Trading Tips from 21 to 30

[walid]

The single currency is still unable to have a stable place above 1.42 versus the greenback as it is still capped by the market worries about the debt crisis in Europe with the current continued pressure which have resulted the recent Moody's downgrading of the Greek sovereign debt 3 notches to B1 and Spain's long term debt to Aa2 which have been followed by new downgrading of the Portuguese long term debt 2 notches to A3 and so, it has become concluded to the markets to know another downgrading to it from S&P to BBB from A- and Fitch exposing it to be revised down in the case of not asking a share of the offered bailing out plan which has been extended recently from 250B Euros to 440B Euros and it looks that it is depending now on the new government in Portugal to take this decision which can put pressure on it to take further austerity measures for capping its budget deficit to be the second country to take a share of this offering package after Ireland which added worries to the market by its yearly GDP which shrank in 2011 by .7% while the market was waiting for rising by 1.2% after shrinking by .3% yearly in the third quarter of last year but it looks that the governmental spending cuts and the worries about the countries budget deficit have taken it toll on Irish GDP which was doing double digits rates of growth yearly in the 1990s.
So, despite the ECB hints to hike the interest rate for containing the prices which were underpinning the single currency in the beginning, this tightening action can also put more weights on the debt ailing countries in the Euro area as it should increase the cost of repaying their debts driving up the yields of their new issuance too which can weakening their creditability further weighing negatively on the Euro and its backed securities which were getting support from the ECB adopted easing stance for stimulating the Economy.
The Single currency could rebound in the beginning of this week from 1.4017 after it had reached it under technical pressure resulted from failing several times to be well-supported above 1.42 to test 1.4281 which has been reached in the beginning of last November after the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ to its quantitive easing policy to be the recorded high of this pair since the credit crisis ending until now and the pair is still unable to make it which can expose it to lose further momentum in its way up getting back to 1.4017 which can be followed by 1.3855 and the breaking of it can lead to 1.3751 again while the main supporting level of the pair is existing at the formed bottom of the recent ascending to 1.4247 at 1.3428 while the next resistance should be now at 1.4247 then 1.4281 and the breaking of it can trigger stop loses orders and further buying momentum to be gained.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

EURUSD is moving in a side way well-supported above 1.42 waiting for the ECB to hike the interest rate next Thursday

The single currency has been well-supported above 1.42 since the beginning of the week as the market is waiting for the ECB's decision to raise the interest rate by .25% to 1.25% to be the first tightening action after the credit crisis for containing the inflation upside risks after it had reached 2.6% y/y in a preliminary reading of March from 2.4% y/y in February and these are well above the ECB target which is 2% yearly.
The Single currency could rebound from 1.4059 after the release of March labor report which has shown declining of the unemployment rate to 8.8% from 8.9% in February and rising of March US non-farm Payrolls to 216k while the market was waiting for just 190k after 192k in the preliminary release of Feb which has been revised up too to 194k supporting the greenback in the beginning but it has eased back under the pressure of the market risk apatite which has increased further by the release of US ISM manufacturing index which has come at 61.2 which the market waiting for just 60.5 from 61.4 showing no easing of the demand in the sector a because of these data helping the single to close above 1.42 but it could not break above 1.4281 reaching just 1.4267 in the beginning of this week before easing back to be traded just above 1.42 until now as it is still capped by the market worries about the debt outlook in Europe after last month Moody's downgrading of the Greek sovereign debt 3 notches to B1 and Spain's long term debt to Aa2 which have been followed by another downgrading of the Portuguese long term debt 2 notches to A3 and it has been concluded after that to have another downgrading to it from S&P to BBB from A- and also Fitch exposing it to be revised down in the case of not asking a share of the offered bailing out plan which has been extended recently from 250B Euros to 440B Euros and it looks that it is depending now on the new government in Portugal to take this decision which can put pressure on it to take further austerity measures for capping its budget deficit to be the second country to take a share of this offering package after Ireland which added worries to the market by its yearly GDP which shrank in 2011 by .7% while the market was waiting for rising by 1.2% after shrinking by .3% yearly in the third quarter of last year but it looks that the governmental spending cuts and the worries about the countries budget deficit have taken it toll on Irish GDP which was doing double digits rates of growth yearly in the 1990s.
So, The single currency movement was contained recently by the market waiting for the ECB to hike the interest rate for containing the prices which can underpin the single currency and in the same time the negative effect of this tightening action which can also put more weights on the debt ailing countries in the Euro area as it should increase the cost of repaying their debts driving up the yields of their new issuance too which can weakening their creditability further weighing negatively on the Euro and its backed securities which were getting support from the ECB adopted easing stance which fueled the prices and helped to stimulate the Economy in the same time.
By God's will, the next resistance of this pair is still expecting to be at 1.4281 which has been reached in the beginning of last November after the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ to its quantitive easing policy to be the recorded high of this pair since the credit crisis ending until now and the pair repeated inability to come over it can expose the Euro to lose technical momentum again of its way up getting back to 1.4017 which can be followed by 1.3855 and the breaking of it can lead to 1.3751 again while the main supporting level of the pair is existing at the formed bottom of the recent ascending to 1.4247 at 1.3428 while the failing of 1.4281 can trigger stop loses orders and further buying momentum to be gained.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The gold has started its correction which has ended at 1410$ getting back above its previous high at 1447 to reach 1456 ahead of testing 1500$ psychological level as the tension is still on in Libya with no clear victory to each of the rebels or El Qaddafi's troops supporting the oil prices and the investors looking for safe haven stance.
In this same time, there is no clear direction for hiking the interest rate ending the Fed's stimulating easing stance for containing inflation in US expecting the rising of oil and commodities prices to pass with no implication on the underling inflation over the medium term to effect negatively on the demand as what has been announced earlier this week from the Fed's Chairman Mr. Bernaneke who is expecting these rises of oil and commodities to be transitory with no effect on the long term inflation and this conclusion has been obvious in the recent meeting minutes of the Fed too with no signal for hiking the interest rate until now which refer to available room for rising prices to come with no transaction from the Fed to tackle this rising which supports the gold as a hedge against inflation and even Europe as the ECB is expected to hike the interest rate by .25% this week for containing the prices, it is not expected to be by the way that can contain the inflation firmly as most of the European economies are in need of the low interest rate for stimulating their struggling economic growth while there are other ailing countries by their budget deficit which can suffer further from the rising of their bonds issuance high yields because of this tightening action Like Greece, Ireland and Portugal while BOE is still unable until now to take a tightening action against the rapid rising of prices suffering from the stagflation pressure after UK GDP has shrank by .5% q/q in the last quarter of 2010 and even if the MPC decided finally to take an action to hike the interest rate, it is not expected to by the required way to contain the inflation which reached to 4.4% yearly in February and it can reach to 5% as the recent MPC minutes have shown.
The gold next support is expected to be at 1410$, 1393$ then 1380$ which has been reached after the Japanese earthquake on asking for liquidity and specially for the Japanese yen which is well-used as a funding currency as its very low interest rate for lowering the investments costs and this action could brought back the hope for using it again as a funding currency as the direction is now for devaluating it after reaching these recent worrying rates which do not tackle the Japanese exports only but also the investments spending sentiment in the assets and stocks markets broadly. So it was a must to do for encouraging the markets confidence again while the criticism from the European countries are expected to be at the minimal level while the Japanese exports are depressed from different sides with the yen recording its all times high versus the greenback and the Japanese products are exposed to the radiations tests all over the world.
While the silver after it has ended its correction at 36.45 it has crept up to 39.3 heading for 40 psychological level well-supported by being above the trend line support extended from 26.39 to 33.66 and also the supporting level at 37.06 and 38.04.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The cable has come under pressure again after the release of UK manufacturing productions of March which have come unchanged from February while the market was waiting for increasing by .5% from .9% in February and also the industrial productions of March have come weaker than expected easing back by 1.2% while the market was waiting for increasing by .4% from .3% in February and these weak data come after the recent declining of UK PMI manufacturing index which has fallen in March to 57.1 from 61.5 in February while the market was waiting for 60.9 which shows that there can be harder times in the case of further rising of the commodities and energy prices.
The cable has been boosted this week by the rising of UK PMI service index of March which rose to 57.1 from 52.6 in February while the market was waiting for just 52.9 and it was 53.5 in January from 49.7 in December which shows that there is improvement in the performance of this sector and from another side the greenback was under pressure across the broad as the market is pricing now on the Fed's believing that the underling inflation over the medium term is expected to be stable despite the rising of the oil and commodities prices which can be transity suggesting that there can be further easing period of keeping its easing policy undermining the greenback which is looking suffering this week.
The market is waiting now for the MPC meeting decision after the recent MPC meeting minutes had shown that the inflation can reach to 5% over the medium term while there is no clear view about the economic growth in the first quarter of this year yet as it is still too early to be predicted while the voting of the members was the same as the recent meeting as Mr. Dale has given his vote again to hike the interest rate by .25% like Mr. Martin Weale and Andrew sentence has repeated his calling for hiking by .5% while Possen was the same only vote for increasing the buying assets plan by another 50b Stg while the other 5 MPC voting members including BOE president Mr. Mervin King preferred leaving the interest rate unchanged at .5% keeping BOE 200b Stg buying bonds plan unchanged as taking any direction will cause emerging of the other direction risks as we have seen recently UK Q4 GDP quarterly final reading showing shrinking by .5% and in the same time rising of UK Feb CPI to 4.4% yearly which underpinned the cable to reach 1.6399 and now the cable is expected to face this same level by God's will, if the MPC could get over its fear of the downside risks facing the economic growth by hiking the interest rate as what is pricing currently in the market is the inability of the BOE of taking any direction because of the stagflation pressure which has been very remarkable in the recent release of confederation of British industry's monthly retail sales growth poll of February which has fallen to 6 from 37 in January to ensure the market worries about the growing pace of the demand which is moving the growth up and in the same time the figure of the selling prices inside the retail sales sector has shown strong rising from 43 in January to 73 in February which shows the need of tightening too.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

There was no change to be mentioned on the Euro exchange rates after the ECB waited tightening actions as it was very widely expected since the ECB president Mr. Trichet has said that it is strong vigilance warranted to watch the prices which is that the ECB is closely monitoring inflation referring to that the decision was unanimously and it is not an action of a series to be taken and it is left to the developments of the inflation which is still heading up as what has been seen in the flash figure of Mar EU CPI which has risen to 2.6% from 2.4% in February yearly and he has confirmed also the encouraging of Portugal to take a share of the aid of the European bailing out plan and he has stressed that the decision is to anchor the prices rising and to restore prices stability over the medium term for the majority of the 331 millions of the Euro area not in the benefit of any country but the others stressing on that it is necessary to avoid a second round effect of inflation by avoiding the waves rising pressure and the need of taking the financial for reducing the deficit of the debt ailing economies in the Euro area. The single currency movement was contained recently by the market waiting for this ECB action to hike the interest rate for containing the prices which can underpin the single currency and in the same time, the negative effect of this tightening action which can also put more weights on the debt ailing countries in the Euro area as it should increase the cost of repaying their debts driving up the yields of their new issuance too which can weakening their creditability further weighing negatively on the Euro and its backed securities.
The single currency is trading now above 1.4347 which has been reached earlier this week as the pressure on the greenback has continued with the market sentiment impacted by the Fed's believing that the underling inflation over the medium term is expected to be stable despite the rising of the oil and commodities prices which can be temporary suggesting that there can be further period of keeping its easing policy undermining the greenback having more rooms for prices to grow up with no serious worries from the Fed which can underpin the gold to make new highs too as a hedge against inflation.
The sterling could come also up versus the greenback after it had been under pressure following the MPC decisions of keeping the interest rate unchanged again at .5% and the 200b Stg buying assets plan unchanged as some investors were expecting a tightening action for containing the prices rising after UK CPI has reached 4.4% in February with the current high commodities and energy prices but it looks that the stagflation pressure is still containing most of the MPC members as taking a tightening action can cause a negative effect of the struggling economic growth of UK which has shrunk by .5% in the last quarter of 2011 quarterly while taking another step of easing by widening the buying assets plan further can cause further rising of the prices can even cause a reversal indirect impact by dampening the demand at the current high commodities and energy prices which actually have hurt the manufacturing performance in UK as we have seen lately the release of UK manufacturing productions of March which have come unchanged from February while the market was waiting for increasing by .5% from .9% in February and also the industrial productions of March have come weaker than expected easing back by 1.2% while the market was waiting for increasing by .4% from .3% in February and these weak data come after the recent declining of UK PMI manufacturing index which has fallen in March to 57.1 from 61.5 in February while the market was waiting for 60.9 which shows that there can be harder times in the case of further rising of the commodities and energy prices.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The greenback has started the week under pressure after the Fed's Vice President Yellen has said it clearly that it is too soon to end the Fed's current quantitive easing stance on the current economic conditions and this statement has come to confirm what the Fed's believing that the underling inflation over the medium term is expected to be stable despite the rising of the oil and commodities prices which can be temporary as what has been said by the Fed's Chairman Mr. Bernenke and has been obvious in the recent meeting minutes of the Fed too with no signal for hiking the interest rate until now and this direction can be maintained as we have seen no implication to be mentioned on US ISM manufacturing index which has come at 61.2 which the market waiting for just 60.5 from 61.4 showing no easing of the demand in the sector despite the rising of the commodities and oil prices which can give the conclusion that the easing period can be extended undermining the greenback having more rooms for prices to grow up with no tightening action to be taken against them which can underpin the demand for the precious metal like the gold and the Silver as a hedge against inflation.
So, the silver could continue rising making new times records versus the greenback reaching 41.94 during the Asian session after breaking above 40$ by the end of last week which could trigger stop losing orders on reaching this new trading area after it has ended its short correction which has ended at 36.45 well above the trend line support extended from 26.39 to 33.66 and also the supporting level at 37.06 and 38.04.
While the demand for the gold is still growing as a safe haven option for saving the value of the wealth during the current military operations in Libya which can be extended with no clear victory and also as hedge against inflation too to get over 1476$ while the market is waiting for heading to 1500$ psychological level with the current persisting of the Fed's easing stance in US and also in Europe even after the ECB's expected hiking of the interest rate by .25% for containing the prices, it is not expected to be repeated easily for containing the inflation by the firm required way as most of the European economies are in need of the low interest rate for stimulating their struggling economic growth while there are other ailing countries by their budget deficit which can suffer further from the rising of their bonds issuance yields because of this tightening action Like Greece, Ireland and Portugal while BOE is still unable until now to take a tightening action against the rapid rising of prices suffering from the stagflation pressure after UK GDP has shrank by .5% q/q in the last quarter of 2010 and even if the MPC decided finally to take an action to hike the interest rate, it is not expected to by the required way to contain the inflation which reached to 4.4% yearly in February and it can reach to 5% as the recent MPC minutes have shown.
The gold next supporting levels are expected to be at 1410$, 1393$ then 1380$ which has been reached after the Japanese earthquake on asking for squaring liquidity and specially for the Japanese yen which is widely used as a funding currency on its very low interest rate for lowering the investments costs which affected negatively on the investment sentiment generally but the gold could rebound again as the liquidity has brought back to the markets, after the BOJ intervention which has been supported by the G7 with no criticism from the European countries while the Japanese exports are depressed from different sides after the demand for the yen has pushed USDJPY below 80 reaching 76.35 while the Japanese products have become exposed to the radiations tests all over the world.
While the silver could continue rising too breaking above 40$ after it has ended its short correction which has ended at 36.45 to reach in the beginning of this week 41,94 getting use of stop losing orders after 40$ and being above the trend line support extended from 26.39 to 33.66 and also the supporting level at 37.06 and 38.04.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The risk appetite has been undermined by the Japanese announcement of elevating the current nuclear radiations risks which are facing Japan to the seventh degree which is the same degree which has been announced after Chernobyl nuclear crisis to bring back the worries about the Japanese economy to contain current market sentiment driving up the low yielding currencies and the Swiss Frank putting pressure on the British pound and the single currency helping the greenback and the Japanese yen to correct some of their recent loses.
This dovish sentiment could also weigh on the European and US equities markets to open in the red territory leading Dow Jones to continue easing back from the new high which has been reached last week at 12450 since the credit crisis trading currently at 12250.
The Swiss Frank could get back the investors' interests again with the persisting of the nuclear worries in Japan while the tension in the middle is still on with no clear end forced UK and US to declare the need for taking more aggressive actions against El Qaddafi's troops which can increase the demand for the Swiss frank too as a safe haven option.
While the British pound is still under pressure since the release of March CPI index which has got back to 4% from 4.4% in February while the market was waiting for 4.4% again which can lower the pressure on BOE to hike the interest rate for fighting the inflation focusing on the growth needs of the current kept easing monetary stance which can undermine the cable which has been trading at 1.6315 by the release of the inflation data to be traded currently at 1.626 after reaching 1.6225
Despite the dovish Germane ZEW economic sentiment release of March which has fallen to 7.6 from 14.1 which the market was waiting for 11.3 and also EU ZEW economic sentiment release of April which came down to 19.7 from 31 in March while the market was waiting for easing to 29.6 merely, the single currency could continue rising from 1.4375 to record new high versus the greenback since the credit crisis at 1.4518 thanks to the interest rate outlook differential which stands by the single currency currently while the Fed is widely expected to extended its holding of its quantitive easing policy into this year downplaying the prices upside risks on the underling inflation over the long term.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

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FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The worries about the inflation are containing the market sentiment currently after the rising of China CPI of march to 5.$% while it was waiting to be 5.1% from 4.9% in January and February after easing in last December to 4.6% from 5.1% in November and Chinese PPI of march to has increased to 7.3% from 7.2% in February which shows continued inflation pressure over the producing level too which can increase the probability of increasing the interest rate by PBOC again after raising it 3 times since the charismas after asking its banks to increase its liquidity reserves 6 times last year for containing the inflation pressure which some of it has resulted from the Fed's adopted quantitive easing policy which is weighing negatively on the greenback driving up the prices of the commodities and energy while it is till looking to the fed that it is too soon to end this policy as what has been said a week ago by the Fed's Vice president Yellen which cam inline with the recent statements of Bernenke which downplayed the risks of rising the energy prices over the long term referring to that the rising of the oil and commodities prices can be temporary and this direction has been obvious in the recent meeting minutes of the Fed too with no signal for hiking the interest rate until now and this direction can be maintained as we have seen no implication to be mentioned on US ISM manufacturing index which has come at 61.2 which the market waiting for just 60.5 from 61.4 showing no easing of the demand in the sector despite the rising of the commodities and oil prices which can give the conclusion that the easing period can be extended undermining the greenback having more rooms for prices to grow up with no tightening action to be taken against them which can underpin the demand for the precious metal like the gold and the Silver as a hedge against inflation.
So, the gold could rise to a new high at 1479 during the Asian session as a requesting it as a hedge against inflation after this remarked rising of the Chinese consumers price index heading to 1500$ psychological waited level and this can be done in the case of having today stronger inflation data out from EU and US as we wait today for EU CPI index of March after the flash reading of it has shown rising to 2.6% from 2.4% yearly in February while the core figure excluding the food and energy is forecasted to rise by 1% as February and also we wait today for Mar US CPI index which is expected to rise monthly broadly by .5% while the core figure excluding the food and energy is expected to rise by .2%. The gold next supporting levels are waited to be at 1450$ then 1410$, 1393$ then 1380$ which has been reached after the Japanese earthquake on asking for liquidity
And also the silver could jump above 1.42 level after this strong inflation figures of china as a hedge versus inflation while situation in Libya is still mixed threating the oil supplies from the middles east to be cut. The silver could end its recent profit taken wave at 39.67 making a higher low after it has ended the previous correction at 36.45 well above the trend line support extended from 26.39 to 33.66 which is still underpinning it technically and its next supporting levels are expected to be at 40.52 then 39.67 again following over a longer range by 38.04, 37.06 and 36.45 again.
While the British pound is still under pressure since the release of March CPI index which has got back to 4% from 4.4% in February while the market was waiting for 4.4% again which can lower the pressure on BOE to hike the interest rate for fighting the inflation focusing on the growth needs of the current kept easing monetary stance which can undermine the cable which has been trading at 1.6315 by the release of the inflation data to be traded currently at 1.626 after reaching 1.6225
And despite the dovish Germane ZEW economic sentiment release of March which has fallen to 7.6 from 14.1 which the market was waiting for 11.3 and also EU ZEW economic sentiment release of April which came down to 19.7 from 31 in March while the market was waiting for easing to 29.6 merely, the single currency could continue rising to record new high versus the greenback since the credit crisis at 1.4518 thanks to the interest rate outlook differential which stands by the single currency currently while the Fed is widely expected to extended its holding of its quantitive easing policy into this year downplaying the prices upside risks on the underling inflation over the long term.
The risk appetite has been undermined this week also by the Japanese announcement of elevating the current nuclear radiations risks which are facing Japan to the seventh degree which is the same degree which has been announced after Chernobyl nuclear crisis to bring back the worries about the Japanese economy to contain current market sentiment driving up the low yielding currencies and specially the Japanese yen which could correct some of its recent loses versus the greenback which could reach 85.53 thanks to the BOJ intervention and the US better than expected jobs data of March and the USDJPY is trading currently just above 83
And also the Swiss frank could gain momentum this week by the continued tensions in Libya which have no close clear end until now driving UK and France to call for taking more aggressive actions against El Qaddafi's troops forming more pressure on USDCHF to break .8915 reaching .8895 after this new Japanese risk alert which has weighed negatively too on the European and US equities markets this week which are forecasted to have dovish opening today from as the risk aversion which can be triggered by the increased markets expectations of having further monetary tightening steps from China for containing the ascending inflation upside risks in china.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The risk aversion could contain the market sentiment in the beginning of this week on worries about the debt outlook in the Euro area after rumors that there is new preparing request from Greece to restructure its debt while there are market worries about changing of the Finnish government can threat the Portuguese new request for the aid of the bailing out plan which has been underpinned by 190 billion euros to be 440 billion recently from 250 billion for aiding European ailing of debts countries. The 10 year yields of the Greek bonds have risen to 14.4% and also the Portuguese 10 year bonds yields have surged to 9.1% and the Irish 10 year bonds yields have risen to 9.8% while the European equities markets have come under strong pressure dragging the US stocks to open deeply into the negative territory forcing Dow to lose more than 200 points until now as the risk apitite has been already undermined since the PBOC has sent its fourth request of this year to the Chinese banks to exceed their reserved holding of liquidities by .5% for fighting the inflation which has reached in March 5.4% while it has been forecasted to be just 5.1% from 4.9% in January and February after easing in last December to 4.6% from 5.1% in November and Chinese PPI of march to has increased to 7.3% from 7.2% in February which shows continued inflation pressure over the producing level too.
This new request of PBOC has been encouraged by the stronger than expected Q1 GDP of this year which rose by 9.7% yearly from 9.8% in the last quarter of 2010 while it was expected to ease to 9.4% and this request is number 4 this year and number 10 since the beginning of last year with 3 times of raising the interest rate since the last charismas for containing the inflation pressure which some of it has come from the tension in the middle east and specially labia and some other has resulted from the Fed's adopted quantitive easing policy which is weighing negatively on the greenback driving up the prices of the commodities and energy while it is till looking to the fed that it is too soon to end this policy as what has been said a week ago by the Fed's Vice president Yellen which came inline with the recent statements of Bernenke which downplayed the risks of rising the energy prices over the long term referring to that the rising of the oil and commodities prices can be temporary and this direction has been obvious in the recent meeting minutes of the Fed too with no signal for hiking the interest rate until now and this direction can be maintained as we have seen no implication to be mentioned on US ISM manufacturing index which has come at 61.2 which the market waiting for just 60.5 from 61.4 showing no easing of the demand in the sector despite the rising of the commodities and oil prices which can give the conclusion that the easing period can be extended undermining the greenback having more rooms for prices to grow up with no tightening action to be taken against them which can underpin the demand for the precious metal like the gold and the Silver as a hedge against inflation.
The gold next supporting levels are waited to be at 1450$ then 1410$, 1393$ then 1380$ which has been reached after the Japanese earthquake and it still well supported by being above the trend line support extended from 1307$ to 1380$ heading to 1500$ psychological waited level underpinned by the current worries about the debt outlook in Europe which have dampen the business sentiment encouraging the investors to look for it as a safe haven stance of their wealth value after the inflation in EU have come stronger than expected in March above the flash reading of it which was 2.6% at 2.7% from 2.4% in February which can encourage the ECB to move forward tightening its monetary stance but from another side, this can raise the bonds yield putting more the pressure on Greece, Ireland and Portugal while the other European countries are not growing at strong pace of recovery which can tackle the tightening stance to be not at the required pace for fighting the inflation firmly.
The silver could open this week trading above 43 after it could jump above 1.42 level following the strong inflation figures of china as a hedge versus inflation while situation in Libya is still mixed threating the oil supplies from the middles east to be cut. The silver could end its recent profit taken wave at 39.67 making a higher low after it has ended the previous correction at 36.45 well above the trend line support extended from 26.39 to 33.66 which is still underpinning it technically and its next supporting levels are expected to be at 40.52 then 39.67 again following over a longer range by 38.04, 37.06 and 36.45 again.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com