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العودة   منتديات تداول > الادارة والاقتصاد > مـــنــــتــــــدى السلع و العملات والنفط



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قديم 17-05-2012, 04:04 PM   #51
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 686

 
افتراضي 17/5/2012 - The current market sentiment

The presidential elections in France and the parliament elections in Greece results are still putting pressure on the single currency as they looked to the market like a referendum on the austerities measures like this which has been asked by the previous Greek PM George Papandreou which lead to his resignation last year after retreating back of doing it amid strong criticism from EU core funding countries of the Greek debt as it is obvious that the streets in the countries south of Europe which are suffering from debt crisis are against these measures.
These measures included cuts of the public sector wages and jobs and cuts of the governmental spending and in the same time increasing of the taxes to dampen the growth in the same time they cut the deficit of these debt ailing countries budgets.
But the situation is different surely from France to Greece as it is not allowed to this last one to say no these measures and there is no leeway to go through without the European strict following up specially after announcing the second bailing out plan of Greece which counted this expected change into its account in its structure.
While the case in France is another thing as it will be required from the wealthy people to pay much with this new social president who promised to make a change in the EU fiscal pact in the benefit of the current struggling EU growth and this stance has effected negatively on the French stocks market as Germany can not accept this change easily and this can cause a split between these 2 countries who are the main EU policies markers in the face of the crisis which can lead to cracks inside the Euro zone which is suffering strong downside growth risks and weak labor market as what has been highlighted recently from The ECB president who looked worried last week after the ECB decision to keep the interest rate unchanged about the labor market in EU which carries the negative impact of debt crisis and the negative impact of the governmental efforts for getting over it by cutting its spending and hiking the taxes with rising of March EU unemployment to 10.9% showing persisting difficulty facing this sector and this pushed him to call for restructure reforms and spending on the infrastructures for supporting demand in this market for adding more jobs.
The ECB is still looking for positive changes by its recent LTROs 2 rounds in the European economy as they have done in the banking sector inside the EU which has been saved by this program but its impact on the European economy is still looking lagged behind and the sack of confidence in the euro zone economy can move it forward to take more steps in stimulating this economy which is giving weak signs and this prospective is putting pressure on the single currency versus the greenback from another side as it is not looking crucial to be done by the Fed as it looks currently in the euro zone so, it looks now that the ECB is the closer one to these measures than the Fed.
The ECB has not given last week hinting of a new LTROs or an interest rate cut decision which has not been discussed in the last meeting of its member as what has been announced in the press conference after it showing appreciation of the current inflation upside risks which are resulted from the high energy, commodities prices and the imposed taxes while the downside risks are pushing down by the economic slowing down expecting the inflation to stance above the ECB 2% y/y target in 2012 before easing below it in the beginning of 2013 by God's will.
God willing after opening this week below its previous support at 1.3056 falling below its psychological level at 1.30 reaching 1.2953 in the beginning of the week, this pair can meet another supporting level at 1.2930, 1.2874 before 1.2631 which has been the pair formed bottom on 13th of last January while getting up again can face resistance at 1.30 63 whereas it has failed to recover further this week to fall again below 1.30 and in the case of breaking it, it can meet a higher resistance at 1.3180 and this can be followed by 1.3281 which its breaking can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 18-05-2012, 11:39 AM   #52
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 686

 
افتراضي 18/5/2012 - The current market sentiment

The pressure is still continued at the single currency because of the political risks which threatening the union after Hollande's winning in France and the failure of forming a new government in Greece which will be waiting for another parliament elections next month by God's will.
The negative side of this critical situation is standing mainly over the short term to the single currency with the markets shrugging off any positive data or successful bonds auctions in the Euro zone focusing on these risks which can lead to expelling Greece out of the euro increasing the risks looming around other debt ailing countries like Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy.
While the positive side is that this debt ailing country getting out of the euro can make it much more credible especially as EU has been dealing with the Greece situation as a special case in the Euro zone from the beginning despite the weak financial situation of other countries inside the Euro zone but it is not allowed to Greece to say no any measures and there is no leeway to go through without the European strict following up after announcing the second bailing out plan of Greece which counted this expected change into its account in its structure.
The running discussions in the market now are about a great chance of buying the single currency after this event but the fear of contagion risks will be always there with the need of stability in the EU financial system and confidence in the governments ability to get over its budget deficit while the economy is struggling and in need to be revived to make the investors trust that the worst has become behind of us.
So, The ECB can find that it is inevitable again to start another LTROs round or cutting the interest rate as a monetary option with the current growing social direction inside the Euro zone which is fighting the austerities measure and that's still looking from Hollande's stance which can encourage other countries to do so laying on the need of stimulating the economy currently..
God willing, in the case of falling further the pair can meet now 1.2631 which has been formed bottom on 13th of last January and breaking it can open the way for lower supporting levels at 1.2586, 1.2151 before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebounded forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 which drove the pair later to reach 1.4939 on 4th of May 2011 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again and in the case of rising again the pair can face resisting levels now at 1.2757, 1.2867, 1.3063, 1.3180 and this can be followed by 1.3281 which its breaking can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 29-05-2012, 03:06 PM   #53
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 686

 
افتراضي 29/5/2012 - The Current Market Sentiment

The greenback could find demand again after the risk appetite has got a new hit today by the released Chinese comments about its plans to not be aggressive in stimulating its economy while the worries about the Spanish banking system are still putting pressure on the single currency versus the greenback after it could raise its head over the 1.26 level in the beginning of the week following an opinion poll in Greece has shown rising of the pro-bailing out parties.
The single currency could hardly hover over 1.25 by the end of last week with increasing market worries about the debt contagion risks in the EU and the economic slow down which can lead to further ECB's easing steps by injecting more cheap money into its struggling banking system for reviving the economy and calling the market worries especially in the case of Greece's departure out of the EU.
God Willing, We are waiting today for May US consumer confidence release which is expected to be 70 from 69.2 in April before series of data about the US economy to come this week about US pace of growth in the first quarter and also about the manufacturing sector and the labor market performances this month while the market is living a wait and see stance looking for new clues about the political situation in Greece and the Spanish banking sector.
God willing, in the case of falling further the pair can meet now supporting level at 1.25 psychological level which is still holding capping it from further loses which can lead to reaching 1.2151 which its breaking can open the way for 1.1876 again whereas the pair has rebounded forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 which drove the pair later to reach 1.4939 on 4th of May 2011 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again and in the case of rising again the pair can face resisting levels now at 1.2626, 1.2757, 1.2867, 1.3063, 1.3180 and this can be followed by 1.3281 which its breaking can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 04-06-2012, 03:31 AM   #54
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 686

 
افتراضي القلق على أداء سوق العمل الأمريكي يرفع الضغط عن اليورو أمام الدولار

بدأ اليورو تداولاته هذا الإسبوع امام الدولار فوق مستوى ال 1.24 بعد أن تغير الجو العام لأسواق يوم الجمعة الماضية في إتجاة بيع الدولار عقب صدور تقربر العمالة الأمريكي لشهر مايو و الذي أظهر إضافة 69 الف وظيفة خارج القطاع الزراعي بينما كانت تُشير التوقعات لإضافة 150 ألف وظيفة كما تم مراجعة إضافة إبريل ل 77 ألف من 115 ألف في القراءة الأولية كما أظهر التقرير أيضاً إرتفاع معدل البطالة ل 8.2% بينما كان من المُنتظر إستقراره عند 8.1% كما كان الحال في إبريل كما تلى صدور تلك البيانات التي تُشير إلى صعوبة في إنتاج الوظائف في الولايات المتحدة مجيء أيضاً مؤشرISM لمديرين المشتريات في الولايات المتحدة عن القطاع الصناعي على تراجع ل 53.5 عن شهر مايو بينما كان المتوقع تراجعه ل 53.9 فقط من 54.8 في إبريل كما تراجع مؤشر الأسعار المدفوعة داخل هذا المؤشر بقوة ل 47.5 بينما كان المُنتظر تراجع ل 56.8 من 61 في إبريل مما يُشير إلى تراجع الضغوط التضخمية داخل هذا القطاع الذي يشهد في نفس الوقت تراجع في أسعار المواد الخام ليتعرض الدولار الأمريكي لضغط أمام اليورو نتيجة تنامي التوقعات بإتخاذ الفدرالي مذيد من الخطوات التحفيزية قد تأتي في صورة خطة ثالثة لدعم الكمي خاصةً بعد إتمام تنفيذ قرار الإنتقال من السندات قصيرة الأجل لسندات طويلة الأجل بقيمة 400 مليار دولار بنهاية الشهر الجاري ليتمكن اليورو من إغلاق الإسبوع فوق مستوى ال 1.24 أمام الدولار بعد أن قد كان يتداول قبل صدور بيانات سوق العمالة الأمريكية عند 1.232 أمام الدولار.
و قد أدى تراجع شهية المخاطرة المصاحب لصدور هذة البيانات لهبوط اليورو أمام الدولار ل 1.2286 قبل أن يعود و يرتد لأعلى حيثُ يتداول عند هذة المستويات الحالية بعد تركيز الأسواق على تراجع الإقتصاد الأمريكي و احتياجه للتحفيز و تنتظر الاسواق بإهتمام هذا الإسبوع صدور بيان ال Beige Book كما تنتظر حديث من بن برنانكي رئيس الفدرالي لمعرفة المذيد عن إتجاة الفدرالي و كان قد سبق و أقر بن برنانكي بأن المشاكل التي يُعاني منها سوق العمل الحالية دورية و ليست هيكلية مما قد يُرجح الإتجاة لتحفيزه من خلال الفدرالي الذي ظل في تقاريره الصادرة عنه مؤخراً محتفظاً بإحتمال اللجوء إلى هذا الخيار في حال تدهور أداء الإقتصاد الأمريكي الذي نمى ب 1.9% سنوياً في البرع الأول كما اظهرت أخر قراءة له الإسبوع الماضي.
و يُتوقع أن يُقابل اليورو الأن بإذن الله في حال مواصلة الإرتفاع مقاومة عند مستوى ال 1.25 النفسي ثم عند 1.2622 يليها 1.2822 ثم عند مستوى ال 1.30 النفسي قبل 1.3063 ف 1.318 ثم 1.3281 التي قد يتبع سقوطها مواجهة 1.3384 قبل مقابلة مقاومتة السابقة عند 1.3489 التي فشل في إختراقها بنهاية شهر فبراير الماضي ليُعاود الهبوط و يُنتظر في حال الإستمرار في هذة الهبوط مواجهة 1.2286 التي إرتد منها يوم الجمعة الماضية يليه 1.2151 قبل ملاقاة مستوى لدعم النفسي عند 1.20 الذي قد يتبعه 1.18 حيثُ أدنى نقطة وصل إليها في السابع من يونيو 2010 تحت ضغط أذمة الديون اليونانية أيضاً.

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walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 05-06-2012, 03:44 AM   #55
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 686

 
افتراضي 5/6/2012 - The current market sentiment

The pressure on the greenback has continued during the Asian session after the market focusing had been shifted to the weakness of the US labor market and the possibility of having more easing steps from the Fed to stimulate it from the EU debt crisis and the problems which are facing the Spanish banking sector and the mixed political situation in Greece.
The single currency could rise again over 1.25 psychological level versus the greenback despite the current market risk aversion sentiment which always underpins the greenback and the Japanese yen by unwinding of the carry trades as low yielding currencies.
God Willing, The market is waiting now for the release of Fed's Beige Book and the testimony of the Fed's Chief later this week to know more about the fed's appreciation of the current economic pace of growth specially after the recent manufacturing and industrial data which have shown further losing momentum as May US ISM Manufacturing index has come at 53.3 by the end of last week while the market was waiting for 53.9 from 54.8 in April and in the beginning of this week we have seen US factories orders of April down monthly by 0.6% while the market consensus was referring to rising by 0.3%after falling by 2.1% in March.
The market is also waiting tomorrow for the ECB's interest rate decision and the press conference of Mario Draghi which is awaited after it to know more about the stance amid the current exacerbating economic conditions in the EU to know whether there are new injection of cheap money into its struggling banking system for reviving the economy or not with the current market worries about Greece's departure out of the EU.
We have seen also easing of the pricing pressure in the manufacturing sector by the falling of US ISM manufacturing prices paid index into the contracting territory to 47.5 while the market was waiting for easing to 56.8 from 61 in April showing easing of the inflation pressure accompanied with the recent falls of energy and commodities prices giving distance to the Fed's to take such waited steps to stimulate the economy with no worries about the inflation upside risks.
God willing, the single currency can meet now resisting levels at 1.2626, 1.2757, 1.2867, 1.3063, 1.3180 and this can be followed by 1.3281 which its breaking can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November while its way for falling again can be met with supporting levels at 1.2357 before 1.2286 which could hold by the end of last week and the breaking of it can lead again to 1.2151 which its breaking can open the way for 1.1876 again whereas the pair has rebounded forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 which drove the pair later to reach 1.4939 on 4th of May 2011 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
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