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قديم 29-06-2006, 04:53 PM   #23
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Fed Seems Set to Raise Rates Again Today
Thursday June 29, 8:07 am ET



By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Fed Seems Set to Raise Rates Again Today With Quarter-Point Hike Expected


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve is wrapping up a two-day meeting today, and analysts say there is little doubt the central bank will raise rates for the 17th consecutive time.
While some feared the Fed might boost rates by a half-point, most economists were looking for another quarter-point increase. That would push the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, to 5.25 percent, the highest level in more than five years.

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That increase would also mean a rise in the borrowing costs for millions of Americans, with banks' prime lending rate rising by a similar quarter-point to 8.25 percent, also the highest level in more than five years.

The Fed has been on a steady campaign to raise rates to fight inflation since its first increase in June 2004 when the funds rate was at a 46-year low of 1 percent.

The Fed has been remarkably consistent over the past two years in its actions on interest rates, but many analysts believe it has grown erratic in its ability to explain those actions.

Many are putting the blame on new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has sent markets on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks with what appeared to be conflicting statements over the future course of rates.

Bernanke, a former Princeton economics professor and chief economist for the Bush White House, took over from Fed legend Alan Greenspan on Feb. 1. His first five months on the job have seen some rocky times.

Bernanke sent markets soaring after an April 27 appearance before Congress' Joint Economic Committee when he suggested the Fed might take a pause in its long rate-hike campaign.

Worried that Wall Street might perceive him as too dovish in fighting inflation, Bernanke sought to set the record straight by giving a tough anti-inflation speech on June 5. That contributed to a 199-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average as investors feared there could be a number of rate hikes to come.

Economists said Bernanke, in an effort to be more open about the Fed's thinking, is actually increasing confusion.

"He's talking way too much and he says one thing one day and then says something entirely different the next day," said Martin Regalia, chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and a former Fed economist. "This is not increasing transparency. It is increasing confusion."

Some economists said it is unfair to make Bernanke take all of the blame. Part of the problem, they contend, is that after 18 years of learning to decipher Greenspan's almost impenetrable prose, markets are having trouble getting used to Bernanke's more straightforward speaking style.

"Greenspan was rather cryptic. Bernanke is much more open and the result is that the markets are over-interpreting everything he says," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor, said, "With Greenspan, who was quite obscure, the deal was to look at his speeches with a magnifying glass until you found the one word that told you what he was signaling. Bernanke is not like that. He says what he means."

Many analysts believe that Fed officials will raise rates by a quarter-point this week and signal that they are still concerned about inflation, which would leave the door open for another increase at the Aug. 8 meeting.

But analysts are split on whether there will be a rate increase in August, saying it will depend on whether the economy has slowed enough by then to ease the Fed's inflation concerns.

With housing and consumer spending both cooling, many analysts believe the slowdown will be unmistakable at that point, and that the Fed may well call a halt to the rate boosts.

But analysts said they don't expect the Fed at this week's meeting to give a strong signal one way or the other on their future actions.

"We are at a turning point right now and not even the Fed can be sure how much more needs to be done," said David Jones, head of DMJ Advisors, a Denver-based consulting firm

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في ظهرهذا اليوم الموافق 29-6-2006م سيكون اجتماع للمصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي وكان هناك بعض الشكوك لبعض المحلليين بان تكون هناك زيادة ربع نقطة وهي الاعلى منذ خمس سنوات والسابعة عشر على التوالي خلال هذا الاجتماع لتصل بذلك الى 5.25% كما ذهب البعض الى ابعد من ذلك حيث خيشي بعض المحلليين ان تكون هناك زيادة نصف نقطة خلال هذا الاجتماع الامر الذي سيزيد من نسبة تكاليف الاقتراض لملايين الامريكان وفي حالة رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا الاجتماع فهي ضمن سياسة المصرف الاحتياطي الفدارلي لمحاربة التضخم التي بدأت في يوليو من عام 2004م والتي كانت في ادنى مستوياتها منذ 46 سنه حيث كانت 1% .
كما عبر بعض المحليين والاقتصاديين عن قلقة بان تكون هناك ارتفاعات مفاجأة لمعدل سعر الفائدة خلال الاشهر القادمة .

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