لنقطة دعم السابقة عند 1523 و هبوطه ل 1321 أما في حال معاودة التراجع فلديه الان نقطة دعم 1392 دولار للاونصة التي صمدت خلال هذا الإسبوع يليها 1352 التي نجح في إختبارها كنقطة دعم بعد ان كانت تثمثل مقاومة حجبت إرتفاعه منذ ان هبط دونها في التاسع عشر من يونيو الماضي يليها 1315 ثم 1267 التي ثبتت بنجاح دون كسر منذ صعد فوقها في الحادي عشر من الشهر الماضي يليها نقطة دعم أخرى عند 1242 ثم عند 1207 يليها 1180 حيثُ أدنى نقطة سجلها في الثامن و العشرين من يونيو الماضي منذ صعوده ل 1920 في السادس من سبتمبر 2011 يليها مقابلة نقطة دعم عند 1150 و التي تتقابل مع تصحيص فيبوناتشي بنسبة 61.8% من الصعود من 681 ل 1920 يليها في حال الكسر نقطة دعم اخرى عند 1041 ثم عند مستوى ال 1000 النفسي.


خبير أسواق العملات/ وليد صلاح الدين محمد
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البريد الإلكتروني/ [email]mail@fx-recommends.com[/email]