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العودة   منتديات تداول > الادارة والاقتصاد > مـــنــــتــــــدى السلع و العملات والنفط



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قديم 22-12-2010, 08:06 AM   #31
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
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افتراضي 22/12/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The British pound has been under pressure across the broad undermined by more than expected publish sector net borrowing was expected to be just 16.8b Stg but it has shocked the markets by 22.3b Stg in November from 8.6b Stg in October. The cable traded below 1.55 again reaching 1.5434 breaking below 1.547 level whereas it has found support last week. The key supporting level is still away from here at 1.528 while the next resistance should be at 1.5655 then 1.584 and 1.5907 where it has formed its main recent top and today we wait for UK Q3 GDP figure which is expected to be up by .8% and also UK current account deficit which is expected to reach 8.4B Stg in the third quarter from 7.383B Stg in the second quarter and also the BOE recent meeting minutes which are expected to show a split of talking about adding more funds to its current 200B Stg buying bonds plan but the currencies market speculators really want to know more about their appreciation of the inflation upside risks pressure which cap them from adding more funds to this plan amid depreciation of the pound value recently. The BOE has kept its plan unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting unfazed of the Fed's quantitive easing policy which got into its second round and the ECB which declared its readiness to buy more sovereign governmental bonds preventing the debt contagion in the Euro zone providing the required money for giving stability of its financially market for spurring spending can move the growth faster with a lower costs of borrowing than what can be paid the ailing countries of debt in the normal bonds auctions without the ECB supporting but the MPC is still looking worries about the potential risks outlook of inflation with UK CPI reading still above 3% yearly.
The single currency is still in a weak position with market worries about the debt contagion in the Euro zone and their countries bonds auctions results and specially Spain, Portugal and Ireland and the credit rating downgrading of these debt ailing countries as we have seen Moody's downgrading of Irish long tern debt five notches to B with a negative outlook from Aa2 by announcing that it can downgrade the Spanish long term debt rating of Aa1 too last week threating about 30 Spanish banks of downgrading of their rating this week watching the Portugal’s debt for a possible downgrading by 2 notches too containing the market sentiment which shrugged off the better than expected economic data from Germany which is driving the EU economic growth up as we have seen recently the germane IFO business climate recording new historical new high in December at 109.9 since the beginning of it in 1991 after it has made 109.3 in November and the germane retails sales figure of October rising up by 2.3% monthly while it was expected to be up by just 1.3% after falling in September by 1.8% which helped EU consumer confidence getting up to new 3 years high and lead November EU manufacturing PMI index to be above 55 again at 55.3 from 55.5 in October. The single currency is trying to get back above 1.318 again but failing to get over it can open the way back to 1.306 and then the recent supporting level at 1.297 whereas the pair has met new buying interest recently and passing it can lead to 1.26 as the main bottom of its previous ascending rally which has ended at 1.4281 versus the greenback which was well supported today despite the gains of the equities market which started in the Asian session pushing the stocks prices up putting pressure on the greenback after it was little changed from the beginning of the week trading in a tight range across the broad amid expected thin trading in the days ahead before the charismas holidays but it could cover its loses across the broad pushing down the single currency which was supported by the Chinese pledge to support the European efforts for solving their financial problems but these news could not live longer with the market which pushed it down again versus the greenback which had better than expected data recently like December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey rising to 24.3 while it was waited to be just 14.1 from 22.5 after NY empire state manufacturing index coming up to 10.6 and it was forecasted to be 3 from -11.1 which could support the US stocks and Dow to keep most of its gains reaching new 2 years high yesterday at 11549 and God Willing, we are waiting today for US Existing Home Sales of November to be 4.75m from 4.43m in October and US Q3 GDP to be 2.8% from 1.7% in the second quarter yearly and by the end of the week for New Home Sales to be .3m from .283m in October.
Best wishes
FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 23-12-2010, 08:31 AM   #32
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
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افتراضي 23/12/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The US Dollar could keep most of its gains across the broad making new three months high versus the British pound which plunged to 1.5355 yesterday after the release of weaker than expected Q3 GDP which came at just .7% while the market was waiting for .8% with widening of the current account deficit to 9.7B Stg and it was awaited to be just 7.5% from 52.B Stg in the second quarter while the BOE recent meeting minutes suggested that there is majority of keeping the interest rate unchanged as there was only opposing voting from Andrew Sentence who preferred hiking the interest rate by 25 basis points as the leader of the inflation worried members while from the other side Adam Posen came again suggesting adding new 50B Stg to the current 200b Stg buying bonds plan but he was also the sole voter for this adding while the other preferred keeping everything as it is elevating their appreciation of the EU debt risks on the British economy and the increasing of the commodities and energy prices on the inflation outlook in UK. The British pound has come under pressure after these data reaching 1.5355 before rebounding in a slow pace above 1.54 again with the gains of the equities markets which weighed on the greenback with Dow making new 2 years high again at 11566 which helped the European equities markets to keep its recent gains as the market is optimistic of easing of the growth down side risks with the fed's easing measures supporting the demand for the commodities and oil which closed today above 90$ a barrel for the first time since October 2008 supported by decreasing of the crude inventories by 5.3m barrel while they were forecasted to be just 1.1m barrel of declining which helped the gold to be stabilized around 1390 versus the greenback which had mixed data as we were waiting for US Existing Home Sales of November to be 4.75m from 4.43m in October but they came at just 4.68m while October housing prices came up monthly by .7% to be the first increasing since last August and US Q3 GDP to be 2.8% from 1.7% in the second quarter yearly but it came at just 2.6% while the prices index of that quarter came down to 2.1% from 2.3% in the first and the second quarter while the real personal consumption expenditures of that quarter rose up by 2.4% from 2.2% in the second quarter and it was waited to ease to .8% and god willing we are waiting today for the core personal consumption expenditure price index to be up monthly by .1% from a flat reading in October and up yearly by .9% as the same as October and US durable goods orders of November to be down by .5% after tumbling in October by 3.3% but the figure excluding the transportation orders is expected to show rising by 1.7% after falling in October by 2.7% and we have also the US personal income of November which is expected be up by .4% from .5% in October and also US New Home Sales of November to be .3m from .283m in October and also we have today December UN Michigan consuming sentiment to be 74.5 from 71.6 in November as the Christmas Holidays.

Happy New Year
FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 27-12-2010, 08:28 AM   #33
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
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افتراضي 27/12/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The trading has started this week in a quite way despite the China's decision of hiking the interest rate 25 basis points to be the second in the recent 2 months after it had requested from its banks to increase their reserve requirements 0.5 percent to be the sixth time this year for curbing the inflation upside risks by capping investment spending cooling the economy with rising of the energy and commodities prices by this year end which is expected to continue with the Fad's keeping of its quantitive easing policies which caused depreciation of the greenback putting China under pressure to cool its economy further which can have a negative impact on their economic growth and exports at the current high prices and also their stocks markets which have lost above 500 points since the middle of last month under the pressure of this policy which can support the Yuan hurting the business spending and this has really helped US trade balance to get better tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ and this is expected to continue while US is still having an unstable housing market growth yet and weak labor market which can support the Fed keep its monetary policy stance unchanged unfazed of the inflation risks which are still looking tame as we have seen recently US CPI of November coming at .1% monthly while it was expected to be .2% and the core figure excluding the food and energy rising by just .1% as expected after 2 months of flat reading maintaining the Fed's worries about the deflation risks while Chinese inflation came at a 28-month high at 5.1 in November which can open the door for PBOC to take tighter monetary actions for staving off the prices currently which can hurt the global growth rates and effect negatively on the risks appetite supporting the greenback and the gold as a reaction of the US easing policy which has hurt the greenback again by extending the working of the tax cuts which have been taken during Bush's presidency in another way of easing can hurt the US budget and treasuries prices driving the US treasuries yields which china has a great deal of them in the same time.
While The European stocks markets are still underpinned by the gains of the US equities markets with high potential of the commodities and energy prices which reinforce the mining and the oil companies earning by the end of this year with the ECB keeping of its supporting of the bonds markets lowering the yields giving underpinning the investors' confidence of the investors with the market focusing on the debt crisis but these gains can be always tempered by be the threats of the debt contagion worries putting the European stocks back under pressure and the single currency which has a weaker positions with the market expectations of pumping new funds into countries actually suffering from weak financial position and accumulated deficit like Greece which could have an extension of its loans maturity and also Spain and Portugal which has been downgraded by Fitch one notch to A+ with a negative outlook which can keep it under pressure to be the nearest to take a share from the IMF and the EU bailing out package following Ireland which has been downgraded five notches to B with a negative outlook from Aa2 by Moody's which has announced that it can downgrade the Spanish long term credit rating of Aa1 too recently which contained the market sentiment recently weighing negatively on the Euro ignoring the better than expected economic data from Germany which driving the EU economic growth up as we have seen recently the germane IFO business climate recording new historical new high in December at 109.9 since the beginning of it in 1991 after it has made 109.3 in November and the germane retails sales figure of October rising up by 2.3% monthly while it was expected to be up by just 1.3% after falling in September by 1.8% which helped EU consumer confidence getting up to new 3 years high and lead November EU manufacturing PMI index to be above 55 again at 55.3 from 55.5 in October.
God Willing, it is important this week to wait for US December Broad Consumers Confidence to be 56.1 from 54.1 in November and later this week which is expected to have a thin trading, we wait for US December Chicago PMI to be 61.5 from 62.5 in November.

Best Wishes for a Happy New Year

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 28-12-2010, 12:29 PM   #34
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 28/12/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The Single currency could find buying in very quite sessions after breaking above 1.317 versus the greenback and it is trading above 1.32 currently helped by light volumes in thin trading sessions to correct some of its recent loses by the year end as technically the light volume helping the profit taken but the market sentiment is still looking unchanged after shrugging off the China's decision of hiking the interest rate 25 basis points as it looked pricing in the market but after the Asian stocks market were mixed in the beginning of the week after the Christmas decision, they came under pressure today but the European equities markets are still looking unfazed of these loses trading very quite with no materialized change of the risk appetite. The Chinese decision was the second in the recent 3 months after it had requested from its banks to increase their reserve requirements 0.5 percent to be the sixth time this year for curbing the inflation upside risks by capping investment spending cooling the economy with rising of the energy and commodities prices by this year end which is expected to continue with the Fad's keeping of its quantitive easing policies which caused depreciation of the greenback putting China under pressure to cool its economy further which can have a negative impact on their economic growth and exports at the current high prices and also their stocks markets which have lost above 500 points since the middle of last month under the pressure of this policy which can support the Yuan hurting the business spending and this has really helped US trade balance to get better tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ and this is expected to continue while US is still having an unstable housing market growth yet and weak labor market which can support the Fed keep its monetary policy stance unchanged unfazed of the inflation risks which are still looking tame as we have seen recently US CPI of November coming at .1% monthly while it was expected to be .2% and the core figure excluding the food and energy rising by just .1% as expected after 2 months of flat reading maintaining the Fed's worries about the deflation risks while Chinese inflation came at a 28-month high at 5.1 in November which can open the door for PBOC to take tighter monetary actions for staving off the prices currently which can hurt the global growth rates and effect negatively on the risks appetite supporting the greenback and the gold as a reaction of the US easing policy which has hurt the greenback again by extending the working of the tax cuts which have been taken during Bush's presidency in another way of easing can hurt the US budget and treasuries prices driving the US treasuries yields which china has a great deal of them in the same time.
While The European stocks markets are still underpinned generally by the gains of the US equities markets with high potential of the commodities and energy prices which reinforce the mining and the oil companies earning by the end of this year with the ECB keeping of its supporting of the bonds markets lowering the yields giving underpinning the investors' confidence of the investors with the market focusing on the debt crisis but these gains can be always tempered by be the threats of the debt contagion worries putting the European stocks back under pressure and the single currency which has a weaker positions with the market expectations of pumping new funds into countries actually suffering from weak financial position and accumulated deficit like Greece which could have an extension of its loans maturity and also Spain and Portugal which has been downgraded by Fitch one notch to A+ with a negative outlook which can keep it under pressure to be the nearest to take a share from the IMF and the EU bailing out package following Ireland which has been downgraded five notches to B with a negative outlook from Aa2 by Moody's which has announced that it can downgrade the Spanish long term credit rating of Aa1 too recently which contained the market sentiment weighing negatively on the Euro ignoring the better than expected economic data from Germany which driving the EU economic growth up as we have seen recently the germane IFO business climate recording new historical new high in December at 109.9 since the beginning of it in 1991 after it has made 109.3 in November and the germane retails sales figure of October rising up by 2.3% monthly while it was expected to be up by just 1.3% after falling in September by 1.8% which helped EU consumer confidence getting up to new 3 years high and lead November EU manufacturing PMI index to be above 55 again at 55.3 from 55.5 in October.
God Willing, it is important to wait today for US December Broad Conference Consumers Confidence to be 56.1 from 54.1 in November and later this week which is expected to continue its thin trading, we wait for US December Chicago PMI to be 61.5 from 62.5 in November.

Best Wishes for a Happy New Year

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 29-12-2010, 11:33 AM   #35
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 29/12/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The commodities currency could find strong demand by the year end on increased market expectations of greater demand for them amid the US adopted easing policy which is not expected to be end soon supported by the Chinese decision of lowering its exports of the rare metals. The Canadian dollar has reached parity with the greenback while the Aussi is trading above 1.013 currently. The demand for oil also is widely expected to rise from another side because of the bad cold weather in US, Europe and even in China which watched degrees below -30 this year. The oil is looking targeting 100$ a barrel in the beginning of next year and the market eyes are now at US inventories data after last week decreasing of the crude inventories by 5.3m barrels while they were forecasted to have just 1.1m barrels of declining which is still giving a potential high outlook of the prices. The copper is also at its all times high while the silver is trading above well above 30$ and the gold could get over 1400$ per once supported by the increased inflation outlook from the rising of these commodities and energy prices.
While the Single currency could not find enough buying to exist further above 1.32 versus the greenback which has been hit yesterday by weaker than expected US December Broad Conference Consumers Confidence which 52.5 while it was expected to be 56.1 from 54.1 in November. The pair has been supported earlier this week after breaking above 1.317 versus the greenback finding stop loss triggering in low volume sessions helping taking profit taken but the market sentiment is still looking unchanged toward the single currency.
The Asian stocks also could get back last Tuesday loses supported by increasing of November Japanese industrial productions rising monthly by 1% to be the first time in the recent six months shrugging off the China's decision of hiking the interest rate 25 basis points as it looked pricing in the market right now. The Chinese decision was the second in the recent 3 months after it had requested from its banks to increase their reserve requirements 0.5 percent to be the sixth time this year for curbing the inflation upside risks by capping investment spending cooling the economy with rising of the energy and commodities prices by this year end which is expected to continue with the Fad's keeping of its quantitive easing policies which caused depreciation of the greenback putting China under pressure to cool its economy further which can have a negative impact on their economic growth and exports at the current high prices and also their stocks markets which have lost above 500 points since the middle of last month under the pressure of this policy which can support the Yuan hurting the business spending and this has really helped US trade balance to get better tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ and this is expected to continue while US is still having an unstable housing market growth yet and weak labor market which can support the Fed keep its monetary policy stance unchanged unfazed of the inflation risks which are still looking tame as we have seen recently US CPI of November coming at .1% monthly while it was expected to be .2% and the core figure excluding the food and energy rising by just .1% as expected after 2 months of flat reading maintaining the Fed's worries about the deflation risks while Chinese inflation came at a 28-month high at 5.1 in November which can open the door for PBOC to take tighter monetary actions for staving off the prices currently which can hurt the global growth rates and effect negatively on the risks appetite supporting the greenback and the gold as a reaction of the US easing policy which has hurt the greenback again by extending the working of the tax cuts which have been taken during Bush's presidency in another way of easing can hurt the US budget and treasuries prices driving the US treasuries yields which china has a great deal of them in the same time.
While the European equities markets are still looking unfazed of this week few events trading very quite with no materialized change of the risk appetite underpinned generally by the gains of the US equities markets with high potential of the commodities and energy prices which can reinforce the mining and the oil companies earning by the end of this year with the ECB keeping of its supporting of the bonds markets lowering the yields giving underpinning the investors' confidence of the investors with the market focusing on the debt crisis but these gains can be always tempered by be the threats of the debt contagion worries putting the European stocks back under pressure and the single currency which has a weaker positions with the market expectations of pumping new funds into countries actually suffering from weak financial position and accumulated deficit like Greece which could have an extension of its loans maturity and also Spain and Portugal which has been downgraded by Fitch one notch to A+ with a negative outlook which can keep it under pressure to be the nearest to take a share from the IMF and the EU bailing out package following Ireland which has been downgraded five notches to B with a negative outlook from Aa2 by Moody's which has announced that it can downgrade the Spanish long term credit rating of Aa1 too recently which contained the market sentiment weighing negatively on the Euro ignoring the better than expected economic data from Germany which driving the EU economic growth up as we have seen recently the germane IFO business climate recording new historical new high in December at 109.9 since the beginning of it in 1991 after it has made 109.3 in November and the germane retails sales figure of October rising up by 2.3% monthly while it was expected to be up by just 1.3% after falling in September by 1.8% which helped EU consumer confidence getting up to new 3 years high and lead November EU manufacturing PMI index to be above 55 again at 55.3 from 55.5 in October.
God Willing, it is important to wait for US December Chicago PMI to be 61.5 from 62.5 in November tomorrow.

Best Wishes for a Happy New Year

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 30-12-2010, 11:37 AM   #36
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 30/12/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The commodities currencies are still underpinned by the market expectations of demand rising next year amid the US adopted easing policies which are not expected to be end soon supported by the Chinese decision of lowering its exports of the rare metals. The Canadian dollar has reached parity with the greenback while the Aussi is trading above 1.015 currently. The demand for oil also is widely expected to rise from another side because of the bad cold weather in US, Europe and even in China which watched degrees below -30 this year. The oil is looking targeting 100$ a barrel in the beginning of next year and the market eyes are now at US inventories data which will be released today after last week decreasing of the crude inventories by 5.3m barrels while they were forecasted to have just 1.1m barrels of declining which is still giving a potential high outlook of the prices. The copper is also at its all times high while the silver is trading above well above 30$ and the gold could get over 1400$ per once supported by the increased inflation outlook from the rising of these commodities and energy prices.
The Single currency could creep again above 1.32 versus the greenback which is still negatively impacted by the dovish release of US December Broad Conference Consumers Confidence which came at 52.5 while it was expected to be 56.1 from 54.1 in November but the market sentiment is still looking unchanged toward the single currency which suffering from the debt crisis while the European equities markets are still looking unfazed of this week few events trading very quite with no materialized change of the risk appetite underpinned generally by the gains of the US equities markets with high potential of the commodities and energy prices which can reinforce the mining and the oil companies earning by the end of this year with the ECB keeping of its supporting of the bonds markets lowering the yields giving underpinning the investors' confidence of the investors with the market focusing on the debt crisis but these gains can be always tempered by be the threats of the debt contagion worries putting the European stocks back under pressure and the single currency which has a weaker positions with the market expectations of pumping new funds into countries actually suffering from weak financial position and accumulated deficit like Greece which could have an extension of its loans maturity and also Spain and Portugal which has been downgraded by Fitch one notch to A+ with a negative outlook which can keep it under pressure to be the nearest to take a share from the IMF and the EU bailing out package following Ireland which has been downgraded five notches to B with a negative outlook from Aa2 by Moody's which has announced that it can downgrade the Spanish long term credit rating of Aa1 too recently which contained the market sentiment weighing negatively on the Euro ignoring the better than expected economic data from Germany which driving the EU economic growth up as we have seen recently the germane IFO business climate recording new historical new high in December at 109.9 since the beginning of it in 1991 after it has made 109.3 in November and the germane retails sales figure of October rising up by 2.3% monthly while it was expected to be up by just 1.3% after falling in September by 1.8% which helped EU consumer confidence getting up to new 3 years high and lead November EU manufacturing PMI index to be above 55 again at 55.3 from 55.5 in October.
The Asian stocks market has had a calm session too after strong gains yesterday compensating last Tuesday loses supported by increasing of November Japanese industrial productions rising monthly by 1% to be the first time in the recent six months shrugging off the China's decision of hiking the interest rate 25 basis points during the charismas as it has become concluded currently pricing in the markets. The Chinese decision was the second in the recent 3 months after it had requested from its banks to increase their reserve requirements 0.5 percent to be the sixth time this year for curbing the inflation upside risks by capping investment spending cooling the economy with rising of the energy and commodities prices by this year end which is expected to continue with the Fad's keeping of its quantitive easing policies which caused depreciation of the greenback putting China under pressure to cool its economy further which can have a negative impact on their economic growth and exports at the current high prices and also their stocks markets which have lost above 500 points since the middle of last month under the pressure of this policy which can support the Yuan hurting the business spending and this has really helped US trade balance to get better tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ and this is expected to continue while US is still having an unstable housing market growth yet and weak labor market which can support the Fed keep its monetary policy stance unchanged unfazed of the inflation risks which are still looking tame as we have seen recently US CPI of November coming at .1% monthly while it was expected to be .2% and the core figure excluding the food and energy rising by just .1% as expected after 2 months of flat reading maintaining the Fed's worries about the deflation risks while Chinese inflation came at a 28-month high at 5.1 in November which can open the door for PBOC to take tighter monetary actions for staving off the prices currently which can hurt the global growth rates and effect negatively on the risks appetite supporting the greenback and the gold as a reaction of the US easing policy which has hurt the greenback again by extending the working of the tax cuts which have been taken during Bush's presidency with increased demand for cutting the corporate taxes too following Japan as it has become the highest industrial country holding of these taxes in another easing expected step can hurt the US budget driving down the treasuries while china has a great deal of them in the same time. God Willing, it is important today to wait for US December Chicago PMI to be 61.5 from 62.5 in November.

Best Wishes for a Happy New Year

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 30-12-2010, 12:16 PM   #37
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
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افتراضي يمكنك السؤال عن 2011

Hi
By God's Will, You can feel free to send us asking about our market analyses and our next year views.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategies
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 03-01-2011, 08:09 AM   #38
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
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افتراضي 3/1/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

The commodities currencies are still underpinned by the market expectations of demand rising in the New Year with the US adopted easing policies which are not expected to be end soon supported by the Chinese decision of lowering its exports of the rare metals. The Canadian dollar has reached parity with the greenback while the Aussi is trading above 1.02 currently. The demand for oil also is widely expected to rise from another side because of the bad cold weather in US, Europe and even in China which watched degrees below -30 this year. The oil has ended the last year also well supported by shortage of the US inventories of the crude by another 2.3m barrels after 5.3m barrels a week earlier while they were forecasted to be just 1.5m barrels of declining which is still giving a potential high outlook of the prices in the new year which is looking having better economic outlook to the investors after last Thursday up beating data which have shown rising of US December Chicago PMI to 68.6 while it was waited to be 61.5 from 62.5 in November which show that we can have stronger than expected US ISM manufacturing index today which was waited to be 57.3 from 56.6 in November and also we have seen last week weekly jobless claim coming at 388k while the market was expecting 412k which show that there can be improving of US labor report data which are expected to come by the end of this week showing that there is a rising of the US non-farm payroll of December by 135k after adding just 39k in November. The market have seen in these data new chance for pushing the energy and commodities further making the copper close to its all times high while the silver is trading well above 30$ and the gold to close last year trading over 1400$ per once supported by the increased inflation outlook from the rising of these commodities and energy prices.
The Single currency could add to its gains by these data which can help the growth outlook of EU too creeping above 1.33 versus the greenback but the market sentiment seems unchanged toward the single currency which suffering from the debt crisis while the European equities markets are expected to open up after the Chinese strong gains with materialized improving of the risk appetite currently underpinned generally by high potential of the commodities and energy prices which can reinforce the mining and the oil companies earning with the ECB keeping of its supporting of the bonds markets lowering the yields giving underpinning the investors' confidence of the investors with the market focusing on the debt crisis but these gains can be always tempered by be the threats of the debt contagion worries putting the European stocks back under pressure and the single currency which has a weaker positions with the market expectations of pumping new funds into countries actually suffering from weak financial position and accumulated deficit like Greece which could have an extension of its loans maturity and also Spain and Portugal which has been downgraded by Fitch one notch to A+ with a negative outlook which can keep it under pressure to be the nearest to take a share from the IMF and the EU bailing out package following Ireland which has been downgraded five notches to B with a negative outlook from Aa2 by Moody's which has announced that it can downgrade the Spanish long term credit rating of Aa1 too recently which contained the market sentiment weighing negatively on the Euro ignoring the better than expected economic data from Germany which driving the EU economic growth up as we have seen recently the germane IFO business climate recording new historical new high in December at 109.9 since the beginning of it in 1991 after it has made 109.3 in November and the germane retails sales figure of October rising up by 2.3% monthly while it was expected to be up by just 1.3% after falling in September by 1.8% which helped EU consumer confidence getting up to new 3 years high and it can lead December EU manufacturing PMI index which we are waiting today by god's will to be 56.9 from 55.3 in November after 55.5 in October. The single currency is facing now again the resisting area from 1.3385 to 1.3425 which can be followed by 1.35 psychological level which failed recently to get over it after bouncing from 1.297 which could be protected by finding support last week at 1.305 heading up.
The Chinese stocks market has had a very strong session driving shanghai index up by more than 300 points until now cheered by the US better growth outlook which is containing the market sentiment currently after there recent data while the Japanese market is still off because of the holidays. The Asian equities markets were negatively impacted last week by the Chinese decision of raising interest rate .25% but the markets have started to get over this decision supported by increasing of November Japanese industrial productions which rose up monthly by 1% to be the first time in the recent six months shrugging off China's monetary tightening pace which has become concluded pricing in the markets. The Chinese decision was the second in the recent 3 months after it had requested from its banks to increase their reserve requirements 0.5 percent to be the sixth time this year for curbing the inflation upside risks by capping investment spending cooling the economy with rising of the energy and commodities prices by this year end which is expected to continue with the Fad's keeping of its quantitive easing policies which caused depreciation of the greenback putting China under pressure to cool its economy further which can have a negative impact on their economic growth and exports at the current high prices and also their stocks markets which have lost above 500 points since the middle of last month under the pressure of this policy which can support the Yuan hurting the business spending and this has really helped US trade balance to get better tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ and this is expected to continue while US is still having an unstable housing market growth yet and weak labor market which can support the Fed keep its monetary policy stance unchanged unfazed of the inflation risks which are still looking tame as we have seen recently US CPI of November coming at .1% monthly while it was expected to be .2% and the core figure excluding the food and energy rising by just .1% as expected after 2 months of flat reading maintaining the Fed's worries about the deflation risks while Chinese inflation came at a 28-month high at 5.1% in November which can open the door for PBOC to take tighter monetary actions for staving off the prices currently which can hurt the global growth rates and effect negatively on the risks appetite supporting the greenback and the gold as a reaction of the US easing policy which has hurt the greenback again by extending the working of the tax cuts which have been taken during Bush's presidency with increased demand for cutting the corporate taxes too following Japan as it has become the highest industrial country holding of these taxes in another easing expected step can hurt the US budget driving down the treasuries while china has a great deal of them in the same time.

Best Wishes for a Happy New Year

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 05-01-2011, 05:04 AM   #39
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
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افتراضي 5/1/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

The greenback could have further trust of the investors after better than expected Nov US factory orders data have shown increasing by .7% while the market was waiting for decreasing by .4% after falling in October by .7%. This good data came after better than expected series of data have started last week by US December Chicago PMI which came at 68.6 while it was waited to be 61.5 from 62.5 in November which show that we can have stronger than expected and last week weekly jobless claim coming at 388k while the market was expecting 412k which show that there can be improving of US labor report data which are expected to come by the end of this week showing that there is a rising of the US non-farm payroll of December by 135k after adding just 39k in November. We have seen also this week US ISM manufacturing index coming at 57 from 56.6 in November driving up the market confidence in the US growth outlook and the greenback which can have better creditability this year and rising demand for loans driving the bonds yields up further with is brought back trust in the US economy in the beginning of this year which forced the gold to get down below 1400$ again to 1374$ while the next supporting level is at 1360$ then 1329$ and 1315$ amid rising confidence in the business spending. The Aussi has eased back from 1.0285 to nearly parity with the greenback again within the gold easing and the greenback stronger buying sentiment
The commodities have eased back versus the strong dollar too which has been supported from another side by the announcement of the fed's recent meeting minutes which have shown easing of the fed's fear about deflation and appreciation of the yield rising with rising confidence in the US growth outlook which can increase the borrowing and the prices too easing growth downward pressure.
The Single currency could not also keep any gains above 1.34 once again easing below 1.33 despite December EU PMI manufacturing index which rose above US to 57.1 and the recent continuous improving of the market risk appetite which came by the greenback side this time as the market is still worried about the debt contagion inside the Euro zone gloomy by the Estonia recent adoption at this time focusing on the downgrading probabilities of the credit rating of the Euro zone ailing countries of debt which have fallen recently on these countries with negative outlook of their debts as we have seen recently Portugal which has been downgraded by Fitch one notch to A+ with a negative outlook following Ireland which has been downgraded five notches to B with a negative outlook from Aa2 by Moody's which has announced that it can downgrade the Spanish long term credit rating of Aa1 too.
While the European equities markets are trying to get some gains from this better outlook of US economy, the Asian stocks markets and specially Shanghai are still doing well since the beginning of this week after absorbing the Chinese hiking interest rate in the charismas by .25% cheered by the better than expected data which brought back momentum and volume to the equities again after calming down period has been possessed by Chinese worrying about the inflation outlook taking a tightening monetary stance by raising interest rate .25% twice in less than 3 months requesting from its banks to increase their reserve requirements by 0.5 percent to be the sixth time this year for curbing this inflation pressure upside risks which at a 28-month high at 5.1% in November while it is still benign in US as we have seen recently US CPI of November coming at .1% monthly while it was expected to be .2% and the core figure excluding the food and energy rising by just .1% as expected after 2 months of flat reading. This adopted Chinese policy has actually supported the Yuan hurting the Chinese exports which has really helped US trade balance to get better tightening the trade balance deficit of October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ and this is expected to continue as US is still having an unstable housing market growth yet and weak labor market which can support the Fed keep its monetary policy stance unchanged unworried about the inflation outlook.
With this greenback strength, the British pound was the big gainer with rising of December manufacturing PMI to 58.3 while the market was waiting for the same reading of November at 57.5 which brought back the confidence in the UK economy too reducing the current market discounting of adding more funds to its buying bonds plan getting off some of the pressure on the British pound.
God willing, it is important to wait today for US ISM non-manufacturing index which is expected to be 55.6 in December from 55 in November and December US ADP employment to show adding of 100k jobs after adding 93k in November and by the end of this week we wait for US labor report of December which is expected to show 135k rising of the US non-farm payrolls after 39k in November.
Kind Regards

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 10-01-2011, 02:40 AM   #40
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 10/1/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

Despite the lower than expected non-farm payroll release which has just 103k while the market was waiting for 135k to be added in December, the greenback was well-supported by the rising of its bonds yields which have started to trigger the treasury and the Fed worries recently as the economy seems in better shape now and there is a limited probability of adding new funds from the Fed with the current improving of the economic data while the budget deficit is still going larger and the call of raising the taxes are increasing even from the former Fed's Chairman Mr. Alan Greenspan.
The confidence in the greenback has been in ascending recently by better than expected data reflect bullish economic growth outlook in US and better demand for the US dollar borrowing underpinning the US bonds yields helping the equities markets and the business spending driving the gold prices down as we have seen recently December ADP Employment adding triple of the market expectations of just 100k at 297k added jobs from 93k in November and Nov US factory orders data have shown increasing by .7% while the market was waiting for decreasing by .4% after falling in October by .7% and also both of US December manufacturing index and non-manufacturing index getting better to 57 and 57.1 consecutively after US December Chicago PMI had come at 68.6 while it was waited to be 61.5 from 62.5 in November which are the best since the ending of the credit crisis.
The market sees now that the US economy is much more credible driving the greenback up across the broad even versus the commodities and the energy which fuel this better growth outlook asking for the greenback weighing negatively on the Aussi which came back to parity with the US dollar driving the gold down with better business sentiment getting out the money from the safe haven stance pushing it to test its next supporting level at 1360$ which can be followed by 1329$ and 1315$ with investors rising confidence in the greenback which has been boosted from another side this week by the announcement of the Fed's recent meeting minutes which have shown easing of the Fed's fear about deflation and appreciation of the yield rising with rising confidence in the US recovery which can increase the borrowing and the prices too easing back the growth downward pressure which helped the greenback to get off its low at .93 versus the Swiss Franc which always takes use of the market tendency for taking a safe haven stance with the worries about growth but with the current better growth potential in US the greenback could get enough strength to get back above .96 putting more pressure on the EURUSD which failed several times to get supported place above 1.34 passing to 1.35 resistance and the upper band of the pair side way in the recent few weeks to fall breaking 1.297 whereas the pair has formed a lower band of this side way formerly by the ECB announcement of underpinning the liquidities in the bonds market with successful Spain and Portuguese auctions but it is now looking heading back down after this breaking of 1.297 which can open the door for the next major supporting level at 1.2586 with the market focusing on the debt contagion inside the Euro zone despite the recent good performance of the European stock following the growth recovery optimism in US and better economic data like December EU PMI manufacturing index which rose above US to 57.1 and the recent continuous improving of the market risk appetite which came by the greenback side this time as the market is still worried about the debt contagion inside the Euro zone gloomy by the Estonia recent adoption at this time focusing on the downgrading probabilities of the credit rating of the Euro zone ailing countries of debt which have fallen recently on these countries with negative outlook of their debts as we have seen recently Portugal which has been downgraded by Fitch one notch to A+ with a negative outlook following Ireland which has been downgraded five notches to B with a negative outlook from Aa2 by Moody's which has announced that it can downgrade the Spanish long term credit rating of Aa1 too.
While the lower than expected figure of non-farm payroll of December was hitting the greenback, it could help the cable to have a floor at 1.54 rising back above 1.55 after falling under the pressure of rising of Q4 2010 mortgage defaults value for the first time since Q2 2009 and sudden falling of December services PMI below 50 at 49.7 in the contracting territory to temper the positive sentiment towards the UK economy and the British pound which has been triggered by December manufacturing PMI rising to 58.3 while the market was waiting for the same reading of November at 57.5 which brought back some confidence in the UK economy reducing some of the market discounting of adding more funds to its buying bonds plan getting off some of the pressure on the British.
God Willing, it is important to wait this week for November US trade balance to be -40.6b $ after we had seen significant tightening of the trade deficit in October reaching 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ on the current US easing policy which weakened the USD lowering the costs of exporting and the imports specially from china which is worrying about the inflation outlook taking a tightening monetary stance by raising interest rate .25% twice in less than 3 months requesting from its banks to increase their reserve requirements 6 times last year for curbing this inflation upside risks which was at a 28-month high at 5.1% in November while it is still looking benign in US as we have seen November US CPI coming at .1% monthly while it was foreseen to be .2% and the core figure excluding the food and energy rising by just .1% as expected after 2 months of flat reading and we wait by the end of this week for December CPI figures which are expected to show rising of the broad rate by .4% while the core excluding the food and energy is expected to be up by .1% again and we also wait next Friday for January preliminary reading of University of Michigan monthly consumer sentiment index to be 75.5 after getting up to 74.2 in mid December from 71.6 at the end of November while it was forecasted to be 73.
Kind Regards

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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