Trading Tips from 21 to 30

[walid]

The single currency has been dragged down below 1.32 under technical pressure after failed tries to get over the area from 1.3385 to 1.3425 versus the greenback which can open the way to 1.359 following by the recent previous top at 1.379 and this can be a stronger level as breaking it can open the way again to 1.4 psychological level while the way down should be met by supporting level at 1.306 then the main supporting level at 1.297 whereas the pair has met new buying interest recently and where the pair has formed a previous intermediate bottom of its rally which has ended to 1.428 and breaking it can lead to 1.26 as the main bottom of this previous ascending rally which has ended at 1.4281 by the release of US non-farm payroll of October which has come better than expected adding 151k after losing 41k in September while the market was waiting for adding just 60k encouraging the investors to take profits covering their greenback selling as the Fed has actually taken its waited decision of adding another 600B$ to its adopted quantitive easing policy of buying US treasuries till the end of June 2011 which was weighing negatively on the greenback but this greenback buying sentiment has not stopped there as the profit taken wave has found momentum from the market worries about the debt contagion inside the Euro zone which increased in November containing the market sentiment weighing negatively on the single currency to get down below 1.30 and hurting the risk appetite of the investors which has been hit once again by the tension in the semi Korean island hurting the markets pushing the inventors to square their carried trades further buying back the greenback and the Japanese yen and pushing the gold to get over 1380$ resistance breaking above 1400$ psychological level again underpinned by the rising of oil prices which are widely expected in the markets currently to go above 100$ next year with the recovery getting momentum and also the ECB promises to give unlimited funding of the European debts exposure of these ailing countries at least in the short term putting unavoidable carried risks on the shoulder of the ECB by a huge ample of liquidities can be injected in the nerves of the EU economies as we have seen recently the successful Portuguese and Spanish auctions with announced ECB supporting of these bonds prices lowering their yields and giving stability to the markets which has been in turmoil last month helping the Single currency to find support finally bouncing back from 1.297 last week to test 1.342 this week despite the rising of the costs of covering these auctions but Trichet has come back to declare the ECB readiness and sticking to its previous pledges of buying more bonds could restore more confidence in the markets helping the European equities markets to keep its last week gains until now which have been triggered by these auctions despite the weaker than expected US labor report of November has contained the market sentiment by the end of the week as it has shown an unexpected rising of the unemployment to 9.8% from 9.6% in October and disappointing figure of the non-farm payrolls were expected to be around 150k shocking the market by adding just 39k weighing negatively on the European stocks market which started this week contained by the probability of having more added funds to the current offered bailing out package with the IMF which can have more funds from US for this purpose but as it was expected, Merkel has come out to rule out going forward to this in the near term which supported the single currency but that does not object that there can be a need of this later and before 2013 when the working of this current one ending if the debt position of those ailing countries exacerbated and faced further weakness of their growth pace lagging behind Germany which has grown by .7% in the third quarter this year while Greece has shrunk by 1.1 while the EU growth average was just .4%.
This current weak growth rates can continue as long as we see the US investment and consuming spending are still struggling and unable to create enough jobs to move the growth up sacking for further help from the Fed which may fund itself forced to inject more and more funds pushing the commodities and energy prices globally up while US has not get out from the risks of deflation forcing the other countries and especially the Asian to curb the investment and cooling their economies as we see in Korea and China currently criticizing this quantitive easing policy of US which is hurting their economic growth and has no clear end yet as we wait later this week by god's will for Ben Bernenke to talk about the possibility of taking more steps adding more funds as the US labor market is still struggling and that's beside the tax cuts which is still held since Bush's presidency and it has been decided to be kept again yesterday which has given some supports to the US stocks before paring most of their gains by the session close.
God Willing, the market attention will be paid tomorrow to the BOE to know whether or not it is to take further easing steps adding more funds to their current 200b Stg buying bonds following US or even the ECB which declared its readiness to buy more and more sovereign governmental bonds preventing the debt contagion in the Euro zone providing the required money for giving stability of its financially market for spurring spending can move the growth faster with a lower costs than what can be paid in the normal bonds auctions without their supporting or the MPC will be worried about the inflation upside risks outlook with UK CPI reading still above 3% yearly reaching 3.2% in October will cap them again from taking such steps especially after The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has seen UK GDP recent quarter to November up by 0.6% from .5% to October.

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

God Willing, the market attention will be paid today to the BOE to know whether or not it is to take further easing steps adding more funds to their current 200b Stg buying bonds following US or even the ECB which declared its readiness to buy more and more sovereign governmental bonds preventing the debt contagion in the Euro zone providing the required money for giving stability of its financially market for spurring spending can move the growth faster with a lower costs than what can be paid in the normal bonds auctions without their supporting or the MPC will be worried about the inflation upside risks outlook with UK CPI reading still above 3% yearly reaching 3.2% in October will cap them again from taking such steps especially after The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has seen UK GDP recent quarter to November up by 0.6% from .5% to October.
The single currency is still under technical pressure after failing to get over the area from 1.3385 to 1.3425 versus the greenback which can open the way to 1.359 following by the recent previous top at 1.379 and this can be a stronger level as breaking it can open the way again to 1.4 psychological level while the way down should be met by supporting level at 1.306 then the recent supporting level at 1.297 whereas the pair has met new buying interest recently and where the pair has formed a previous intermediate bottom of its rally which has ended to 1.428 and breaking it can lead to 1.26 as the main bottom of this previous ascending rally which has ended at 1.4281 by the release of US non-farm payroll of October which has come better than expected adding 151k after losing 41k in September while the market was waiting for adding just 60k encouraging the investors to take profits covering their greenback selling as the Fed has actually taken its waited decision of adding another 600B$ to its adopted quantitive easing policy of buying US treasuries till the end of June 2011 which was weighing negatively on the greenback but this greenback buying sentiment has not stopped there as the profit taken wave has found momentum from the market worries about the debt contagion inside the Euro zone which increased in November containing the market sentiment weighing negatively on the single currency to get down below 1.30 and hurting the risk appetite of the investors which has been hit once again by the tension in the semi Korean island hurting the markets pushing the inventors to square their carried trades further buying back the greenback and the Japanese yen and pushing the gold to get over 1380$ resistance breaking above 1400$ psychological level again underpinned by the rising of oil prices which are widely expected in the markets currently to go above 100$ next year with the recovery getting momentum and also the ECB promises to give unlimited funding of the European debts exposure of these ailing countries at least in the short term putting unavoidable carried risks on the shoulder of the ECB by a huge ample of liquidities can be injected in the nerves of the EU economies as we have seen recently the successful Portuguese and Spanish auctions with announced ECB supporting of these bonds prices lowering their yields and giving stability to the markets which has been in turmoil last month helping the Single currency to find support finally bouncing back from 1.297 last week to test 1.342 this week despite the rising of the costs of covering these auctions but Trichet has come back to declare the ECB readiness and sticking to its previous pledges of buying more bonds could restore more confidence in the markets helping the European equities markets to keep its last week gains until now which have been triggered by these auctions despite the weaker than expected US labor report of November has contained the market sentiment by the end of the week as it has shown an unexpected rising of the unemployment to 9.8% from 9.6% in October and disappointing figure of the non-farm payrolls were expected to be around 150k shocking the market by adding just 39k weighing negatively on the European stocks market which started this week contained by the probability of having more added funds to the current offered bailing out package with the IMF which can have more funds from US for this purpose but as it was expected, Merkel has come out to rule out going forward to this in the near term which supported the single currency but that does not object that there can be a need of this later and before 2013 when the working of this current one ending if the debt position of those ailing countries exacerbated and faced further weakness of their growth pace lagging behind Germany which has grown by .7% in the third quarter this year while Greece has shrunk by 1.1 while the EU growth average was just .4%.
This current weak growth rates can continue as long as we see the US investment and consuming spending are still struggling and unable to create enough jobs to move the growth up sacking for further help from the Fed which may fund itself forced to inject more and more funds pushing the commodities and energy prices globally up while US has not get out from the risks of deflation forcing the other countries and especially the Asian to curb the investment and cooling their economies as we see in Korea and China currently criticizing this quantitive easing policy of US which is hurting their economic growth and has no clear end yet as long as the US labor market is still struggling and that's beside the tax cuts which are still held since Bush's presidency and it has been decided to be kept again this week.

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[amir_a]

شكرا اخى على الرد
من ناحبه دوتشى بنك اعتقد انهم wihte lables fot fxcm
افكر فى فتح حساب عند شركه DUKASCOPY
الشركه الوحيده الى من بحثى فى النت وجدت تقييم جيد لها.وهم على ما يدعون انهم
ECN BROKER > NO DEALING DESK
مع الشكر اخى
امير

[walid]

ربنا يوفقق في اختيارك و في اتخاذ القرار.

[walid]

God Willing, the market sentiment will be contained by tomorrow Fed's meeting waiting for any new probable adding to its quantitive easing policy after the recent disappointing release of US labor report of November which has shown rising of the unemployment rate to 9.8% from 9.6% in October and lower than the market expectations non-farm payroll added just 39k while the market was waiting for about 150k which shown that the US labor market is still struggling and there can be further existence of the deflation pressure on it which is fearing the Fed and may lead to further easing steps which can hurt the greenback pushing the commodities and energy prices globally up while US has not get out from these risks of deflation forcing other countries and especially the Asian to curb the investment and cooling their economies as we see in Korea and China which increased its banks reserve requirements six times this year by 0.5 percent for curbing the inflation upside risks as the most preferred way to the Chinese until now than hiking the interest rate or letting the Yuan to appreciate further criticizing this US quantitive easing policy of US which is causing a devaluation of the greenback hurting their economic growth and their exports and in the same time helping to tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ and as long as the US labor market is still in need of supporting, there will be no clear end of this easing policy and tax cuts in US which kept these cuts which have been decided during Bush's presidency in another way of easing can hurt the US budget and treasuries prices driving the US treasury yields up as we have seen by the end of last week.
The greenback could find support on a profit taken wave across the broad has been triggered by better than expected release of US non-farm payroll of October in the beginning of November which has come better than the market expectations of just 60k after losing 41k in September encouraging the investors to take profits covering their greenback selling after the decision of the Fed has actually taken on the third of last month to add another 600B$ to its adopted quantitive easing policy of buying US treasuries till the end of June 2011 pushing the greenback down to remarkable levels especially versus the single currency from nearly 1.3030 to 1.4281 but this was just a beginning as the greenback has continued its rising across the broad fueled by the market worries about the tension of the semi Korean island which tempered the markets pushing the inventors to square further their carry trades buying back the greenback which was underpinned by the concerning debt situation of the European countries again contain the market sentiment hitting back the single currency last month driving it below 1.3 psychological level before finding finally new buying at 1.297 on successful Portuguese and Spanish auctions with announced ECB supporting of the bonds prices lowering their yields and giving stability to the markets which have been in a turmoil recently helping the Single currency to retest 1.342 level last week despite the rising of the costs of covering these auctions which is still high relatively but Trichet could come back to declare the ECB readiness and sticking to its previous pledges of buying more bonds restoring more confidence helping the European stocks markets. Now, The single currency is still under technical pressure after failing to get over the area from 1.3385 to 1.3425 versus the greenback which can open the way to 1.359 following by the recent previous top at 1.379 and this can be a stronger level as breaking it can open the way again to 1.4 psychological level while the way down should be met by supporting level at 1.306 then the recent supporting level at 1.297 whereas the pair has met new buying interest recently and where the pair has formed a previous intermediate bottom of its rally which has ended to 1.428 and breaking it can lead to 1.26 as the main bottom of this previous ascending rally which has ended at 1.4281

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

God Willing, The single currency is in need now to confirm its breaking of 1.342 level which can open the way to 1.359 following by the recent previous top at 1.379 and this can form a stronger level as breaking it can open the way again to 1.4 psychological level while the way down should be met by supporting levels at 1.338, 1.318, 1.306 then the recent supporting level at 1.297 whereas the pair has met new buying interest recently and where the pair has formed its previous bottom and breaking it can lead to 1.26 as the main bottom of its previous ascending rally which has ended at 1.4281 versus the greenback which was under pressure yesterday versus the single currency as the market sentiment has been possessed by decision of the Chinese central to keep the interest rate unchanged after it has requested from its banks reserve requirements to be increased by 0.5 percent to be the sixth time this year for curbing the inflation upside risks as the most preferred way to the Chinese until now than hiking the interest rate or letting the Yuan to appreciate further under the American pressure but this decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was a proof to the market that china is not rushing to do this right not which helped the commodities and energy prices to rise putting pressure on the greenback on increasing of the risk appetite of the investors who are cheered by this week European leaders meeting hoping for reaching what can restore more confidence in the European debt but it looks that there are difference in their opinions besides this week important Irish decision about the budget and the need for taking more austerity measures which can temper this market sentiment hurting the single currency again after it could get above 1.342 following this wave of greenback selling and rising of the European equities markets helping the US stocks to open up before giving back these gains with the closing of the European markets to end it nearly flat yesterday waiting by god's will for today Fed's meeting results which can include new adding to its quantitive easing policy after the recent disappointing release of US labor report of November which has shown rising of the unemployment rate to 9.8% from 9.6% in October and lower than the market expectations non-farm payroll added just 39k while the market was waiting for about 150k which shown that the US labor market is still struggling and there can be further existence of the deflation pressure on it which is fearing the Fed and may lead to further easing steps which can hurt the greenback pushing the commodities and energy prices globally up while US has not get out from these risks of deflation forcing other countries and especially the Asian to curb the investment and cooling their economies as we see in Korea and China which increased its banks reserve requirements six times this year by 0.5 percent for curbing the inflation upside risks as the most preferred way to the Chinese until now than hiking the interest rate or letting the Yuan to appreciate further criticizing this US quantitive easing policy of US which is causing a devaluation of the greenback hurting their economic growth and their exports and in the same time helping to tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ and as long as the US labor market is still in need of supporting, there will be no clear end of this easing policy and tax cuts in US which can be kept longer this week since declaring them during Bush's presidency in another way of easing can hurt the US budget and treasuries prices driving the US treasury yields up as we have seen by the end of last week.
Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The Fed has kept its buying bond plan as it is but it can change its pace of buying in it as the economy needs and that what we have ended to from the Fed's US assessment which has not come with remarked changes referring to that the weak growing pace can not support the labor or give stability to the housing market sufficiently as required which can underpin the downward of prices from another side which help the Fed to maintain the interest rate unchanged building on its buying bonds plans not influenced yet by the potential inflation risks but Mr. Hoening the Fed's governor of Kansas who voted against this decision appreciating these inflation upside risks over the long term.
The US stocks have lost a lot of its gains again by the end of the session after the release of the Fed's assessment which has disappointed the speculations of adding more funds to the 600B$ buying assets plans keeping these plans volume unchanged lowering the market discounting these probabilities.
The treasuries yields have gone up markedly in the recent period since the previous meeting of the 3rd of November when the 2 years treasuries yields were around .38% while they are now about .66% which refers to an increasing of the cost of borrowing in US despite the Fed's injected funds into these debts which should lower its returns but the market is still expecting further easing steps from the Fed and longer period of keeping the tax cuts in US which can widen the US budget deficit hiking the treasuries yields increasing the need of selling these treasuries notes while the greenback seems getting benefits from the rising of these borrowing costs which can be triggered by the rising of the notes benchmarks and this was obvious to the market today after the Fed had announced that it will not buy more than what has been planed which can support this link currently adding strength to the greenback which dragged the single currency below 1.335 while it was trading above 1.34 before the Fed's decision triggering more selling of the notes. It is convincing reasonable story and By God's Will, it can live more than this containing the market sentiment getting use of the Euro owes because of the debt crisis which can exacerbate by no reached deal from the European leaders meeting this week who are actually looking in split with Germany calling for no more added funds over the near term and cooling of the current package with the IMF and the hopes for adding more funds to this package encouraging Spain and Portugal to take a share from it which can procedural lead Germany to add more funds supporting these debt ailing economies which are looking in need of long period to cover its financial position as we have seen Greece last week having extension of its loans maturity to pay them back. That's beside the political position inside Ireland which is still complicated and unstable after the decision of having the aid of the bailing out package which is offered by the European countries and mainly by Germany and the IMF which is underpinned by US which forces them to take further austerity financial measures including tightening of their spending and hiking of the taxes which can pass hardly this week with strong criticizing of these measures which should effect negatively as well on the growth pace of the country which was growing by more than 10% in the 1990s supported by these low taxes which attracted the investments to it.
The gold eased back also from above 1400$ negatively impacted by the energy and commodities prices which have gone down by no more added funds to the US quantitive easing policy Fed's decision after they have been underpinned by the probabilities of having new funds especially after the disappointing release of November US labor report which has shown rising of the unemployment rate to 9.8% from 9.6% in October and lower than the market expectations non-farm payroll added just 39k while the market was waiting for about 150k which can move the Fed to take further easing steps depreciating the greenback increasing the prices of the energy and commodities globally while the US economy is still in need to fight the deflation pressure forcing other countries and especially the Asian to curb the investment spending and cooling their economies as we see in Korea and China which increased its banks reserve requirements six times this year by 0.5 percent for curbing the inflation upside risks as the most preferred way to the Chinese until now than hiking the interest rate or letting the Yuan to appreciate further criticizing this US quantitive easing policy of US which is causing a devaluation of the greenback hurting their economic growth and their exports and in the same time helping to tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ and as long as the US labor market is still in need of supporting, there will be no clear end of this easing policy and tax cuts in US which can be kept longer this week since declaring them during Bush's presidency in another way of easing can hurt the US budget and treasuries prices driving the US treasury yields up as we have seen by the end of last week and after the Fed's decision.
Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

As expected and as what has been mentioned in yesterday report, Irish voting came very close by 81 for approving against 75 for opposing the bailing out package to be passed hardly despite the strong opposition which mostly see that the 5.8% interest rate average of this 85b euros loan should be lower looking for its banking system to be reliable to carry the debt risks it had but this has not help the single currency which has been hit again by downgrading threats of the Spanish debt rating of Aa1 by Moody's to accumulate more pressure on the single currency versus the greenback which is still supported by the Fed decision of keeping its purchasing assets plan unchanged changing the pace of it as the economy needs referring to the weak growing pace which can not support the labor or give stability to the housing market sufficiently as required which can underpin the downward of prices from another side which can help the Fed to keep the interest rate unchanged building on its quantitive easing policy to support the economic growth unfazed of the potential inflation risks but Mr. Hoening the Fed's governor of Kansas who voted against this decision appreciating these inflation upside risks over the long term but on the short term we are still watching a sluggish growth of the prices and deflation risks as we have seen US CPI of November coming at .1% monthly while it was expected to be .2% and the core figure excluding the food and energy could rise by .1% as expected after 2 months of flat reading maintaining the fed's view and monetary policy which have caused rising of the prices of the energy and commodities depreciating the greenback forcing countries like Sweden which raised the interest rate by .25% this week for curbing the investment spending and cooling the economy and as we see also in Korea and China which increased its banks reserve requirements six times this year by 0.5 percent for curbing the inflation upside risks as the most preferred way to the Chinese until now than hiking the interest rate or letting the Yuan to appreciate further criticizing this US quantitive easing policy of US which is causing a devaluation of the greenback hurting their economic growth and their exports and in the same time helping to tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$ and as long as the US labor market is still in need of supporting, there will be no clear end of this easing policy and tax cuts in US which can be kept longer this week since declaring them during Bush's presidency in another way of easing can hurt the US budget and treasuries prices driving the US treasury yields up as we have seen by the end of last week and after the Fed's decision which triggered selling of the treasuries and rising of its yields driving up the cost of borrowing in US despite the Fed's injected funds into the debt market which should lower returns but the market is still expecting further easing steps from the Fed and longer period of keeping the tax cuts in US which can widen the US budget deficit hiking the treasuries yields increasing the need of selling these held treasuries notes while the greenback seems getting benefits from the rising of the notes benchmarks and that was obvious to the market after the Fed had announced that it will not buy more than what has been planed which can support this link currently adding strength to the greenback which dragged the single currency down to be traded below 1.325 currently and By God's Will, if this convincing story could contain the market sentiment further, it can test its recent formed intermediate bottom at 1.317 and breaking it should lead to 1.306 and then the recent supporting level at 1.297 whereas the pair has met new buying interest recently and breaking it can lead to 1.26 as the main bottom of its previous ascending rally which has ended at 1.4281 versus the greenback.
God willing, we are waiting today from US for the initial jobless claim to 11 December be 425k from 421k from a weak earlier when it has cheered the markets sentiment by 421k and also November US building permits which are expected to rise by .57m from .55m and housing starts to rise by .55m from 52.m and December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey to be 14.1 from 22.5 after NY empire state manufacturing index coming up to 10.6 while it was forecasted to be 3 from -11.1
Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The greenback is still finding support from the recent Fed's decision to keep its purchasing assets plan unchanged changing just the pace of it as the economy needs referring to the weak growing pace which can not support the labor or give stability to the housing market sufficiently as required which can underpin the downward of prices from another side which can help the Fed to keep the interest rate unchanged building on its quantitive easing policy to stimulate the economic growth unfazed of the potential inflation risks but Mr. Hoening the Fed's governor of Kansas who repeated his opposing of this decision appreciating the inflation upside risks over the long term. the market was pricing on a probability of having or referring to a new added funds to this buying assets program of the fed after disappointing release of November US labor report which has shown rising of the unemployment rate to 9.8% from 9.6% in October and lower than the market expectations non-farm payroll added just 39k while the market was waiting for about 150k but the Fed's decision came with no new extra added funds last week which triggered selling of the treasuries and rising of its yields driving up the cost of borrowing in US despite the Fed's injected funds into the debt market which should lower returns but the market is still expecting further easing steps from the Fed and longer period of keeping the tax cuts in US which can widen the US budget deficit hiking the treasuries yields increasing the need of selling these held treasuries notes while the greenback seems well-supported getting benefits from the rising of the notes benchmarks which can drive up the cost of borrowing generally and the demand for the greenback.
While the single currency is still getting hits from the debt crisis which caused unstable political conditions in the Euro zone and austerities financial measures can effect negatively on its growth outlook while the ECB funding plans are expected to be long lived supporting the bonds prices driving the yields down for covering the deficit of the EU debt ailing countries like Ireland which has been downgraded five notches to B with a negative outlook from Aa2 by Moody's which has announced that it can downgrade the Spanish long term credit rating of Aa1 too last week which contained the market sentiment recently weighing negatively on the Euro ignoring the better than expected economic data from Germany which driving the EU economic growth up as we have seen recently the germane IFO business climate recording new historical new high in December at 109.9 since the beginning of it in 1991 after it has made 109.3 in November and the germane retails sales figure of October rising up by 2.3% monthly while it was expected to be up by just 1.3% after falling in September by 1.8% which helped EU consumer confidence getting up to new 3 years high and lead November EU manufacturing PMI index to be above 55 again at 55.3 from 55.5 in October. The single currency is now trading below 1.317 support and breaking it should lead to 1.306 and then the recent supporting level at 1.297 whereas the pair has met new buying interest recently and passing it can lead to 1.26 as the main bottom of its previous ascending rally which has ended at 1.4281 versus the greenback.
While the US data have come better than expected also from US recently as we have seen December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey rising to 24.3 while it was waited to be just 14.1 from 22.5 after NY empire state manufacturing index coming up to 10.6 and it was forecasted to be 3 from -11.1 which could support the US stocks to keep most of its gains after the market has seen in the US CPI of November coming at .1% monthly while it was expected to be .2% and the core figure excluding the food and energy could rise by .1% as expected after 2 months of flat reading maintaining of the Fed's view and monetary policy which can support the stocks prices but forcing countries like Sweden to raise the interest rate for curbing the investment spending and cooling the economy with the depreciation of the greenback versus the energy and commodities prices and also in Korea and China which attracted the market focusing by increasing its banks reserve requirements six times this year by 0.5 percent for curbing the inflation upside risks as the most preferred way to the Chinese until now than hiking the interest rate or letting the Yuan to appreciate further criticizing this US quantitive easing policy of US which is causing a devaluation of the greenback hurting their economic growth and their exports and also their stocks markets and in the same time helping to tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$. The European stocks markets have been underpinned recently by the ECB supporting of the bonds markets lowering the yields giving back some lost confidence to the investors last month when the market was focusing on the debt crisis but these recent gains will always be under the threats of the debt contagion worries which can increase putting these stocks back under pressure and the single currency which has a weaker positions with the market expectations of pumping new funds into countries actually suffering from weak financial position and accumulated deficit like Greece which could have an extension of its loans maturity and also Spain and Portugal which is the nearest to take a share from the bailing out package which can convince Germany to add more funds to it.
Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The risk appetite has improved during the Asian session pushing the stocks prices up putting pressure on the greenback after it was little changed from the beginning of the week trading in a tight range across the broad amid expected thin trading in the days ahead before the charismas holidays. The single currency is trying to get back above 1.318 again but failing to get over it can open the way back to 1.306 and then the recent supporting level at 1.297 whereas the pair has met new buying interest recently and passing it can lead to 1.26 as the main bottom of its previous ascending rally which has ended at 1.4281 versus the greenback which is still finding support from the recent Fed's decision to keep its purchasing assets plan unchanged changing just the pace of it as the economy needs referring to the weak growing pace which can not support the labor or give stability to the housing market sufficiently as required which can underpin the downward of prices from another side which can help the Fed to keep the interest rate unchanged building on its quantitive easing policy to stimulate the economic growth unfazed of the potential inflation risks but Mr. Hoening the Fed's governor of Kansas who repeated his opposing of this decision appreciating the inflation upside risks over the long term. the market was pricing on a probability of having or referring to a new added funds to this buying assets program of the fed after disappointing release of November US labor report which has shown rising of the unemployment rate to 9.8% from 9.6% in October and lower than the market expectations non-farm payroll added just 39k while the market was waiting for about 150k but the Fed's decision came with no new added funds last week which triggered selling of the treasuries and rising of its yields driving up the cost of borrowing in US despite the Fed's injected funds into the debt market which should lower returns but the market is still expecting further easing steps from the Fed and longer period of keeping the tax cuts in US which can widen the US budget deficit hiking the treasuries yields increasing the need of selling these held treasuries notes while the greenback seems well-supported getting benefits from the rising of the notes benchmarks which can drive up the cost of borrowing generally and the demand for the greenback especially after better than expected data from US recently like December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey rising to 24.3 while it was waited to be just 14.1 from 22.5 after NY empire state manufacturing index coming up to 10.6 and it was forecasted to be 3 from -11.1 which could support the US stocks to keep most of its gains and God Willing, we are waiting this week for US Existing Home Sales of November to be 4.75m from 4.43m in October and New Home Sales to be .3m from .283m in October and also US Q3 GDP to be 2.8% from 1.7% in the second quarter yearly while the US stocks are still finding support from the tame inflation pressure which encourage the Fed to keep its quantitive easing policy for a longer period if not adding more funding steps to it, as we have seen recently that US CPI of November coming at .1% monthly while it was expected to be .2% and the core figure excluding the food and energy could rise by .1% as expected after 2 months of flat reading maintaining of the Fed's view and monetary policy supporting the stocks prices but forcing countries like Sweden to raise the interest rate for curbing the investment spending and cooling the economy with the depreciation of the greenback versus the energy and commodities prices and also in Korea and China which attracted the market focusing by increasing its banks reserve requirements six times this year by 0.5 percent for curbing the inflation upside risks as the most preferred way to the Chinese until now than hiking the interest rate or letting the Yuan to appreciate further criticizing this US quantitive easing policy of US which is causing a devaluation of the greenback hurting their economic growth and their exports and also their stocks markets and in the same time helping to tightening the US trade deficit which came down in October to 38.7b$ from 44.6b$ in September while the market was waiting for 44.8b$. The European stocks markets have been underpinned recently by the ECB supporting of the bonds markets lowering the yields giving back some lost confidence to the investors last month when the market was focusing on the debt crisis but these recent gains will always be under the threats of the debt contagion worries which can increase putting these stocks back under pressure and the single currency which has a weaker positions with the market expectations of pumping new funds into countries actually suffering from weak financial position and accumulated deficit like Greece which could have an extension of its loans maturity and also Spain and Portugal which is the nearest to take a share from the bailing out package which can convince Germany to add more funds to it.
While the single currency is still getting hits from the debt crisis which caused unstable political conditions in the Euro zone and austerities financial measures can effect negatively on its growth outlook while the ECB funding plans are expected to be long lived supporting the bonds prices driving the yields down for covering the deficit of the EU debt ailing countries like Ireland which has been downgraded five notches to B with a negative outlook from Aa2 by Moody's which has announced that it can downgrade the Spanish long term credit rating of Aa1 too last week which contained the market sentiment recently weighing negatively on the Euro ignoring the better than expected economic data from Germany which driving the EU economic growth up as we have seen recently the germane IFO business climate recording new historical new high in December at 109.9 since the beginning of it in 1991 after it has made 109.3 in November and the germane retails sales figure of October rising up by 2.3% monthly while it was expected to be up by just 1.3% after falling in September by 1.8% which helped EU consumer confidence getting up to new 3 years high and lead November EU manufacturing PMI index to be above 55 again at 55.3 from 55.5 in October.
Best wishes
FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
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