تحليل اليور 2015 حسب اليوت ويف

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EUR/USD 2015 Elliott Wave Forecast

Elliott Wave


Although the single currency did edge higher initially in early 2014, price did falter below indicated psychological resistance at 1.4000 and dropped sharply from 1.3993, adding credence to our bearish count that the rebound from 1.2042 is wave 2, current break of 1.2042 support confirms this wave 2 already ended at 1.3993, reinforcing our bearish count that major wave C with circle ended at 1.6040 back in July 2008, the series of (I)(II), I II, 1-(1.2042) 2-(1.3993) impulsive wave structure from 1.6040 is unfolding, our indicated downside targets at 1.2650, 1.2500 and 1.2000 were met late last year. Current breach of 1.2042 confirms wave 3 of III has commenced for a retest of previous support at 1.1876 (wave I bottom). Looking ahead, a break below 1.1876 is needed to confirm the wave III is underway and extend fall to 1.1640 and then to 1.1434 (100% projection of 1.6040-1.2329 measuring from 1.5145). The eventual downside target would be at 1.1212 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8228 to 1.6040) and later to 1.1014 (100% projection of 1.5145 to 1.1876 measuring from 1.4283) which is likely to hold on first testing.

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 1.2200 and 1.2300 cannot be ruled out, reckon resistance area at 1.2570-1.2600 would limit upside and bring another decline to aforesaid downside targets. A sustained breach above 1.2600 would suggest first leg of wave 3 is over and bring minor 2nd wave correction to 1.2770 and possibly 1.2880-90 but upside should be limited to psychological resistance at 1.3000 and bring another decline in 3rd wave of extended wave 3. Above 1.3000 would risk a stronger recovery to 1.3200 and possibly to 1.3350 but still expect the single currency to be capped at 1.3500-10 and bring another selloff in later part of 2015.
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