اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي واحتمال زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطه

[من نجد]

تحياتي ترايدر
من الربع الثالث من 2005 وارباح الشركات تتفوق على التوقعات ، بمعتى أننا مررنا بثلاث ارباع ونحن متماسكون ، اذا اتت ارباح الشركات للربع الثاني حسب لغتهم متأثرة قليلا بمعدلات الفائدة فهذا يعني تناغم واضح بين التوقعات والنمو ، ومزيدا من التأكيدات على قدرة الاقتصاديات على تحمل اسعار الطاقة والفائدة المتصاعدة ، وفي كل الأحوال(شيبان وول ستريت) يقولون السوق فوق منهم ورن بوفت والوعد 30 ديسمبر2006

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Fed Brief About this page | Print version

In depth analysis of Federal Reserve Policy. Archive



Updated: 31-May-06 15:28 ET New in the Research Section: FOMC

Fed Minutes Inconclusive but Consistent with June Hike


The May FOMC minutes didn't offer much insight on the June 29 policy direction. They noted that "members were uncertain about how much, if any, further tightening would be needed after today's action". However, if inflation worsened -- as the back to back 0.3% gains in core inflation suggest -- some further policy firming could be required. With a full month of data ahead of the month-end decision the data-dependent conclusion is far from clear but sides with a June rate hike.

The Committee agreed to emphasize that "the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information." Members debated the appropriate characterization of inflation expectations in the statement. The apparent pickup core inflation and longer-term expectations, while worrisome, was relatively small. They remained within the range seen over the past couple of years, and the increase could well reverse before long. Accordingly, it appeared appropriate to characterize inflation expectations again as "contained."

The funds futures market clung to the idea that the Fed would respond to the recent inflation data with further policy firming. Obviously, an offset in the core inflation data released on June 14 carries the potential to reverse the policy expectations. Near the close the July contract priced in 74% probability for a quarter percent hike to a 5.25% policy rate at month end. The implied rates peak at November's 5.32% as the market begins to price in the potential for another hike after June 29.


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هناك احتمال ضعيف لرفع نسبة الفائدة لاجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي في اجتماعة القادم في 29-6-2006م الا في حالة واحده ان تسفر التقارير الاقتصادية عن نسبة في التضخم اكثر من 0.3% .
وقد نرى ارتفاع في معدل سعر الفائدة ولكن بعد الاجتماع القادم .


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يجب استغلال ارتفاع الاسواق وعدم النظر الى الا في التقارير الرسمية التي تصدر من اصحاب قرار الاقتصاد الامريكي فهي المحرك الوحيد لاتجاه الاسواق .
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اهلين من نجد
بصراحه وارن بوفت عقليه استثمارية تستحق كل الاحترام
وانت تستحق كل التقدير
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[ترايدر]

Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation
Monday June 5, 2:46 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation, Even Though Economic Growth Is Moderating


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Even though the once barreling U.S. economy is now slowing down, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday called recent increases in inflation unwelcome and pledged to make sure surging energy prices don't make things worse.
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In deciding the Federal Reserve's next rate move in late June, Bernanke said the inflation outlook "will receive particular scrutiny." Fed policy-makers "will be vigilant" to ensure that the recent pattern of higher readings in core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, "is not sustained," he said in remarks prepared for an international monetary conference here.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials slid 160 points as Bernanke's fresh warnings on inflation rattled investors.

Bernanke offered his most extensive assessment of current economic conditions and the challenges facing Fed policy-makers.

"With the economy now evidently in a period of transition, monetary policy must be conducted with great care and with close attention to the evolution of the economic outlook," Bernanke said. He stressed anew that future rate decisions will rely heavily on what economic barometers say about inflation and business activity.

So far this year, inflation at the consumer level has been elevated in large part by rising energy prices, Bernanke said.

As measured by the Consumer Price Index, "core" inflation -- which excludes food and energy prices -- rose at an annual rate of 3.2 percent over the last three months and 2.8 percent over the past six months. "These are unwelcome developments," he said.

Fed policy-makers pay close attention to "core" inflation figures to get a better sense of how prices of lots of other goods and services are behaving. As these core measures have marched higher, economists have worried that surging energy prices are feeding into higher price tags for more and more items.

Oil prices, which hit a record high of more than $75 a barrel, are hovering around $73 a barrel. Gasoline prices have climbed, topping $3 a gallon in some areas.

To combat inflation, Fed policy-makers have boosted interest rates 16 times since June 2004. The Fed, which meets next on 28-29, has said that coming rate decisions will rely heavily on how barometers on economic activity and inflation look.

Some economists believe the Fed will raise rates again at that time to blunt inflation. Others, however, think the Fed will leave rates alone, taking a pause in its two-year rate-raising campaign to assess economic conditions.

The economy, which grew at a brisk 5.3 percent pace in the opening quarter of this year, is slowing to a more moderate pace, Bernanke said. Higher energy prices are playing a role by making some consumers more cautious in their spending. Another factor is a cooling housing market, he said.

"The anticipated moderation of economic growth seems now to be under way," he declared.

Private economists believe economic growth in the April-to-June quarter will probably clock in around a 2.5 percent pace or slightly better.

Although consumers, who account for two-thirds of all economic activity, are showing signs of moderating their buying appetite, businesses on the other hand are spending and investing at a robust clip, Bernanke noted.

He also pointed out that the slower job creation seen in recent months and an edging up in filings for unemployment benefits also are "consistent with the softening in the pace of overall economic activity that seems to be under way."

Employers added just 75,000 jobs in May, the fewest in seven months. Job gains for March and April turned out to be lower than previously thought.

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رئيس المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي بن برنانكي مازال قلق بشأن التصخم بالرغم من النمو المعتدل للاقتصاد الامريكي كما اشار بانه في حالة استمرار التضخم الى حين الاجتماع القادم في واخر شهر June فانه من المرجح ان يتم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا .
هناك قلق بشأن اسعار الطاقة بالاضافة الى الارقام الاقتصادية في ظل تزايد حجم التضخم التي يعاني منها الاقتصاد الامريكي .
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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation
Monday June 5, 2:46 pm ET By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation, Even Though Economic Growth Is Moderating


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Even though the once barreling U.S. economy is now slowing down, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday called recent increases in inflation unwelcome and pledged to make sure surging energy prices don't make things worse.
ADVERTISEMENT


In deciding the Federal Reserve's next rate move in late June, Bernanke said the inflation outlook "will receive particular scrutiny." Fed policy-makers "will be vigilant" to ensure that the recent pattern of higher readings in core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, "is not sustained," he said in remarks prepared for an international monetary conference here.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials slid 160 points as Bernanke's fresh warnings on inflation rattled investors.

Bernanke offered his most extensive assessment of current economic conditions and the challenges facing Fed policy-makers.

"With the economy now evidently in a period of transition, monetary policy must be conducted with great care and with close attention to the evolution of the economic outlook," Bernanke said. He stressed anew that future rate decisions will rely heavily on what economic barometers say about inflation and business activity.

So far this year, inflation at the consumer level has been elevated in large part by rising energy prices, Bernanke said.

As measured by the Consumer Price Index, "core" inflation -- which excludes food and energy prices -- rose at an annual rate of 3.2 percent over the last three months and 2.8 percent over the past six months. "These are unwelcome developments," he said.

Fed policy-makers pay close attention to "core" inflation figures to get a better sense of how prices of lots of other goods and services are behaving. As these core measures have marched higher, economists have worried that surging energy prices are feeding into higher price tags for more and more items.

Oil prices, which hit a record high of more than $75 a barrel, are hovering around $73 a barrel. Gasoline prices have climbed, topping $3 a gallon in some areas.

To combat inflation, Fed policy-makers have boosted interest rates 16 times since June 2004. The Fed, which meets next on 28-29, has said that coming rate decisions will rely heavily on how barometers on economic activity and inflation look.

Some economists believe the Fed will raise rates again at that time to blunt inflation. Others, however, think the Fed will leave rates alone, taking a pause in its two-year rate-raising campaign to assess economic conditions.

The economy, which grew at a brisk 5.3 percent pace in the opening quarter of this year, is slowing to a more moderate pace, Bernanke said. Higher energy prices are playing a role by making some consumers more cautious in their spending. Another factor is a cooling housing market, he said.

"The anticipated moderation of economic growth seems now to be under way," he declared.

Private economists believe economic growth in the April-to-June quarter will probably clock in around a 2.5 percent pace or slightly better.

Although consumers, who account for two-thirds of all economic activity, are showing signs of moderating their buying appetite, businesses on the other hand are spending and investing at a robust clip, Bernanke noted.

He also pointed out that the slower job creation seen in recent months and an edging up in filings for unemployment benefits also are "consistent with the softening in the pace of overall economic activity that seems to be under way."

Employers added just 75,000 jobs in May, the fewest in seven months. Job gains for March and April turned out to be lower than previously thought.

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رئيس المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي بن برنانكي مازال قلق بشأن التصخم بالرغم من النمو المعتدل للاقتصاد الامريكي كما اشار بانه في حالة استمرار التضخم الى حين الاجتماع القادم في واخر شهر June فانه من المرجح ان يتم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا الاجتماع .
هناك قلق بشأن اسعار الطاقة بالاضافة الى الارقام الاقتصادية في ظل تزايد حجم التضخم التي يعاني منها الاقتصاد الامريكي .
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[هامور البلاد]

مشرفنا ترايدر خلال ثلاث سنوات كم مره رفعت الفائده على الدولار

أو بالأصح كم كانت في عام 2001 إلى الآن

[هامور البلاد]

ما صار لهم شهر رافعين الفائده

[ترايدر]

اهلين اخي الكريم هامور البلاد

من عام 2001الى الان منتصف عام 2006م ارتفعت 16 مره بواقع ربع نقطه

وكانت في عام 2001
1%


طبعاً كل شئ وارد في حالة قياس التضخم وفق المعايير الخاصة بالتقارير الاقتصادية ولكن المحلليين يستبعدون ان يكون هناك رفع لمعدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم .
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ترايدر

[هامور البلاد]

في 3 يناير 2001 خفض سعر الفائدة على الدولار بمقدار 0.5% ليصبح 6%
أيااام رئيس البنك الفيدرالي " آلان جرينسبان"

مما يعني أنه كان 6% في الشهر الأول من السنه هل يعني انه قام بتخفيض النسبه من 6% إلى 1%
خلال أشهر
أرجو التوضيح وشكراً لك مره أخرى

[ترايدر]

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة ترايدر

AP
Fed Boosts Key Interest Rate for 15th Time
Tuesday March 28, 3:10 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Fed Boosts Key Interest Rate to Highest in Five Years; Officials Leave Door Open for More Hikes


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Tuesday boosted a key interest rate to the highest level in five years as new Chairman Ben Bernanke followed the Alan Greenspan inflation-fighting formula.
The action, the 15th consecutive quarter-point move, left the federal funds rate at 4.75 percent, its highest level since April 2001.
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Fed officials, who were holding their first interest rate meeting under Bernanke, left the door open for further rate increases although private economists believe only one or two more rate hikes are likely.

The quarter-point rate hike had been widely expected. Bernanke has emphasized since being chosen by President Bush that he planned to continue Greenspan's approach toward setting interest rates. That approach was characterized by baby steps aimed at giving markets and investors plenty of time to adjust.

"Mr. Bernanke has chosen incrementalism over radical change in his first meeting," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a consulting firm.

"There is no fundamental change from Mr. Greenspan," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, another firm.

Jones said the only small difference was in an expanded paragraph that went into greater detail about the Fed's views on how the economy is performing.

The Fed said economic growth had "rebounded strongly" and the run-up in the price of energy and other commodities had had only a "modest effect on core inflation."

Jones predicted the Fed would raise rates one more time to 5 percent and then stop.

On Wall Street, investors pushed stocks lower following the Fed announcement, expressing disappointment that the central bank did not send a stronger signal that the rate hikes would be ending soon.

The Fed's latest move will mean higher interest rates for both consumers and businesses. KeyCorp was the first bank to announce it was raising its prime lending rate by a similar quarter-point to 7.75 percent. The prime is the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans.

In its statement, the Fed sounded at an upbeat note about the current business climate, saying "economic growth has rebounded strongly in the current quarter but appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace."

The statement retained language used last time that "some further policy firming may be needed." That was seen by financial markets as a signal that further rate hikes could occur.

When the central bank began tightening credit conditions in June 2004, the prime rate stood at 4 percent and so did the federal funds rate, both the lowest levels since the late 1950s when Dwight D. Eisenhower was president.

Those unusually low levels were reached as the central bank beginning in 2001 worked to protect the economy from the blows dealt by a bursting stock market bubble, the 2001 recession, terrorist attacks and a prolonged period of job losses even after the economy began to recover in November of that year.

The Fed's goal has been to reach a point where interest rates are neither stimulating nor depressing economic growth.

Many analysts believe the Fed is very close to that level but may feel the need to push the funds rate up one more time to 5 percent from moving to the sidelines for the rest of the year.

However, other analysts who are more worried about inflation pressures say the Fed may feel the need to boost rates not only at the next meeting on May 10 but also at perhaps two more meetings after that, leaving the funds rate at 5.5 percent.

Greenspan retired after 18 1/2 years at the Fed. Bernanke was nominated by Bush to succeed him. Bernanke had been an economics professor at Princeton specializing in monetary policy before serving as a Fed board member from 2002 to 2003 when Bush tapped him to be chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.



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تم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة بواقع ربع نقطه لتصل الى 4.75 % ويعتبر الارتفاع الخامس عشر منذ عام 2001م
كما المح رئيس المصرف الفدرالي ان قد تكون امامنا زياده لمره او مرتين بواقع ربع نقطه وانه ماضي في سياسه جرينسبان الرئيس السابق للمصرف الفدرالي للحد من التضخم كما ان ثقه الرئيس بوش فيه تقتضي الاسراع في حل المشاكل الاقتصادية التي قد تعترض الاقتصاد الامريكي الا ان المفيد في هذا الاجتماع انه صرح بان الاقتصاد الامريكي عاد الى حالة الطبيعية وبقوه رغم تأثير اسعار الطاقة والسلع التي اثرت بشكل بسيط على التضخم .
كما المح ان قد تصل معدل سعر الفائدة الى 5 % وقد تتوقف مما اثر على اداء المستثمرين بشكل عام كونه لم يعطي اشارة قويه الى توقف سعر الفائدة بشكل نهائي كما انه ركز الى ان الفقاعة التي صاحبت احداث الحادي عشر من سبتمر من عام 2001م لن تكرر حفاظا على نمو الاقتصاد الامريكي بشكل اسرع خلال هذا الربع كونه عاد بقوه الى حالته الطبيعه ويتوقع ان يتسارع بشكل اكبر خلال هذا الربع مع الحد على التضخم بشكل متوازن .
كما توقع محللون ان تكون الزيادة القادمه بربع نقطه في 10 مايو القادم وقد تصل في نهاية العام الى 5.5% .
ويشعر بعض المحلليين بالقلق ازاء ضغوط التضخم .
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بقيه التقرير عباره عن سيرته الذاتيه بشكل مختصر متخصص في السياسة النقديه عمل في لجنة المصرف الفدرالي من عام 2002-2003 وبعدها تم تعيينه كبير الاقتصاديين في البيت الابيض من قبل بوش وبعد احالة جرينسبان الى التقاعد تم تعيينه خلفه عنه .
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اهلين اخي الكريم هامور البلاد

في ثاني رد في الموضوع الاقتباس بعاليه .
تقرير من New - Yahoo! Finance
نص وتاريخ ووقت التاريخ كما هو بعاليه كان معدل سعر الفائدة 4.5% وفي حالة رفع ربع نقطه ستصل الى 4.75% وهو الارتفاع الخامس عشر على التوالي من شهر ابريل عام 2001م حسب التقرير بعاليه (اللون الاحمر) .
وفي 10ماي ارتفع معدل سعر الفائدة بواقع ربع نقطه لتصل الى 5% ويعتبر الارتفاع السادس عشر على التوالي حسب التقرير المرفق مع الشارت بعاليه .

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هذا تقرير من بريفنق يذكر بما نصه انه في حالة ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم في 28-29/6/2006م يعتبر السابع عشر على التوالي (اللون الاحمر).
وجميع التقارير التي يعتمد عليها ترايدر هي اما من بريفنق او New - Yahoo! Finance باعتبارهما افضل مصادر الاخبار عن السوق الامريكي على الاطلاق .

نص التقرير
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Updated: 10-May-06 16:56 ET

Fed's Flexibility for June Policy Direction

The Fed's policy making committee -- the FOMC -- came through with the 25 bp hike in the overnight policy rate expected. The federal funds policy rate is now targeted at 5% as the discount rate has been set higher at 6%.

The wording of the policy statement left the door wide open for the FOMC to either pull the policy trigger for a 17th consecutive time at the June 28-29 FOMC meeting or pause to assess the effects on the economy. Given the strength of the economy Briefing.com assumes that rate hike(s) would return after a pause.
The policy statement noted Fed expectations for growth to moderate given the cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices. However, the Fed remains keenly aware of the inflation risks. The outlook stated 'that some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks but emphasizes that the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information'.

The translation is simply that the policy makers don't have a clear pre-disposition for the meeting 7 weeks away and will depend on the economic releases in making that June 29 policy decision. The minutes from the meeting released May 31 may provide the substance of any debate among the FOMC members just as the minutes from the March meeting noted that 'most members thought that the end of the tightening process was likely to be near as some expressed concerns about the dangers of tightening too much...'

Fed Chairman Bernanke has already been clear that forward policy direction is dependent on the economic data as a pause in the tightening may only interrupt the rate hikes rather than end them.

Historically, Fed tightening cycles have ended when the policy rate reached levels of 6% or higher which stalled the economy. Given the current conditions of contained core inflation, the Fed doesn't want to make the mistake of going too far. From here the policy outlook depends chiefly on core inflation growth and the extent of resource utilization, energy and commodity prices which help drive inflation

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اخي الكريم

المرفق بعاليه نص تقارير بالساعة واليوم والشهر والسنه .

وعملية ارتفاع وانخفاض معدل سعر الفائدة شئ وارد حسب سياسية المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي ونظرته تجاه التضخم المصاحب للاقتصاد الامريكي .
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.

[هامور البلاد]

لا أعلم عن موضوع سعر الفائده شيء ولكن بالصدفه قرأت مقال لأحد الإقتصاديين العرب وبين ذلك

قد تكون مصادرك أدق بحكم خبرتك ماشاء الله

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