The Single currency came under pressure after the ECB president Mr. Trichet had come back to very closely watching the prices from strong vigilance warranted in monitoring the prices which has been seen as a softer tone can not signal another tightening decision by .25% in next June meeting after keeping it unchanged in May meeting yesterday. The single currency has tumbled across the broad after the ECB assessment falling below more than 3 figures and half versus the greenback to be traded currently around 1.455 waiting for a clear break of the trend line support extended from 1.2873 to 1.3425 versus the greenback which is waiting today for the release of US Labor report of April after dovish release of April ADP Employment Change which came at just 179k from 201 in March while the market was waiting for 200k and another disappointing release of US weekly initial jobless claim rising to 474k following 429k from 404k a week earlier triggering a pessimistic sentiment in the market before this report which is expected to contain decreasing of US non-farm payroll of April to 183k from 216k in March keeping the unemployment rate at 8.8% as it was in March. The single currency can test another support soon at 1.4493 in the case of further setting back and the breaking of it can open the door for 1.4155 again then 1.4017 whereas it has ended its previous correction above this aforementioned trend line support.
The Aussi also has been exposed to a strong correction since the release of April Australian commodities prices which have fallen yearly to 32.3% from 42.2% in March and also following the weak release of April Australian retail sales which came down in April by .5% after rising in March by .5% while the market was waiting for .6% to exacerbate the appetite of buying it while the commodities prices have been easing back this week from another side.
The Aussi has been exposed to a firmer correction than the single currency versus the greenback after reaching 1.101 in the beginning of this week and in the case of bouncing and rising back from here, it should meet a resistance at 1.0733 then 1.0875 then 1.0931 then 1.101 again as it has actually broken the trend line support extended from .9704 to 1.0441 earlier and after reaching 1.0535, it has formed a lower high below this trend line support at 1.0733.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
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