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العودة   منتديات تداول > الادارة والاقتصاد > مـــنــــتــــــدى السلع و العملات والنفط



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قديم 22-11-2010, 05:15 AM   #1
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 

افتراضي Trading Tips from 21 to 30

Trader Tip 21: You should close you position at your technical target or on a change of the current market sentiment you are on by data, news or comments and avoid the thin trading and get out of it.

Trader Tip 22: Look for some reason to trade and do not look for some price to trade. The market can make a high after high and low after low and there is a reason of that and you should be with. This reason can be technical or fundamental. Do not say it has become so high or so low. It can be go higher or lower as long as it is the same market sentiment and there is no change but just care of the corrective waves when it is to start to go behind 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to 62.8% and total retracement is a strong sign of the market reversing. It is rarely to watch a clear reversing after one top. It is mostly a double top (or a double bottom) or a head and shoulders. These patterns can contain the market technical interest and it can have much more strength after it's success to go through each exercising on its way.

Trader Tip 23: Take care when the second top is to start to be higher than the first one this is a continuation sign on a new wave and not a reversal sign.

Trader Tip 24: No need to average in the light volume and it is preferred to cut loss here. Try to be reasonable when you average and control your taken risk and do not let it to control you.

Trader Tip 25: It is preferred to not average if you decided to go along with a corrective wave and you have said to yourself that it has peaked out. It is risky to do and the pulse wave can cause a strong fast damage to you. It is not reliable to do and waiting for the correction is better than being with it. This can save time and efforts and money and much more attractive chances.

Trader Tip 26: It is mostly better to wait for 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pulse wave to start anticipating for another pulse wave and to start your average too if you have already gone along with the first wave and faced the corrective wave.

Trader Tip 27: It is preferred to trade the European currencies in the European session and the US session for intraday traders. These sessions can carry the data and the comments on these currencies which can move them.

Trader Tip 28: It is better to wait for the resistance and the supports breaking than going against them and especially on the first try to breaking them. The historical experienced strong levels can tackle you strongly and breaking it can reinforce you.

Trader Tip 29: The pattern formation can help you to determine you target but the failure of the pattern can lead to a reverse of the result of the pattern whether it was a continuation pattern or a reversal pattern.

Trader Tip 30: It is better to start your normal trading in the normal trading times of the day (not after or ahead of key data or serious comments) lightly and you can average wisely by what you can control easily to catch up with better market rates and try to not go beyond 1/20 leverage of your account on one direction and always determine your stop loss place with each average you take. Do not risk your money and make the stop loss place closer as you can especially if you had placed more weights.


Walid Salah El Din
FX Consultant
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 22-11-2010, 11:39 AM   #2
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 22/11/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The single currency has started trading this week strongly across the broad underpinned by the Irish acceptance of the EU and IMF bailing out aids during the weekend to be the second this year following Greece which has had about 110b Euros while Ireland is expected to ask for about 80b Euros 60 of them for covering the accumulated budget deficit of the next 3 years and the 20 directly for supporting the ailing banking system of it which has suffered strongly after the credit crisis in the recent years and weighed on the country budget which decided to carry its banks losses during the crisis. The Britains have announced last week their readiness to support Ireland beside the EU and the IMF while Ireland was showing no need for this help in the beginning but suddenly in a faster than expected action, The Irishs have shown acceptance of the rescue package offered by the EU and the IMF which worth 1 trillion Euros and has prepared this year on the market worries about the debt stance in Euro zone which can spread out of it for bailing out ailing economies inside the Euro area for getting their deficit to GDP below 3% as Maastricht treaty pact. It looked that there is no other way but this in front of them while they face strong resistance in imposing new austerity measure as expected and difficulties to hike the 12.5% imposed corporate taxes which is the lowest in Europe. The single currency has opened on a gad versus the greenback and it is still trading above 1.37 as the market sentiment has been contained back by the debt problems in EU to be traded below 1.36 versus the greenback last week after the investors have been encouraged to start taking profits earlier this month after the Fed has actually taken its waited decision of the Fed of adding another 600B to its adopted quantitive easing policy of its buying of US treasuries till the end of June 2011 driving the greenback down across the broad pushing the single currency to be traded above 1.425 before the profit taken wave beginning fueled by better than expected release of US non-farm payrolls of October has shown adding 151k after losing 41k in September while the market was waiting for adding just 60k.
The British pound could get back above 1.6 versus the greenback underpinned by improving of the risk appetite after a close reached deal concerning the Irish debt and waited positive opening of the US stocks and gains in the Asian equities markets. The British pound has been underpinned recent by stronger than expected UK retail sales of October came up monthly by .5% and it was waited to be just .2% after falling in September by .5% and another CPI release of October came this week above 3% at 3.2% yearly which could maintain to the market the BOE worries about the upside inflation risks and cooling it down from taking further easing steps to stimulate the economy which is expected to show growing by 0.5% q/q as The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has expected in the third quarter. The British pound has been underpinned recently by the BOE keeping of its buying bonds plan as it is worrying about the inflation outlook for the second consecutive meeting against wide markets expectations of exceeding its plan more than it is currently at 200B Stg specially after the recent decision of the Fed of adding another 600B to its adopted quantitive easing policy of its buying of US treasuries till the end of June 2011 keeping its mortgages baked securities buying program at its same rate which is about 35B$ a month currently making the total planed pumping funds about 880B$ in what's been read as a devaluation of the greenback can be approved by BOE to some extent for containing the inflation pressure while it is still worrying the Asian economies which are about to take steps for containing inflation currently as China despite the G20 meeting and Obama's recent Asian trips which have not come out with what can be new to calm down these economies worries about US QE monetary policy stance which has already driven the prices of the energy and the commodities up which can increase the cost of their growth and force them to cool it down weighing negatively on their equities markets while you can see this week easily dear reader this week US October PPI coming out from US at just .4% below the market expectations of .8% and excluding the food and energy at -.6% while it was waited to be .1% and also Oct CPI which was expected to be up monthly by .3% from .1% in September coming at .2% and its core figure to be .1% from a flat reading in September came flat again which refer to the same Fed's concerns about the deflation forces which face the US economy and forced it to surprise the market by another 600B$ package of buying new debts while the market was waiting for a new package from 300B$ to 500B$ keeping its monthly buying mortgages baked securities at about 35B$ making the total expected pumped funds above 850B$ till the end of next June about 880B$ in what could be read as a devaluation of the greenback.
God willing, we have no important data today but EU consumer confidence of November which is expected to be -10 from -11 in October and ECB president Trichet's speaking to come.

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 23-11-2010, 03:12 AM   #3
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي Trading Tips from 31 to 40

Trader Tip 31: Please try to take the positions that can be kept over the mid and long term mostly. This can lead you to an earlier closing too.

Trader Tip 32: If your broker grantees the stop loss and the limit order you place, you can put your limits 15 minutes before the strong key data. If not then trade two, one against one put very tight stop loss if you placed the limits and if one of them has triggered in spite of you then place your stop loss directly to this triggered one and closer to the entry rather than the other untriggered one. If you find that you can not place any limit before the data remember again to make one against one and if one of them has stopped by its stop loss no problems as this means profits on the other part.

Trader Tip 33: If you want to anticipate before the data do not trade without a stop loss order.

Trader Tip 34: The profit taken is light and just one the spike the next wave is just when you see a consolidation after the profit taken and it is light again.

Trader Tip 35: No need to do average more than once according the same sentiment no need at all but you should just wait for this change of the current market sentiment. So try to be light and do not be in love with your positions if there is a clear change against you even if it had not made the negative impact against you yet but it is just threat you and form a new resistance against you.

Trader Tip 36: If there are more than one indicator are waited to be released in the same time and one came against the other then it is a good opportunity to take profits on the release that has moved the market directly.

Trader Tip 37: The technical indicators can help you to determine the over bought and over sold conditions and they are useful in the sideway market and they give you clear points to open new positions. But using the Elliot waves is much preferred when there is a clear trend persisting and it can give you reliable points to open your new positions too.

Trader Tip 38: Light trading volume increases the correction probabilities.

Trader Tip 39: Please take care after the big amount of profits that you should be always wise and do not increase your risk and keep your pace of risk as always and do not put much more risk to make profits in a constant way.

Trader Tip 40: You should be patient seeking for your hunt and the most valued hunt is the end of the corrective wave. When you are inside the trend and you have seen a consolidation. It can help you as it is to reach your trend line which can show you whether to get out or to have an end of this consolidation. So you should care of the trend line and the time line of the trend that you trade on. Mostly the corrective wave end is well known with strong reverse on reaching it. So wait for this sign. So the time is an important factor too and it is in need to your patience.


Walid Salah El Din
FX Consultant
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 23-11-2010, 08:00 PM   #4
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 23/11/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The worries about the debt outlook inside the Euro area could keep pressing on the single currency again today breaking below 1.35 psychological level trading currently at 1.338 versus the greenback which has been already supported by selling in the equities markets despite the revising up of US Q3 GDP to 2.5% from just 2% as the risk aversion sentiment is containing the markets supporting of the gold across the broad after triggered fire between the 2 Koreans which killed 2 south Korean soldiers and unknown damage yet on the northern Korean part which underpinned the demand for the US treasuries from another side looking for the USD dominations as a safe haven again while the gold is looking for getting above 1380$ again right now in squaring fear of risk by the thanksgiving holidays which can spark volatility in the markets this year.
After the market concerning have calmed down in the beginning of this week on a reached deal between IMF, EU and Ireland for having a bailing out package to the last to be the second after Greece this year, the Irish government is facing a stronger criticism can threat its existence for having to impose further taxes adopting new austerity measures under this new debt conditions while it is still stick to its 12.5% corporate taxes which is the lowest in Europe currently and this new unclear political position could effect negatively again on the single currency stability across the broad fearing of spreading out of this stance in Europe and in any new countries can take from this IMF and EU 1 trillion Euros prepared package this year even with its lower interest than the normal bond markets for facing its debt stance deterioration especially after the credit crisis 2 years ago which caused strong loses of their banking system and Ireland was one of the first countries to support its ailing banking system carrying of its loses to suffer severely after the credit crisis in the recent years which weighed negatively on its budget which is in need to this new loans to refinance its current exacerbating deficit gap after its Department of Finance was coming out denying the need for it but the current slow rate of growth which can get down further following the US economy slowing growth and weak labor market in the second half of this year after it was running above 10% in the 90s before adopting the Euro forced it at the end to sign for it for getting their deficit to GDP below 3% as Maastricht treaty pact!
The ECB has already warned earlier this year about the long term debt refinancing in Europe which looks in need of 800 billions euros by the end of 2012 suggesting that the European banks are in need to be ready for facing bad loans following the debt crisis which can reach 123 billions euros for 2010 and 2011 to reach 105 for 2011 and for facing the bad loans from 2007 till 2009 they should be ready with 238 billion euros and the financing problems seems to be ahead from showing a serious need for storing stability and injecting funds into the nerves of the European banks too as the European governments which can transfer the problem to the balance sheet of the ECB threating the single currency credibility.

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 24-11-2010, 06:41 AM   #5
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي Trading Tips from 41 to 50

Trader Tip 41: Please take care of the continuation signs inside the trend anticipation for further persisting of the trend heavily is better than anticipation for a correction from it and if you have done this for the correction please close your stop loss to the average as much as you can and do not hesitate to close your loss and this is the speculation for the correction and it is mostly uselessly especially as there is no signs yet of the reflection. You make money mainly on these continuation signs safely. They are many and reliable most of the time especially as there is no sign of the correction as strong resistance or support level tackles the trend for a long time relatively to your trend.

Trader Tip 42: You may like to make an average before triggering your stop loss. You can do but close on the stop loss of the prime position and consider the average your last hope before the stop loss triggering no need to move your stop loss especially if you have had already a high used margin can be 20% of your account.

Trader Tip 43: When you want to determine your strong levels on the chart (the supports and the resistances) try to choose the most experienced ones which show you end of the bars on meeting them to be accurate as the strong level clears to your decision especially to take your profit or to place your stop loss or even to average on meeting it with a close stop loss order on breaking it.

Trader Tip 44: When you take your average position you should appreciate your stop loss place as each average position has its stop loss place. It is normally to close your stop loss place to your new average entry to reduce the risk. It is preferred to stop your loss waiting for the change or the strong level to anticipate. The average decision can be ok if it is near the strong levels and reasonably.

Trader Tip 45: Do not run behind your loss just trade normally and leave this to your high amount of success percentage to come back above your loss. It is better than using high leverages. Your stop loss tactic is very important to reduce your loss for better chances catching up with better market condition than the loosing one you are at currently before the cut.

Trader Tip 46: It is better to speculate on the next expected move than waiting for meeting the support or the resistance for making an average. However it can be good to close your position on your target at the strong level meeting and you should take care that breaking this level is a continuation sign.

Trader Tip 47: You should be light on your speculation on a corrective wave with a closer stop loss.

Trader Tip 48: Try your best to choose the best to buy and the best to sell abstractly.

Trader Tip 49: Please try to be with the current market sentiment as long as you do not face a resistance and you see the market going with you. Taking risk at these circumstances is preferred but you should always have a stop loss place and a care of the resistance you can face to get out.

Trader Tip 50: When you trade in the Asian session, please take care when you trade crosses as the JPY is the effecting not the USD. So it is preferred to buy or sell the JPY on its trend or its current sentiment. It means that if GBP is weak and JPY is weak GBP JPY can go higher mostly for instance.


Walid Salah El Din
FX Consultant
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com


walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 24-11-2010, 05:07 PM   #6
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 24/11/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The greenback could add to its gains early in the European session breaking below 1.33 despite the germane IFO historical recorded high of November which has not been seen since 1991 reaching 109.3 while it was expected to be just 107.4 easing from 107.7 in October but the worries about the debt outlook inside the Euro area are still putting pressure on the single currency which is still under technical selling pressure after inability to break above 1.3775 in the beginning of this week drawing down breaking 1.35 psychological level which triggered stop losing orders adding to the downward momentum which lead the pair to be traded below 1.33 today while the pair real major supporting area is starting from 1.3030 to 1.297 and the failing there can lead to testing the pair recent bottom at 1.26.
The greenback has been already supported by revising up of US Q3 GDP to 2.5% from just 2% but this could not improve the market risk appetite which has been affected negatively by the triggered fire between the 2 Koreans which killed 2 south Korean soldiers and unknown damage yet on the northern Korean part which lead to a risk aversion sentiment is containing the markets supporting of the gold and the greenback across the broad underpinned by the demand for the US treasuries from another side looking for the USD dominations as a safe haven again while the gold is looking for getting above 1380$ again right now in squaring fear of risk by the thanksgiving holidays which can spark volatility in the markets this year.
After the market concerns about Ireland have calmed down in the beginning of this week on a reached deal between IMF, EU and Ireland during the weekend for having a bailing out package from 80B Euros to what's below 100B Euros as the Irish government has announced later this week to be the second after Greece this year but this acceptance has exposed the Irish government to a stronger criticism can threat its existence for having to impose further taxes adopting new austerity measures under this new debt conditions while it is still stick to its 12.5% corporate taxes which is the lowest in Europe currently and this new unclear political position could effect negatively again on the single currency stability across the broad fearing of spreading out of this stance in Europe and in any new countries can take from this IMF and EU 1 trillion Euros prepared package this year even with its lower interest than the normal bond markets for facing its debt stance deterioration especially after the credit crisis 2 years ago which caused strong loses of their banking system and Ireland was one of the first countries to support its ailing banking system carrying of its loses to suffer severely after the credit crisis in the recent years which weighed negatively on its budget which is in need to this new loans to refinance its current exacerbating deficit gap after its Department of Finance was coming out denying the need for it but the current slow rate of growth which can get down further following the US economy slowing growth and weak labor market in the second half of this year after it was running above 10% in the 90s before adopting the Euro forced it at the end to sign for it accepting further tightening pressure on its budget which should be announced later this week and in need to be accepted on the 7th of next month which can keep the pressure on the single currency which has really suffered this year from the unsustainable debt positions of its countries which made the ECB to warn earlier this year about the long term debt refinancing in Europe which looks in need of 800 billions euros by the end of 2012 suggesting that the European banks are in need to be ready for facing bad loans following the debt crisis which can reach 123 billions euros for 2010 and 2011 to reach 105 for 2011 and for facing the bad loans from 2007 till 2009 they should be ready with 238 billion euros and the financing problems seems to be ahead from showing a serious need for storing stability and injecting funds into the nerves of the European banks too as the European governments which can transfer the problem to the balance sheet of the ECB threating the single currency credibility.

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 25-11-2010, 03:12 PM   #7
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 25/11/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The greenback is still keeping its gains across the broad trading below 1.33 again as yesterday release of the germane IFO historical recorded high of November which has not been seen since 1991 reaching 109.3 while it was expected to be just 107.4 easing from 107.7 in October could not ease the market worries about the debt outlook inside the Euro area capping the single currency from getting over 1.342 despite the improving of the market risk appetite yesterday which triggered gaining in the equities market after Tuesday strong selling on worries about Irish debt and the tension in the Korean semi island as it is still under strong technical selling pressure after inability to break above 1.3775 in the beginning of this week drawing down breaking 1.35 psychological level which triggered stop losing orders adding to the downward momentum which lead the pair to be traded below 1.33 today while the pair real major supporting area is starting from 1.3030 to 1.297 and the failing there can lead to testing the pair recent bottom at 1.26.
The greenback has been already supported by revising up of US Q3 GDP to 2.5% from just 2% but this could not improve the market risk appetite which has been affected negatively by the triggered fire between the 2 Koreans which killed 2 south Korean soldiers and unknown damage yet on the northern Korean part which lead to a risk aversion sentiment is containing the markets supporting of the gold and the greenback across the broad underpinned by the demand for the US treasuries from another side looking for the USD dominations as a safe haven again while the gold is still looking for getting above 1380$ again right now in squaring fear of risk by the thanksgiving holidays which can spark volatility in the markets this year.
After the market concerns about Ireland have calmed down in the beginning of this week on a reached deal between IMF, EU and Ireland during the weekend for having a bailing out package from 80B Euros to what's below 100B Euros as the Irish government has announced later this week to be the second after Greece this year but this acceptance has exposed the Irish government to a stronger criticism can threat its existence for having to impose further taxes adopting new austerity measures under this new debt conditions while it sees in sticking to its 12.5% corporate taxes great benefit attracting investment to it as the lowest in Europe currently and this new unclear political position could effect negatively again on the single currency stability fearing of spreading out of this stance in Europe and in any new countries can take from this IMF and EU 1 trillion Euros prepared package this year even with its lower interest than the normal bond markets for facing its debt stance deterioration especially after the credit crisis 2 years ago which caused strong loses of their banking system and Ireland was one of the first countries to support its ailing banking system carrying of its loses to suffer severely after the credit crisis in the recent years which weighed negatively on its budget which is in need to this new loans to refinance its current exacerbating deficit gap after its Department of Finance was coming out denying the need for it but the current slow rate of growth which can get down further following the US economy slowing growth and weak labor market in the second half of this year after it was running above 10% in the 90s before adopting the Euro forced it at the end to sign for it accepting further tightening pressure on the 7th of next month which can keep the pressure on the single currency which has really suffered this year from the unsustainable debt positions of its countries which made the ECB to warn earlier this year about the long term debt refinancing in Europe which looks in need of 800 billions euros by the end of 2012 suggesting that the European banks are in need to be ready for facing bad loans following the debt crisis which can reach 123 billions euros for 2010 and 2011 to reach 105 for 2011 and for facing the bad loans from 2007 till 2009 they should be ready with 238 billion euros and the financing problems seems to be ahead from showing a serious need for storing stability and injecting funds into the nerves of the European banks too as the European governments which can transfer the problem to the balance sheet of the ECB threating the single currency credibility.

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 26-11-2010, 04:34 PM   #8
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي Trading Tips from 51 to 60

Trader Tip 51: You can make good profits on the risk control you do. It is preferred to be always with the pulse wave but if you wanted the corrective wave you should be light and you should not make an average. If you take the right risk the market volatility can make the profits each time constantly and the profits will be more than the losses but you should not be emotional on the loses this can cause a damage to your risk control especially if there is a clear break of a certain strong level. So try to save your time and your efforts and your money for the pulse one joining the pulse wave can make at least 7 winners of 10 players. But these three times of loses can cause a serious damage if there is not minded risk control with no hesitation in time. So you should always hunt for this pulse wave on the persistence of the trend on the chart and do not depend just on your risk control but you need to be patient looking for the persisting sentiment and then the corrective waves can help you and it can help you in putting your stop loss too.

Trader Tip 52: It is not preferred to take profits on the rate decisions. Especially on the US assessment after the fed's rate decision. This can change the market sentiment.

Trader Tip 53: You have to care after the data whether there is an immanent profit taken or not if there is no profit taken this means another widely expected prolonged wave in favor of the data. There is an actual change in ask and bid on these significant data.

Trader Tip 54: No immanent profit taken is a clear continuation sign.

Trader Tip 55: Total retracement on profit taken is a clear reversing sign.

Trader Tip 56: You should wait at least 10 seconds after the data to start take profits on a corrective wave.

Trader Tip 57: The conditions of the market before the data is a very important factor in evaluation the market discounting degree which can show you the strength of the profit taken and the change of the current market sentiment.

Trader Tip 58: It is always recommended to make profits on your market understanding than risking your funds then you are really a professional trader. So always be wise and do not give chances to the market to drag you.

Trader Tip 59: do not expose yourself to the market fluctuations price during the day. It can be ok for several times but its loss is always sever to your account and waste all of your effort uselessly. You should have a direction in mind on your analyses to expose yourself our main rule is that you should have some reason to trade not some price to trade. Missing his point causing of the most loses of the Forex traders specially the beginning. Please be aware of that.

Trader Tip 60: you should always have a stop loss place at the beginning of your trade. Your taken risk level should be balanced that you should reduce it on the volatility not the opposite! Then it is your certainty degree to trade and to close.


Walid Salah El Din
FX Consultant
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 27-11-2010, 11:28 AM   #9
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي Trading Tips from 61 to 70

Trader Tip 61: the stop loss order is not as you are outdoors carrying a position but it is to be paced where you see a clear reverse at.

Trader Tip 62: It is wiser to look at the current market condition than looking at your equity in loses or in profits. You should have what the market gives not what you want.

Trader Tip 63: the stop loss place is a relative thing. you are always exposed but you should have a stop loss. then you can choose your accepted downward and your unaccepted one too. the stop loss help you especially after a consolidation period as the breaking of the barriers of the consolidation can be in form of a trend fueled by market stop loses.

Trader Tip 64: do not repeat your position after the stop loss as long as you have chosen a well place for it.

Trader Tip 65: generally, as long as you see further rooms against you, you have to close your current position. there can be a trend and further loses. so do not rely on average on this case waiting for further losing rooms!

Trader Tip 66: the direction in the normal trading times of the day with a market sentiment forming a trend should not be defied but just wait for a correction of it or join as it is the current market sentiment. Whatever it was fast or excessive but it is the current direction. You can wait for a higher low to join that trend or go with it with a stop lower than the current bottom using a stop loss behind on these lines breaking is recommended. Caring of that trading just after the data is something else as it usually followed by a profit taking wave.

Trader Tip 67: do not test the market but wait for the market to exercise your experiences and analyses.

Trader Tip 68: You can see how the market has reacted clearly to the US labor report at the chart in this link http://www.fx-recommends.com/fxrecommends.html . the market was expecting the US labor report to come at 200k for November 2004 but it has came lower than expected at just 112k. GBPUSD has made the spike on the data and here you can see clearly that in spite of the main dovish sentiment that was containing the market the profit taken has happened on the data clearly as most of the buyer are taking profit right there on this new level that has been caused on the data which has lead the pair to come back again lower than 1.93 level but the current market sentiment has been changed on this new data causing new buying for the pair on a third wave after the data and this has caused a new high breaking above the resistance at 1.936 and this was helped by more strength on the main trend of the USD dovish market sentiment. Also it is clear on the chart the squaring of USD selling that what has been done in the day before the data. There was also an increasing of USD selling before the data on the market tendency to sell USD on the data anyway especially as the market was already discounting good data and the main bearish trend of dollar can give much more strength to the profit taken wave on the data.

But it is not welcomed as we have said before to take risk before this important data and as you have seen that it is very good to wait for the data to take profits and even on this dovish market sentiment of USD as it is not just the main market sentiment before the data or the main trend or what is the market discounting but it is also the significance of the data what can determine the end of the spike of the first wave on the data or the profit taken wave or the third wave on the change of the current market sentiment on these new data.

Trading on the third wave or on the change of market sentiment after taking profits on the data, should be lighter than the profit taken trading. As here you start for the anticipation of an end of the profit taken wave and you should cut loss if there is breaking of the level of price that was before the data as this means that the profit taken wave can persist and this can be done if there is a high discounting level of the data or the data was against the main trend of the market and the main sentiment should persist by bargain hunters.

69: It is always preferred to take your risk on the midterm. This keeps you from the forex market fluctuations and it always gives you a time to evaluate and think.

70: the first step to loss more is comparing your current loss with your big previous profits regardless of the current losing position condition looking at your account balance. this can maximize your loss comparing with your other winning positions eroding your results.


Walid Salah El Din
FX Consultant
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 29-11-2010, 01:45 AM   #10
walid
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تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
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افتراضي 29/11/2010 - The Current Market Sentiment

The pressure is still on the single currency on increasing European requests for Portugal to accept a funding loan of its deficit from the IMF and European commission prepared package for the debt problems of the Euro area following Ireland while they have new assurance from Spain that it is not in need of this package satisfied with the current bond market conditions and how it was obvious to the market that the Irish yields have gone down as it has become less exposed to the normal bond market conditions which have become sever to its financial position, after the announcement about its reached deal for having funds from this package as it has restored the confidence on the offered debts giving stability of its position supporting the position of the other European countries after the yield differential have increased recording new highs between the suffering countries like Ireland and Germany as the most stable trusted country and first funding county of this offered package and looking for having adjustments of the bond market inside the Euro zone as what has been announced with France by the end of last week.
The market sees stability currently in this Bond market than a week ago eyeing on the Portugal right now for accepting it's waited share of this offered low interest rate loan bringing its deficit to GDP below 3% as Maastricht treaty pact getting the market focusing out of this debt problems from now without further worries at least for the meanwhile and the short term and working with the other European market for restoring confidence in the European debt and the Euro creditability which has influenced negatively this year by the market worries about the debt outlook inside the Euro and the probabilities of execrating and spreading out of the ailing countries like Ireland and Greece to other countries has actually suffered from the impact of it like Italy, France and Germany. So, if we had a similar acceptance in the coming few weeks from Portugal, this can be good for the Euro over the short and medium term putting the markets eyes on the economic growth rates which can help these suffering economies from deficit to get its financial situations stable out of defaulting risks which tempered the investments spending tackling the recovery of these countries after the credit crisis joining the other European countries as we have seen recently the germane IFO historical recorded new high of November which has not been seen since the beginning of it in 1991 reaching 109.3 getting above October reading which was 107.7 but even this good figure was not enough to ease the market worries about the debt outlook inside the Euro area which is still looking in needs of an end or new reasons to get down and this can be by the acceptance of Portugal or what can it give to restore confidence about its debt too like what Spanish government which has announced that it has no reason to get use of this offered helping package.
The European equities markets have mostly closed it last session down working lonely without the US markets which were closed because of the thanksgiving holidays negatively impacted by the low volume and some restored confidence in the bonds markets driving them up after the yields of them got down last week by the Irish acceptance but the germane market which closed the week up by just 5 points with no realized changes on its bonds prices which were actually stable and the differentials amongst its yields and the other suffering European economies from the debt crisis were gauge of the crisis depression of these countries which continued pressing on the single currency trading below 1.32 last Friday before closing the week at 1.3247 versus the greenback after failing to get above 1.3775 in the beginning of last week despite the market concerns about Ireland have calmed down on a reached deal between IMF, EU and Ireland during for having a bailing out package from 80B Euros to what's below 100B Euros as the Irish government has announced but this inability for keeping this gains has put technical pressure on the pair which has drawn down breaking 1.35 psychological level triggering stop losing orders adding to the downward momentum of the pair which has its real major supporting area starting from 1.3030 to 1.297 and the failing to have new buying there can lead to testing the pair recent bottom at 1.26 while the greenback has been supported by revising up of US Q3 GDP to 2.5% from just 2% but this could not improve the market risk appetite which has been affected negatively by the triggered fire between the 2 Koreans which killed 2 south Korean soldiers and unknown damage yet on the northern Korean part which lead to a risk aversion sentiment containing the markets sentiment supporting the greenback across the broad from another side underpinned by the demand for the US treasuries from looking for a safe haven in the USD dominations and the gold also which is still trying for getting above 1380$ but after the EU finance ministers passing of 85B euros bailing out package plan during this weekend, the single currency can get some relative strength in the Asian session but this can not hold as long as the market concerns are still existing with the tension in the semi Korean island capping the investors from taking risk back after squaring before the thanksgiving holidays in US preferring the greenback and the gold holding.

God willing, the markets will be waiting this week from US for November ISM Manufacturing to be 56.3 from 56.9 in October and non-manufacturing indexes to be 54.7 from 54.3 in October and also by the end of the week for US non farm payroll to be 145k from 151k in October and the US factory orders of October to get down by .7% after rising in September by 2.1%

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
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