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العودة   منتديات تداول > الادارة والاقتصاد > مـــنــــتــــــدى السلع و العملات والنفط



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قديم 15-12-2011, 12:36 PM   #31
walid
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افتراضي 15/2/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

The single currency could find the power to get over 1.30 versus the greenback because of the flash release of Dec EU manufacturing PMI index which has come at 46.9 while it has been expected to be 46.2 from 46.4 in November and also the flash reading of Dec EU Services PMI index which rose up to 48.3 from 47.5 in November while it was expected to decline further in the shrinking territory below 50 to 47.1 but the single currency has eased back below 1.30 as it is still finding difficulty to have a place above it after breaking it yesterday as the uncertainty is still remaining about the crisis outlook as the market participants have not found out what can make them sure about that the worst of the debt crisis is over while the signs of the recession are still emerging in the Euro area
The single currency has reached yesterday 1.2945 versus the greenback by a new recorded high yielding of the 5 years Italian bonds since the single currency inception for covering 3 billions euros despite the recent ECB's decision to cut the cost of borrowing by 0.25% to be again 1% as again as it was before April meeting as the worries about the EU debt crises are still containing the markets sentiment from a side and from another side, because of the current EU inflation rate which is still at 3 years high at 3% yearly lowering the attractiveness of these bonds which have not become a safe haven option to the investors anymore despite the rising recession signs in the euro zone.
The Single currency downward momentum has accelerated since last week ECB's interest rate cut by 0.25% with a dovish statement about the EU Economic growth focusing in the ECB's efforts for offering cheaper money with no reference to direct interventions injecting new funds in the EU bonds markets assuring that the ECB is forbidden from monetary financing on the current EU treaty to the governments referring to that the ECB should stick to the treaty spirit and the governments should do too.
While the greenback is finding strength on the recent improvement of the US economic performance which gives the Fed leeway to delay a new QE3 further that 's beside the demand for it with the current risk aversion sentiment which dampened the demand in the equities markets especially after the Fed's recent assessment which mentioned this improvement with no reference again to lower the possibility of a new QE3 soon giving support to greenback versus the gold too.
God willing, the single currency can face now supporting level versus the greenback at 1.2945 which could help it to rebound yesterday and in the case of breaking it, there can be another supporting level at by 1.2873 whereas the pair has recorded this year low on the 10th of last January and breaking it can open the way for 1.2586 which has been the formed bottom on 24th of August 2010 and this can be followed by 1.2151 which is the last low before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebound forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 to 1.4939 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again on 4th of May 2011 after a bubble in the commodities market.
While its way up can be met by resisting levels now at 1.3098, 1.3236, 1.3283, 1.3432 before 1.4385 again which capped the pair gains last week putting technical pressure too on this pair and breaking it can lead to another resistance at 1.3546 which has been reached after the Fed's coordinated action to lower the USD cost of borrowing with other five Central banks and the ECB was one of them and breaking 1.3546 can be followed directly by 1.3567 which stands before 1.3613 and breaking it can open the door again to 1.3808 then 1.387 which pressed down the pair capping its rising many times last month.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 05-01-2012, 07:08 PM   #32
walid
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افتراضي 5/1/2012 - The current market sentiment

The pressure on the single currency continued today to get it down below 1.2858 whereas it could rebound last week versus the greenback which is supported by the current risk aversion sentiment which contained the markets worrying about the EU debt crisis outlook.
From another side, The greenback could found strength after the release of better than expected data showing declining of the US initial weekly jobless claim to 371k from 387k a week earlier and also rising of the added jobs to the US private sector to 325k in December while the markets were waiting for adding just 165k jobs adding 204k in November as these data could not add to the markets risk appetite which is still negatively impacted by the EU debt crisis as it has done for the USD as they reduce the pressure on the Fed to support the labor market by adding more liquidity by a QE3 soon.
So, the US equities markets are still down while EURUSD is trading right now below 1.28 and God willing, in the case of declining, the pair can meet supporting levels at 1.2586 which has been the formed bottom on 24th of August 2010 and this can be followed by 1.2151 which is the last low before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebound forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 to 1.4939 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again on 4th of May 2011 after a bubble in the commodities market while the way up can meet resistance at 1.30 psychological level then 1.3075 whereas the pair failed to continue rising this week with an Irish announcement of failing to meet the budget deficit target following Spain which has announced the same while the worries about the demand for the EU long term bonds are undermining the market sentiment with the yield of the Italian 10 years is still around 7% despite the ECB's recent easing measures for lowering the cost of borrowing which could succeed top spur demand for the EU debt ailing countries short term bonds driving their yields down significantly for getting use of these short term injected cheap money by the ECB but it looks that the demand for these countries long term bonds are still in need of greater deal of certainty and stability of the financial situations of these countries while the credit rating downgrading risks are still looming around the EU countries.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 16-01-2012, 10:56 AM   #33
walid
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افتراضي 16/1/2012 - The current market sentiment

The pressure on the single currency continued in the beginning of this week versus the greenback as the fear of downgrading the credit rating of the EU countries has materialized by the end of last week by cutting the credit rating of 9 of the Euro area remembers by S&P giving all of the EU countries a negative outlook but Germany and Slovenia which has been cut by one notch like Slovakia, Malta, Austria and France which was having a triple A rating like Germany, Finland, Netherlander and Luxemburg who had been maintained with no change while Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyrus have been cut by 2 notches as the credit rating downgrading risk was one of the elements which were weighing down on the single currency recently especially after S&P's warning on the 5th of last month by placing the credit ratings of 15 euro zone countries on negative credit watch.
The reactions of the EU Members were mixed. While Germany has decided to get use of this chance to praise the need of financial structure reforms placing the stricter budget rules soon which have been granted in the recent EU summit on the 9th of last month highlighting the need of activating the EU stability mechanism soon too.
but France has lowered the risk of this action which was expected while some other members like Austria has seen that its is not an understood or right action while the EU members are doing the best for solving the EU debt crisis which caused this downgrading by S&P which have seen these efforts are not enough as it has announced after the action.
The EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Ryan has mentioned that this is an action from an agency has made mistakes before and this decision has been made with no right evaluation of the current efforts to stem off the budget deficit of the EU members.
But The EU Commissioner Janker has reacted to this action in an active way to the markets suggesting that this action can encourage the EU countries to increase the amount of the EFSF from its current amount at 500B euros which is worrying the markets as it is not sufficient to bail out countries like Italy which is in need to refund 341b Euros this year paying 54b as interest.
In this same time, the greenback is still getting strength by the improvement of the US economic which has been highlighted again by the end of last week by another better than expected release of Jan UN. Michigan consuming sentiment preliminary reading which has shown rising to 74 while the markets were waiting for just 71.5 after rising to 69.9 from 64.1 in November increasing the speculations of having no QE3 soon supporting the greenback which is taking advantage currently from another side by the falling of the risk apatite again on the increasing worries about the financial market after these downgrades.
God willing, the single currency can face now a new supporting at 1.2586 which has been the formed bottom on 24th of August 2010 and this can be followed by 1.2151 which is the last low before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebound forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 to 1.4939 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again on 4th of May 2011.
While the pair can face a resistance now at 1.2877 which could cap its gains after rebounding from 1.266 on series of successful EU bonds auctions last week specially the Spanish ones driving their yields down which were supported the ECB's recent efforts for lowering the cost of borrowing and providing cheap money in the forms of 3 years loans for the financial markets which praised these actions positive effects specially over the short term as they give time for the financial market lowering the pressure on it and on the single currency in the same time which has become exposed to the risk of failure recently while the EU economy is in need for the low cost money which can spur the investments in the same time and God's will, breaking 1.2877 can be met with another resisting level 1.2954 before the psychological level at 1.30 which can open the way for more resisting levels to come at 1.3098, 1.3283 and 1.3432 before 1.4385 again which contained the pair recent gains forming another lower high to put technical pressure on it.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 18-01-2012, 07:56 PM   #34
walid
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افتراضي 18/1/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

The British pound is still trying hardly to have a place above 1.54 versus the greenback despite the improving of the risk apatite on today news of the possibility of increasing the lending capacity of the IMF to be $1 trillion after Legarde's calling yesterday for boosting the ability to it in the face of the current strong challenges facing the global economy as the pressure on the British pound has continued again today with the rising of UK unemployment in the three months to November by 118k to reach 2.68m which is the highest amount since 1994 pushing up UK ILO unemployment rate of the previous 3 months to November to be 8.4% which is the highest since 1995.
These data highlight the need of more stimulating efforts from BOE after keeping its assets purchasing plan unchanged in the recent 3 meetings after adding 75b Stg in last October to be consumed within 4 months.
The industrial sector is also not in a better stance as the data have shown recently declining of Nov industrial productions by 3.1% y/y while the market was waiting for -2.2% after decreasing by 2.1% in October and also Nov UK manufacturing production which came down by 0.6% y/y which the market was waiting for easing by just 0.1% after falling in October by 1% to assure what has come in the BBC's report last week of failure of the manufacturing sector to grow in the fourth quarter of last year.
From another side, the NIESR has expected growth in the 3 months to December by just 0.1% from 0.3% of the 3 months to November last week and also the British commercial chamber has indicated that the UK economy is looking in need for more than BOE stimulating plans now as the government should encourage the company borrowing too for helping the economy to recover.
The inflation pressure is looking easing in UK in the same time as what has been expected before by BOE as UK CPI has come down again in December to 4.2% from 4.8% in November from 5% in October after rising to 5.2% in September to lower the worries about the inflation upside risks of taking further easing steps putting pressure the British pound from another side.
God willing, the cable is expected to face a resistance at 1.5523, in the case of maintaining a place over 1.4507 and the breaking it can lead to a higher resistance at 1.5667 before 1.5778 while its way down is expected to met by supporting level at 1.5231 whereas it could rebound by the end of last week after S&P credit downgrading of 9 EU countries and getting below it can open the door for facing another supporting level at 1.5123 before the psychological level at 1.50

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 24-01-2012, 11:10 AM   #35
walid
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افتراضي 24/1/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

The single currency has found strength this week to get over 1.30 psychological level versus the greenback again as the markets have shrugged off the delay of reaching an agreement between Greece and its creditors from the private sector as they have done last week by ignoring downgrading the credit rating of 9 of the Euro area remembers and also the EFSF's bonds by S&P giving all of the EU countries a negative outlook driving the yield of the European bonds down further.
But The EU Fin Ministers meeting yesterday has come out yesterday with a new warning to Greece that it shouldn't expect more funds for bailing it even though the country's economy is worsening to push the single currency below 1.30 again.
The single currency has already opened the week below 1.29 versus the greenback on the worries about the results of the negotiations between Greece and IIF on the fear of the possibility of failing again to reach an agreement while its creditors' troika which consist of the EU, IMF and ECB has put this required agreement as a precondition before going on bailing out Greece while Greece is a head of meeting and new maturity of another 14.4b euros next 20th of March.
The market is also waiting now to have a stronger indication about the EU economic performance which is expected to get better later this year as the ECB president Draghi has referred recently fueling the single currency recent rebound with today release of EU PMI Manufacturing index preliminary reading which is expected to show an improvement to 47.5 in January from 46.9 in December and also the preliminary reading of Jan EU PMI Services index which is expected to be 49.1 from 48.8 in December.
God willing, in the case of getting over 1.3051 whereas the single currency has eased back again, it can meet another resistance at 1.3075 before 1.3196 and breaking it can open the way for meeting another resistance at 1.3546 while getting down again can face supporting levels now at 1.2874 which could contain the pair dovish opening this week and breaking it can be followed by meeting another resistance at 1.271 before 1.2631 whereas the pair could rebound to these current levels underpinned more successful EU bonds auctions thanks to the ECB efforts for lowering the cost of borrowing and the optimism which triggered week a week ago by the release of EU ZEW economic sentiment which got better in Jan strongly to -32.5 while the markets were waiting for -48.7 from -54.1 in December and also Germane ZEW economic sentiment which has improved too to -21.5 which the market was waiting for -49.1 from -53.8 in December showing strong elevating of the investors confidence.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 27-01-2012, 06:17 PM   #36
walid
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افتراضي 27/1/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

The gold is still trying to add to its recent gains which pushed it up trading above $1700 psychological level after it could easily get over it following the Fed's decision to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent anticipating that the current economic conditions including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
The decision was not widely expected by the Fed after the market has seen recently improving of the US economic performance especially in the labor market with the falling of the unemployment rate to 8.5% in December which is the lowest since Feb 2009.
The Fed's economic assessment has shown its current expectation of having longer time than the markets were pricing for reaching the economic stability which can warrant a rate hike increasing the probability of having more easing measures with the inflation slowing down and this was one of the reasons which was weighing down on the gold prices as a hedge against inflation but after this assessment, the market can wait now for easing movement by the Fed accompanied with the inflation upside risks easing in US.
As we have seen recently constant falling of US CPI to reach 3% yearly in December from 3.4% in November from 3.5% in October after reaching 3.9% in last September which is its highest level since September 2008 suggesting that there can be deflation pressure again to face the US economy which lead the Fed before to take the QE2 decision in the beginning of November 2010 for fighting it and stimulating the economy putting pressure on the cost of borrowing.
God willing, the gold can face now resistance again $1762 and breaking it can open the way for another resistance at $1802 which can be followed by resisting levels above it at 1827, 1844, 1885 before its highest level at $1920 which has been reached on 6th of last September while the way down can meet supporting levels now at $1648, $1627, $1592 before $1523 which could contain its falling from $1920 driving it up to reach these current levels.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 02-02-2012, 11:40 PM   #37
مشعل عبدالعزيز
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افتراضي

These days ; the gold in high risk trind that cann't be trusted unless the Europe and USA crises resolved... which will not be resolved .... It will be in bad conditions
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قديم 13-02-2012, 01:02 PM   #38
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
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افتراضي 13/2/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

The Single currency has started the week underpinned by the Greek parliament approval of new austerities measures including 22% cutting of the minimum wage and also cutting of 150k public sectors jobs by 2015 with 15k of them to be cut within this year to reduce this year deficit to GDP percentage 1.5% to smooth the way for the EU Fin ministers to an announcement the beginning of the €130B second bailing out plan for Greece later this week when they meet in Brussels to help it to avoid default on 20th of next month, when it is to meet €14.4b due to be paid by God's will.
The single currency could open the week above 1.32 versus the greenback in the beginning of this week after it has closed last week below it on worries about passing these new austerities measures through the Greek parliament amid streets riots against them in Greece.
The Single currency came also under pressure by the end of the week with the ECB's worries about the inflation upside risks easing down significantly suggesting keeping its stimulating efforts for longer period putting pressure on the borrowing costs with no fear of the prices rising.
The ECB has removed from its assessment last Thursday after keeping the interest rate unchanged at 1% its recent repeated mantra saying that the inflation is expected to be above its target for several months ahead replacing it with risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments remain broadly balanced.
On the upside, they relate to higher than assumed increases in indirect taxes and administered prices as well as increases in the commodities prices while the main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area and globally and that will ensure a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in line with the ECB aim of maintaining inflation rates below but close to 2% over the medium term and such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make its contribution to supporting economic growth and jobs creation in the euro area.
The ECB is expected to start offering new 1% yearly 3 years loans to the EU banking sector with easier collateral rules can open door for the small banks too to get use of them which can make the demand for this new round of loans more than last December round which has ended with 489b by lending 523 banks forming another weight on the single currency over the short term and over the long term, if these amples of liquidities have not been used as buffering for capital restructure of these banks not as a given chance for carrying risky assets longer or loading higher riskier assets getting use of the interest rate differential between them and the ECB offer which can lead to strong unreliable exposure for making a quick profit specially if the growth pace continued to be at its current soft rates.
God willing, EURUSD can meet now resistance again at 1.3320 whereas it has failed to continue rising up last Thursday easing back to 1.3154 last Friday and in the case of getting over 1.3320, it can another resistance at 1.3546 before 1.3613 while getting down again from here can be met by supporting levels at 1.3154, 1.3088, 1.3025 before the psychological level at 1.30 which can be followed by another supporting levels at 1.2930, 1.2874 before 1.2631 again whereas the pair could rebound to these current levels underpinned by easing of the markets EU Debt crisis worries on successful EU bonds auctions could drag its yields down sufficiently comparing with last November highs thanks to the ECB efforts for lowering the cost of borrowing.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 27-02-2012, 06:58 PM   #39
walid
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افتراضي 27/2/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

The British pound is still holding most of its last week gains versus the greenback despite the current easing of the risk apatite in the first US trading session of this week which lead it to ease back to these current levels after it could break its recent resistance versus the greenback by the end of last week at 1.5883 reaching 1.5899 despite the contraction of UK Q4 GDP by 0.2% q/q as it was expected growing yearly by 0.7% while it was expected to show yearly growth by 0.8% and also the preliminary slump of UK quarterly total business investment by 5.6% which it was expected to show decreasing by just 0.7% after rising by 1% in the third quarter of last year following strong rising in the second quarter by 11.6% showing the strong need for the current QE plans of BOE.
God Willing, the markets are waiting ahead today for the voting results on the second bailing out plan of Greece in the germane parliament and later this week for the next EU summit meeting which is expected to discuss the issue of rising the EFSF amount under the pressure of the G20 recent meeting demand for trusting in funding the IMF efforts to help Europe to get over its debt problems.
while the cable is expected to face resistance now again at 1.593 which is still containing its previous rising from 1.5231 until now and the breaking of it can lead to facing the psychological level at 1.6 which can be followed by another resistance a 1.6091 before 1.6128 and 1.6164 while the way down can be met by important supporting level at 1.564 which could contain another falling of it last week following the minutes release of the recent MPC meeting on the 9th of this month which have shown voting in favor of increasing BOE's assets purchasing plan by Stg 75 Bln by its members miles and Posen while the other 7 members were preferring increasing by just Stg 50 Bln to not increase the current markets worries about UK economy and the current pressure on it amid the easing of the global economic growth pace and the EU debt crisis negative impacts on the economy which dampened the confidence in the business spending and consuming spending.
But the British pound could succeed to rise again underpinned by the rising of the risk appetite which has been fueled by increasing of the market certainty about the European funding of the Greek debt by the issuance of the second bailing out plan choosing helping Greece over letting it to the defaulting and its consequences and so, the pressure came back on the greenback helping the cable to form a second bottom above 1.564 giving its technical support to rise while breaking 1.564 was supposed to lead to meeting another supporting level at 1.5515 which can be followed by another one at 1.5449 before 1.5319 which breaking it can lead to 1.5231 again.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 06-03-2012, 07:57 PM   #40
walid
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افتراضي 6/3/2012 - The current market sentiment

The pressure on the Aussie dollar has continued into the US session falling below its previous support versus the greenback at 1.0595 which has supported it previously on 23rd of last month and helped it to go up to 1.0854 whereas it has started easing back again to put technical pressure too on The Aussie dollar which came under pressure in the Asian session after the RBA decided too keep the interest rate unchanged again at 4.25% hinting that there can be a chance for a cut to come in the case of further deterioration in the economic performance amid continued easing of the inflation pressures saying that the inflation outlook would provide scope for easier monetary policy expecting CPI inflation to fall further over the next quarter or two and on the underlying terms, it expected the inflation to be around 2½ per cent over the coming one to two years and by abstracting from it the effects of the carbon price, it expected inflation to be from 2% to 3% y/y.
This maintained dovish inflation outlook could weighed on the Aussie dollar which has been actually undermined by the falling back of Feb AIG services performance index to 46.6 into the contracting territory after rising in Jan to 51.6 from 49 in December and 47.7 in November and also by the massive drop of the companies operating profits in the fourth quarter quarterly by 6.5% while the markets were waiting for no change after rising in the third quarter rising by 4.7%.
From another side, the Aussie has found the another pressure coming from the Chinese growth downgrading by china's prime minister Wen in his annual testimony in front of the Chinese Congress to be just 7.5% in 2012 from the previous estimation in 2005 to be 8% putting inflation target at 4% this year which means that the Chinese officials are expecting the growth to dampen the prices while the Chinese inflation rate in January was 4.5%y/y showing rooms for deeper declining to come and So, these expectations have raised the markets speculations of lower demand for the Australian commodities to be this year from China weighing down on the Aussie dollar.
From another side the greenback is still keeping its ascending pace since the Bernanke's semi annual testimony in front of the financial committee of the house last week which has dampen the expectation of having a QE3 soon again pushing up the demand for the US dollar which has been already underpinned by market risk aversion sentiment with the current worries about the possibility of failing of the current Greek offering to its debt private creditors for exchanging it with longer term debt voluntary which can trigger collective action clauses in Greece's bond swap to force them to do which can cause financial turmoil in the CDs market. So, the profit taken option was the favorite option to the investors at these current levels in the equities market before the end of this offering later next Thursday which is carrying new ECB and BOE meetings are need to be watched too by God's will.
God Willing, the Aussie dollar can face now versus the greenback, in the case of falling supporting levels at 1.0524, 1.0426, 1.0351, 1.0230, 1.0191, 1.0143. 1.0042 before parity while rising up again can face now resisting level at 1.0815 before 1.0854 again which breaking it can open the way for 1.1 psychological level before meeting another resistance at 1.1078 whereas it has starting falling on 27th of last July to reach 0.9385 on 4th of last October whereas it has formed its bottom to the these current levels.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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