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العودة   منتديات تداول > الادارة والاقتصاد > مـــنــــتــــــدى السلع و العملات والنفط



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قديم 29-06-2011, 08:45 PM   #1
walid
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افتراضي 29/6/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

The gains of the US stocks could continue today after the Greek parliament had passed the planned austerities measures by the Greek government which had the acceptance of EU and IMF for giving Greece the second part valued 12 billions euros from their planned 110 billions euros nearly a year ago for supporting it.
This required step by the lenders was very important for restoring back confidence in the markets which have suffered by the worries about the Greek debt recently as it is to help Greece to avert default over the short term because of the lenders insistence on having an agreement in the Greek parliament on these required measures in the forms of cutting the governmental spending, hiking the taxes and going forward in privatization public assets in Greece by lending it more funds.
This acceptance could calm down the concerns about other European ailing economies by debt in the euro area such as Ireland and Portugal which required the IMF and the EU financing assistance too.
The Single currency which has been possessed by the developments of this crisis recently could rise over 1.44 versus the greenback after this agreement announcement which has been expected since last week ability of the Greek government to gain confidence by 155 majority to 143 and this 155 majority has been repeated again today but this time against just 138
while the greenback was under pressure by improving of the markets risk appetite with optimism of this new approving today which has come accompanied with surprising rebound of US pending home sales figure of May rising by 8.2% while the markets were waiting for just 2.4% after initial collapse in April by 11.6% has been revised down too to 11.3% reducing the market worries about the US housing market.
God Willing, The single currency is expected to face resisting levels now at 1.4495, 1.455, 1.4651 then 1.4695 whereas it has formed its recent lower high below 1.4939 which exposed it to be under technical pressure to fall before finding a bottom at 1.4072 and in the case of getting down again from here, it can meet supporting levels at 1.4238 then 1.4102 which is forming now the pair higher low above 1.4072 over the short term supporting the pair currently to get over 1.441

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 30-06-2011, 07:55 PM   #2
walid
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افتراضي 30/6/2011 - The current market sentiment

The Canadian dollar could add to its gains versus the greenback underpinned by higher than expected Canadian CPI of May rising to 3.7% y/y while the markets were waiting for 3.3% as the same at April and also the core figure excluding the food and energy has come up to 1.8% yearly from 1.6% in April while it was expected to get down to 1.5% yearly following rising of April Canadian raw materials prices index too by 6.8% yearly from 5.8% to show that there is growing pricing power in Canada currently can increase the pressure on the BOC to hike the interest again after keeping it unchanged at 1% since 8th September 2010 following the ECB without waiting for the Fed
Specially, as these growing inflation upside risks come accompanied with improving of the Canadian economic performance as we have seen recently the Canadian capacity utilization of the first quarter of this year surging to 79% from 76.8% in the last quarter of 2010 and this figure came also after Ivey PMI of May which rose significantly to 69.1 from 57.7 while the median forecast was referring to 60 to show strong improving of the Canadian industrial performance with declining of the Canadian unemployment rate to 7.4% in May from 7.6% in April.
The Canadian dollar has found also support versus the greenback which has been hit in the recent few days by improving of the markets risk appetite because of the markets optimism about solving the Greek debt problems in the short term with exposing it to default after the Greek government could gain confidence by 155 majority to 143 and this 155 majority has been repeated again yesterday on its austerities measures but this time against just 138 to avert default over the short term because of the lenders insistence on having an agreement in the Greek parliament on these required measures in the forms of cutting the governmental spending, hiking the taxes and going forward in privatization public assets in Greece by giving it the second part valued 12 billions euros from the EU and the IMF planned 110 billions euros package which has been prepared nearly a year ago for supporting it reducing its exposure to the bonds markets directly.
This improving of the investors' risks could also help the oil prices to rebound supporting back the Canadian dollar as a commodities currency after it had been under pressure by the EIA announcement of releasing 60 million oil barrels next month to offset the shortage by the riots in Libya.
That's beside significant decreasing of US oil inventories to the week ending on 24th of June by 4.4 m barrels from shortage by 1.5 m a week earlier while the markets were waiting for decreasing by just 1.7 and also its gasoline inventories which looked negatively impacted by the summer driving season demand has got down by 1.4 m barrels while the market was waiting for rising by 0.77 after decreasing a week earlier by 1.5 m barrels to strengthen the oil prices and the Canadian dollar which dragged down the greenback from 0.991 to be traded below 0.97 reaching 0.9623 breaking 09669 and 0.964 supporting levels and by God's will, further downward pressure on this pair can lead to test 0.9512 again then 0.9444 which has been reached on the second of last May by the turmoil which has hit the commodities markets after the labor holidays and caused strong profit taken waves by the investors while its next resistance is now at 0.991 and the breaking of it can lead to the parity level which can be followed by another resistance at 1.006 then 1.0379 over a longer range.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 06-07-2011, 08:26 AM   #3
walid
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افتراضي 6/7/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

Downgrading the credit rating of Portugal by Moody's 4 notches to Ba2 from B with a negative outlook could contain the market sentiment putting pressure on the single currency following warning from S&P credit rating agency about the direction of France to help Greece by supporting its private sector for reinvesting its holding of short term debts of Greece to longer periods ones in what can be turning around a direct announcement of restructuring the Greece's debt by France which will be considered a default by the credit rating agencies which can put pressure again on the single currency in the coming period.
The single currency is trading now at 1.445 After it could reach 1.4576 versus the greenback in the beginning of the week on the European Fin ministers' approving of giving Greece the second part valued 12 billions euros of the EU and the IMF planned 110 billions euros package which has been prepared nearly a year ago for supporting it reducing its exposure to the bonds markets directly.
The single currency has started to rise from 1.4102 versus the greenback recently taking advantage from the Greek government ability to gain the confidence of the Greek parliament by 155 majority to 143 as it has been interpreted into another succeeding on approving of its austerity plans and that's what has been done by this same majority to avert default over the short term because of the lenders insistence on having an agreement in the Greek parliament on these required measures in the forms of cutting the governmental spending, hiking the taxes and going forward in privatization public assets in Greece by giving Greece more funds.
God Willing, The single currency is expected to face resisting levels versus the greenback now at 1.4576 then 1.4695 whereas it has formed its recent lower high below 1.4939 which is the next resisting level and the pair higher high and these double tops have put the pair under technical pressure to fall before finding a bottom at 1.4072 and in the case of getting down further from here, it can meet supporting levels at 1.4326, 1.4238 then 1.4102 which has formed the pair higher bottom above 1.4072 which helped the pair to rebound again breaking 1.441 to where we are trading now.
The markets will be waiting tomorrow for the ECB's interest rate decision which is expected to be hiking the interest by another 0.25% to be 1.5% as Trichet has come back saying in the press conference following 9th June meeting that strong vigilance is warranted from saying after May meeting which always refers to a coming hiking decision instead of saying that the ECB is very closely watching the prices which always hints to the markets that there is no close rate hike decision. So, it is important also to wait for Trichet's language in the press conference following the ECB meeting to know more about the single currency interest rate outlook and the current ECB's economic assessment of the inflation upside risks and also the growth of the euro area which is expected to show today rising by 2.5% yearly in the first quarter of this year.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 12-07-2011, 05:31 PM   #4
walid
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افتراضي 12/7/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

The sterling came under further pressure today following the release of June UK CPI which decreased to 4.2% yearly while the markets were waiting for 4.5% like April and May. The cable has reached today 1.578 after breaking 1.5911 yesterday and falling further can be met by supporting level at 1.5744 and breaking below it can lead to test 1.5342 whereas it could form its bottom to 1.6744 while going up from here now can be met by resistance at 1.614 can be followed by another resistance at 1.6261
From anther side, the greenback could add to its gains underpinned by falling of the markets risk appetite weighing down on the equities markets by worries about the US labor market and growing concerns about the Italian financial situation containing the market sentiment while Greece is still facing default despite its governmental succeeding in having the parliament confidence and approving on its new austerity measures which forced the single currency to fall below 1.4 reaching 1.3837 today before finding support by the announcement of having an EU summit this Friday and after succeeding of Greek bond auction and also another Italian bonds auction but it was expensive on the current increasing worries about Italian's debt which came down also with approving of the opposing middle left party in Italy of taking austerity measures for reducing the budget deficit helping the single currency again rebound getting over 1.4 versus the greenback which has come under pressure by bigger than expected trade balance deficit release of May reaching $50.2B from 43.6 while the market was waiting for just 44B.
God willing the single currency next supporting level versus the greenback is at 1.3837 after breaking below 1.3965 and 1.3854 supporting levels this week and falling further can be met by further supporting levels at 1.3523 then 1.3424 while rising from here can face resistance at 1.4077, 1.4224 and 1.4337
The markets are waiting ahead today for the release of the Fed's recent meeting minutes which are waited to show the markets why the Fed has not decided to inject more funds and also the markets want to know more from these minutes about the current Fed's appreciation of the growing inflation pressure in US and whether or not it was the reason behind this decision.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 15-07-2011, 10:00 AM   #5
walid
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افتراضي 15/7/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

The US equities Markets came back under pressure after Bernanke's try to redirect the markets which cheered by the existing possibility of supporting the US economy by another quantitive easing plan as he said that can be on circumstances we do not face currently and he has added clearly that the fed is not ready to take such a step currently in his second day of hit semiannual testimony in front of the financial services committee on the house after saying the first day that everything should be on the table.
The greenback could be supported after these comments which hurt the risk apatite which has been pressure by another new warning of downgrading the US credit rating maintaining its negative outlook which has changed from stable in last April and this new warning came following Moody's warning of downgrading the US credit rating to contain the markets sentiment highlighting the risk of not raising the $14.29 trillion ceiling of US debt which has been already reached on 16th of May as what has been announced by the Timothy Geithner.
In this same time, china which has more than a trillion of US debt has announced its concerning too asking for raising up this limit while this request is still not approved by majority of the republicans of the house who are asking for cutting the governmental spending by at least 2 trillions before accepting this request which can be the market worrying issue in the coming future with the worries about the debt rising up globally weighing down on the business sentiment which can find difficulty in have new support from the Fed which can find difficulty too in buying more bonds for stimulating the growth which has actually shown signs of weakness recently and weak performance of the labor market and cutting the governmental spending currently will have a direct negative impact on the US GDP which has been already downgraded by the Fed following its recent meeting to be from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y in 2011 and to be from 3.3% to 3.7% in 2012
And from another side, the prices upside risks can be another obstacle in the face of any new easing action by the Fed with the US CPI rising in a continuous way in the recent moths from worrying about the deflation in last November supporting the Fed to take it's Q2 plan with CPI rising by just 1.1% yearly but this rising has started to speed up by 1.5% in December, 1.6% in January, 2.1% February, 2.7% in March, 3.2% in April and 3.6% in May while we are waiting it to show again today 3.6% in June.
So, It looks now with this current inflation pressure that solving a debt crisis can be harder than solving the credit crisis which is one of the important reasons of the debt crisis which is facing Euro zone strongly currently and can face also US which has adopted strong easing stance for keeping the economy up in the most possible fast way but this was on the account of its financial position again by the way of spending and buying as much as you can hurting the US balance sheet for bailing out too big financial institutions of it in order to driving up the markets confidence and getting out of the recession and now with the worries about the economic growth increases again, the debt issue has risen up containing the markets sentiment which can lead the US economy to stagflation risks which can cap the Fed from taking new decision as what has been done in UK capping BOE from taking new decision since November 2009.
The gold surely could get use of these worries about the debt problems which included the Italian financial position this week too and as a strong options to the investors' who are looking for a hedge against market risks and inflation too, it could get over its previous high at 1574 reaching 1593 yesterday supported also by rising of the Chinese CPI to 6.2% y/y from 5.5% while the market was waiting for 6.2% last Saturday to start this week strongly underpinned and by God's will, further rising up from here can be met by resistance now at 1593$ again, while there can be another expected resistance at 1600$ per ounce psychological level while getting down from here can be meet now supporting levels at 1540$, 1523$, 1509$, 1493$ then 1477$ which has been reached under the pressure of not giving hints about new Fed's Q3 plan following its recent meeting on 22nd June.
God willing, we will be waiting today for the release of the stress tests results of 91 European banks and if we are to have weak results this can add more gains to the gold despite of the discrepancies about the efficiency of them since the falling of succeeding Irish banks of these tests on 2010 few months after them!

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 19-07-2011, 02:37 PM   #6
walid
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افتراضي 19/7/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

The markets are waiting for having more information about the US housing market today with the release of US housing starts of June which are expected to be 0.58M in June from 0.56 in May and also US building permits which are expected to be 0.61M in June from .612 in May while the equities markets seem to be rebounding this morning after strong selling in the recent days because of the markets growing worries about the US debt following warning of downgrading the US credit rating by S&P and Moody's last week without exceeding the $14.29 trillions ceiling of US debt which has been already reached on 16th of last May as what has been announced by the Timothy Geithner.
These warning could contain the market sentiment with no reached deal yet between Obama and the majority of US Congress republic party senators who are asking for cutting the governmental spending by at least 2 trillions before accepting this request which can be the market worrying issue in the coming future with the worries about the debt rising up globally containing the markets sentiment weighing down on the business sentiment, while the US economy is easing currently with no expected new easing support from the Fed soon as Bernenke has tried to hint in the second day of his semiannual testimony in front of the financial services committee of the house that the Fed isn't ready for injecting new funds in the form of QE3 and also the economy has not reached these bad conditions which can lead the Fed to take such an action which its possibility has grown to the markets after his saying that everything should be on the table in the first day of this testimony.
From another side, the Fed can find it difficult too in buying more bonds for stimulating the growth at these bad debt conditions which argue decreasing the US debt soon and taking austerities measures for maintaining its financial position and this has been seen in the Fed's recent statement after its meeting on 22nd of last month that there should be a plan over the long term for decreasing this debt lowering its forecast of US GDP to be from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y in 2011 and to be from 3.3% to 3.7% in 2012.
That's beside the prices upside risks can be another obstacle in the face of any new easing action by the Fed with the US CPI rising in a continuous way in the recent moths from worrying about the deflation in last November supporting the Fed to take it's Q2 plan with CPI rising by just 1.1% yearly but this rising has started to speed up by 1.5% in December, 1.6% in January, 2.1% February, 2.7% in March, 3.2% in April and 3.6% in May and in June as we have seen by the end of last week with no easing back until now despite the easing of the growth which can lead to stagflation risks capping the Fed from taking new decision as what has been done in UK since capping BOE from taking new decision since 5th November 2009 when it raised its buying assets plan to 200b Stg keeping the interest rate unchanged since 5th Feb 2009.
While the gold is still shining rising above 1600$ per ounce supported by the worries about the US treasuries specially and the global bonds broadly with the debt crisis in EU too which are making the gold much more attractive to the investors who are looking for a safer haven stance and also as a hedge against inflation, the gold could find strong buying since the release of the Chinese CPI of June which rose strongly to 6.4% y/y from 5.5% while the market was waiting for 6.2%.
By God's will, the gold next supporting levels are now at 1575. 1540$, 1523$, 1509$, 1493$ then 1477$ which has been reached under the pressure of not giving hints about new Fed's Q3 plan following its recent meeting on 22nd June.
God willing, the markets will be waiting also today for BOC interest rate decision and it is widely expected to decide to keep the interest rate unchanged again at 1% as it has since September of last year as the US growth slowdown can effect negatively as well on the Canadian economy which depend of the US demand of commodities from it despite the recent signs from Canada showing good economic performance with inflationary pressure as we have seen recently the Canadian capacity utilization of the first quarter of this year surging to 79% from 76.8% in the last quarter of 2010 and also Ivey PMI of June which was expected to be 62.5 but it came at 68.2 from significant rising in may to 69.1 from 57.7 in April and also the Canadian non-farm payroll of June which came at 28.4k from 22.3k in May while the market were waiting for easing back to 11.3k that's beside rising of the prices as we have seen May Canadian CPI rising to 3.7% y/y while the markets were waiting for 3.3% as the same at April and we are waiting for this figure by this weekend to be 3.5% in June.
However the Canadian dollar is still finding support from being a good safe haven option during these worries about debt and the tensions in Libya which are supporting the oil prices too and God willing, further falling of the US dollar versus the Canadian dollar can be met now by supporting levels at 0.9512 then 0.9444 which the pair has ascended from it following the turmoil which hit the commodities markets after the labor holidays in the beginning of May helping the pair to reach 0.991 before getting back down forming a lower high at 0.9773 which is forming the pair nearest important resistance currently.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 25-07-2011, 07:50 PM   #7
walid
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افتراضي 25/7/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

The greenback has started the week under pressure on no reached deal between the current democratic ruling party and the republicans for hiking the taxes until now can open the door for succeeding voting for raising the current debt working $14.29B limit which has been reached in the middle of last May while the markets are waiting anxiously for the way the US Government to pay its financial obligations in the second of next month and it looks that till we reach this time the markets sentiment will be possessed by the development of this ascending problem in US eyeing on next Friday release of US Q2 GDP which is expected to get down to 1.6% y/y from 1.9% in the first quarter of this year.
The Swiss Frank got use of this negative business spending sentiment and continued its pressure on the US dollar despite the recent weaker than expected release of Swiss trade balance of June which came at 1745M Frank while the market were waiting for 2.7B from 3.03B in May and also the big falling of July ZEW expectations index to the worst since Jan 2009 to -58.9 from -24.3 in June which refer to weaker confidence in the Swiss economic growth.
USDCHF has fallen below its recent supporting level at 0.8076 reaching 0.8019 under technical pressure too from being below its trend line resistance which is extended from 0.9338 to 0.8945 and over a longer range from being below the trend line resistance extension from 1.1729 to 0.9773 and God willing, the next expected supporting level can be at the psychological level at 0.8 while the its next resistance can be at 0.8276 , 0.8551 then 0.8945 again.
The demand for gold has increased too getting use of this dovish sentiment which is weighing down on the US Treasuries appeal as a safe haven too to make a new high reaching $1623 per ounce while its next supporting levels are expected to be at 1575. 1540$, 1523$, 1509$, 1493$ then 1477$ which has been reached under the pressure of not giving hints about new Fed's Q3 plan following its recent meeting on 22nd June.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 02-08-2011, 07:32 PM   #8
walid
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افتراضي 2/8/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

The risk aversion sentiment has accelerated containing the markets following the falling of June personal income to 0.1% monthly revising down the figure of May to 0.2% from 0.3% while it was expected to be 0.3% and also monthly falling of US personal consumption expenditure by 0.2% while it was expected to rise by 0.2% in June with down revision of the figure of May from 0.2% to 0.1% in July.
These new dovish data about the US economy has supported the demand for the gold to reach a new all times high at 1641 per ounce recovering the falling to $1606 because of the reached deal between the republican party and the democratic party of cutting the US governmental spending by $2.1 trillions over the next 10 years for having an agreement for raising the US debt ceiling avoiding defaulting but the rising worries about the US growth outlook have come back supporting the gold following the falling of July US ISM manufacturing index to 50.9 while it was expected to be down to just 55.1 after rising in June to 55.3.
The worries about the US economy have started to emerge again last Friday with the down revision of US annualized GDP of Q1 to 0.4% from 1.8% in the previous reading and weaker than expected growing in the second quarter by 1.6% while it was foreseen to be 1.9%. That's besides the declining of July US Chicago PMI to 58.8 from 61.1 in June while it was forecasted to get down to 60.2 and also the falling of US UN. Michigan consuming sentiment survey of July to 63.7 from 71.5 in June highlighting the possibility of having new quantitive easing steps from the Fed which has referred in its recent beige book release last week about 12 US districts to the period ending on 15th of July to the weakness of US housing market and also the US labor markets showing that 8 of these 12 have shown signs of growth slowing down.
The Japanese yen also as a low yielding funding currency could get use of this dovish sentiment getting USDJPY down below 77.15 and further easing down from here can be met by supporting level at 76.88 and the falling of it can be followed by 76.41 which has been reached on the subsequences of March earthquake by the Japanese intervention which can threat the Japanese yen ascending for helping to the struggling Japanese exports at these current hurting levels of the Japanese yen exchange rates.
USDCHF has fallen too to 0.7705 because of the investors who are looking for a safer haven stance out of the US treasuries notes amid worries about the debt in US and in EU weighing down on the markets sentiment while this pair is still under continued technical pressure by being below its trend line resistance which is extended from 0.9338 to 0.8945 and over a longer range from being below the trend line resistance extension from 1.1729 to 0.9773 and God willing, its next resisting levels can be at 0.8076, 0.8276 then 0.8551
By God's will, it is important to wait next Friday for the release of US labor report of July which is expected to show rising of US non-farm payroll by 90k jobs with the unemployment standing at 9.2% and weaker figures than these expectations can increase the market worries about the US growth outlook and raising the possibilities of having further funds to be injected supporting the US economy from the Fed which always shows its special care of the labor market.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 04-08-2011, 02:13 PM   #9
walid
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افتراضي 4/8/2011 - The current market sentiment

The Markets are waiting now for the ECB's interest rate decision which is widely expected to be for keeping the interest rate unchanged at 1.5% following July hiking by 0.25%, after easing of July EU CPI preliminary reading to 2.5% from 2.7% in June and the market will be focusing on the ECB's president language in the press conference following the decision to know whether or not it will maintain its view that the prices risks are still to the upside or not while it's widely expected to see turning back to the mantra that the ECB is very closely watching the prices which always hints to the markets that there is no close rate hike decision from saying that strong vigilance is warranted which always refers to a coming hiking decision.
The single currency is trading now at 1.423 versus the greenback after the release of June Germane Factor orders which have shown rising monthly by 1.8% as a the same as May while it was expected to decline by 0.1% comparing with June US factory orders which have shown yesterday declining by 0.8% monthly while the markets were waiting for decreasing by 0.4% after rising by 0.6% in May.
God willing the single currency next supporting level versus the greenback is expected to be again at 1.414 level which have supported it previously after falling from 1.4452 to rise again forming a another lower high at 1.437 which is the pair next resistance currently.
The markets will be waiting also today by God's will, for the release of US initial jobless claim which is expected to show rising to 408k from 398k a weak earlier after the release of July US ADP Employment change which came at 114k while the market was waiting for adding just 102k from 157k in June which supported the US stocks markets yesterday with optimism to have better than expected data from the US Labor report of July which is scheduled to be released tomorrow and it is expected to contain rising of July US non-farm payroll to 90k from 18k in June keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.2%.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
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قديم 04-08-2011, 03:22 PM   #10
أبو ركـــــون
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