توقعات يومية لليورو مقابل الدولار 2004

[محمد السويد]

هلا اخوي فيصل ، هذي التصريحات كانت تتكلم عن سياسات الدولة النقدية علشان كذا أثرت .

الأخ عدنان ، هذه النصائح أقوم بإعدادها بنفسي وذلك بتحليل السوق فنيا .


أخوكم

محمد السويّد

[محمد السويد]

ارجوا التنبه إلى أن هناك احتمال كبير بأن يعود اليورو مرة أخرة لتجربة اختراق 1.29 ، بدايه محاولة الطلوع هي باختراق مستوى 1.2512 ، اذا حصل هذا فالتوصية كالتالي :



شراء بعد اختراق 1.2512


ضع امر وقف الخسارة على 1.2460


الهدف 1.2900


اخوكم الفرس

[محمد السويد]

توصية اليوم :


اشتر على 1.2500



ضع امر وقف الخسارة على 1.2460



الهدف 1.29

[محمد السويد]

هناك تصريحات من مسؤولين اوروبيين ترجح حدوث انعكاس في تجاه اليورو Reversal بحيث يعود مرة أخرى للصعود هذا الأسبوع ، وهذه هي الأخبار :


12:18 EUR/USD: EU Official"s Continue Softer Tone On Euro Rise] London, January
19: EU official rhetoric continued through the European morning, and the zone"s
top brass appear to be a lot happier now EUR/USD has undergone a correction from
January 12"s lifetime highs of 1.2896. EUR/USD now trades around 1.2360, just
off the 1.2335 five-week lows recorded earlier in the session.
Austria"s Finance Minister Grasser "does not see why anyone should be worried
about the strength of the euro", according to Reuters reports, while suggesting
that he sees no need/reason for the Eurogroup meeting to engage in any "verbal
intervention". Also, after the release of German Q4 GDP (rising 0.25% Q/Q),
Buba"s Stark said that he does not believe that the recent rise in the euro will
obstruct the German economic recovery. -- Tony.Nyman@thomson.com



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[محمد السويد]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته ،،،،،

السوق أقفل فوق مستوى 1.2560 مما ينبئ باستمرار المنحى التصاعدي انشالله لذا فالتوصية اليوم وغدا هي الشراء على المستوى الحالي ووضع أمر وقف الخسارة على 1.2530 والهدف انشالله 1.29


مع تمنياتي لكم بالتوفيق والنجاح .


أخوكم

محمد السويّد

[محمد السويد]

اشتر على 1.2635 أو على المستويات الحالية


ضع امر وقف الخسارة على 1.2595


الهدف الأول 1.2795


الهدف الثاني 1.2900


بالتوفيق انشالله

[محمد السويد]

[12:28 January 22] London: USD/JPY fell to a low of 106.23 after stops were
triggered on a break of 106.50. A EUR/USD rally to 1.2750 was partly attributed
to the dollar move lower.
The European Central Bank said in its monthly report that interest rates are
appropriate. They also stressed the need for stability with regards to exchange
rates. Traders are saying that the ECB appear to be unwilling to take any
decisive action to halt the EUR rise. The currency also appears to becoming less
sensitive to verbal intervention.
EUR/JPY rallied to a high of 135.60 and looks poised for further gains. Some
traders are looking for a test of 136.00 where offers are reported.
Japanese MOF official, Watanabe, said Europe and Japan share the same level of
concern on Weak dollar. He added that Japan"s Finance Minister, Sadakazu
Tanigaki, will not be calling on the U.S. to fix deficits.
In the near term, Japanese bids at 106.00 - 106.20 are likely to provide
support. Hourly resistance is seen at 106.85. --Charles.Sultan@thomson.com

[محمد السويد]

ECB Report Dovish on Rising Euro and Interest Rates by Jes Black

At 8:30:00 AM US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 345K, prev 343K) At 10:00:00 AM US Dec Leading Indicators Index (exp 0.20%, prev 0.30%)

The dollar added to this week's steep losses after the highly anticipated January report from the European Central Bank showed little stress over the rising euro. Upon the release the euro broke to new highs adding one cent on the day to 1.2752. Sterling has gained over 6 cents in three days and is nearing in on last week's 11-year peak of 1.8565. Meanwhile the dollar succumbed to renewed selling pressure against the yen, falling to a session low of 106.23 after it failed to maintain above the key 107 level this week. The uncoordinated stance amongst global central bankers and finance ministers has left the impression that more dollar selling will be tolerated. In effect this opens the way for a run at 1.30 in EUR/USD, while US bonds should maintain a firm bid from Asian central banks as they intervene in the currency markets. US stocks should also continue to benefit as artificially low rates and a falling dollar boost profits.

US data today include weekly jobless claims, which are seen rising to 345k, up marginally from last week's 3-year low of 343k

ECB Report Fails to Find Concern in Dollar Decline

The ECB missed a key opportunity today to steer the markets away from aggressive dollar selling. While mentioning the detriments of currency volatility the market was looking for solid signs that the ECB was growing discontent with the appreciation of the euro. Instead the report boosted Eurozone bonds and the euro as the ECB is seen dovish on both its rising currency and the need to raise rates. The market has now removed expectations of a rate hike, but is mixed over the possibility of a rate cut after ECB members this week seemed to dismiss the effectiveness of such a strategy. In sum, today's report was a coup for dollar bears after last week's worries

[محمد السويد]

السلام عليك ورحمة الله وبركاته ،،،،،

إخوي الكرام ، ربما رأيتم ما حدث من سقوط في اليورو يوم الجمعة وهذا عائد بشكل واضح إلى محصلي ارباح على عقود شراء ، والسبب ان اصحابها لم يريدوا المخاطرة بالربح خلال عطلة نهاية الأسبوع وذلك بسبب اجتماع دافوس وخلافه ، واليورو حاليا قد شكل تريند جديد من المفترض ان يتماسك مع ان المؤشرات غير مشجعه ، ولكن توصية اليوم هي :


اشتر على المستويات الحالية (1.2582)


الهدف 1.3

أمر وقف الخسار يستعاض عنه بعملية جديدة مدبله أدناه

ضع امر بيع على سعر 1.2540


ضع امر وقف الخسارة على 1.2610


الهدف 1.2480



مع تمنياتي لكم بالتوفيق والنجاح


أخوكم


محمد السويّد

[محمد السويد]

[00:22 EUR/USD Just Above NY Low Of 1.2565, Rate Cut Concerns, G7] Tokyo, Jan
26. Expectations of a renewed push on the part of EZ-officials for an agreement
on currencies at the upcoming G7 meeting on February 6-7 as well as a possible
interest rate cut by the ECB to offset the economic effects of recent EUR moves
up were major factors behind the sell-off from a high of 1.2776 in London to
1.2565 in New York. Cross sales figured largely, with EUR/JPY selling off very
sharply as well. Dealers were just becoming comfortable with the view that the
ECB neither had the will nor the wherewithal to act except verbally on EUR
strength. This no longer seems to be the case with dealers eyeing possible
interest rate cuts as well as direct FX intervention, even if done solo, to stem
EUR/USD rises above 1.30. How quick the pendulum swings.
With EUR/USD hovering just above Friday lows, the bias is likely to remain down
in the immediate term though there are those who suggest long liquidation is
perhaps over. The sell-off Friday does suggest significant position adjustments
did take place but IMM CTA data shows long EUR positions having increased in the
week ended January 20 to 28,243 from 26,937 contracts, still a hefty sum. Some
stops are likely below 1.2550-60. 1.2549 was the low seen in Asia on January 21.
Next support comes in at 1.2505, 61.8% Fibo retracement of 1.2335-1.2775. Upside
resistance today is eyed at 1.2600-10. EUR/USD currently trades 1.2567/72.
--Haruya.Ida@thomson.com /SH



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