منتديات تداول - عرض مشاركة واحدة

محمد السويد · 26-01-2004, 03:43 AM

[00:22 EUR/USD Just Above NY Low Of 1.2565, Rate Cut Concerns, G7] Tokyo, Jan
26. Expectations of a renewed push on the part of EZ-officials for an agreement
on currencies at the upcoming G7 meeting on February 6-7 as well as a possible
interest rate cut by the ECB to offset the economic effects of recent EUR moves
up were major factors behind the sell-off from a high of 1.2776 in London to
1.2565 in New York. Cross sales figured largely, with EUR/JPY selling off very
sharply as well. Dealers were just becoming comfortable with the view that the
ECB neither had the will nor the wherewithal to act except verbally on EUR
strength. This no longer seems to be the case with dealers eyeing possible
interest rate cuts as well as direct FX intervention, even if done solo, to stem
EUR/USD rises above 1.30. How quick the pendulum swings.
With EUR/USD hovering just above Friday lows, the bias is likely to remain down
in the immediate term though there are those who suggest long liquidation is
perhaps over. The sell-off Friday does suggest significant position adjustments
did take place but IMM CTA data shows long EUR positions having increased in the
week ended January 20 to 28,243 from 26,937 contracts, still a hefty sum. Some
stops are likely below 1.2550-60. 1.2549 was the low seen in Asia on January 21.
Next support comes in at 1.2505, 61.8% Fibo retracement of 1.2335-1.2775. Upside
resistance today is eyed at 1.2600-10. EUR/USD currently trades 1.2567/72.
--Haruya.Ida@thomson.com /SH

[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]

26-01-2004, 03:43 AM	#20
محمد السويد خبير عملات تاريخ التسجيل: Apr 2003 المشاركات: 1,713	[00:22 EUR/USD Just Above NY Low Of 1.2565, Rate Cut Concerns, G7] Tokyo, Jan 26. Expectations of a renewed push on the part of EZ-officials for an agreement on currencies at the upcoming G7 meeting on February 6-7 as well as a possible interest rate cut by the ECB to offset the economic effects of recent EUR moves up were major factors behind the sell-off from a high of 1.2776 in London to 1.2565 in New York. Cross sales figured largely, with EUR/JPY selling off very sharply as well. Dealers were just becoming comfortable with the view that the ECB neither had the will nor the wherewithal to act except verbally on EUR strength. This no longer seems to be the case with dealers eyeing possible interest rate cuts as well as direct FX intervention, even if done solo, to stem EUR/USD rises above 1.30. How quick the pendulum swings. With EUR/USD hovering just above Friday lows, the bias is likely to remain down in the immediate term though there are those who suggest long liquidation is perhaps over. The sell-off Friday does suggest significant position adjustments did take place but IMM CTA data shows long EUR positions having increased in the week ended January 20 to 28,243 from 26,937 contracts, still a hefty sum. Some stops are likely below 1.2550-60. 1.2549 was the low seen in Asia on January 21. Next support comes in at 1.2505, 61.8% Fibo retracement of 1.2335-1.2775. Upside resistance today is eyed at 1.2600-10. EUR/USD currently trades 1.2567/72. --Haruya.Ida@thomson.com /SH [IFR Forex Watch] [SQUAWK BOX]