Have we already seen the S&P 500 high of the year?

walid · 13-10-2014, 01:19 PM

The current market sentiment wants to say that we have already reached S&P 500 highest levels of the year at 2019.26 on 19th of last September.
The dovish market sentiment contained the market by an aggressive way last week before long weekend.
The Ebola virus concern has already become another market worry, after detecting occurred infection in US, despite the quarantine around the detected case in Dallas showing actual threat to the world cannot get down without having a serum of this disease can stop this contagion plague.
The EU economy is suffering from a recession now not from growth slowdown. Draghi has said from US last week that there is further growth slowdown at the current excessive low level of inflation, while Q2 EU GDP has been already zero. It seems that we are ahead of deflation not just disinflation in EU.
The other sentiment figures which came out from EU suggest that we are to face further weakness in EU such as Germane IFO and ZEW continued shocking figures until now, while we have already seen Germane economic shrinking by 0.2% in the second quarter. We have seen Sep EU CPI flash reading coming at 0.3% yearly which is the weakest rate since October 2009.
There was an initial estimation by the ECB of the first 2 TLTROs rounds to reach Eur400b, before making them 6 rounds can reach €1tr!
But the first round of TLTRO ended on only €82.602b request.
So, it looks that there can be a serious need for direct buying transaction by the ECB’s APS program by easy conditions otherwise going to the next level by imposing a QE plan and that looks potentially conditioned by negative CPI yearly rate and that also looking not a way from here.
While the market can be afraid ahead of watching lower inflation rate in US with greenback rising and energy prices slump from a side and from another side with close end of the Fed’s QE by God’s will.
The Fed should come out and say that the interest rate rising is not a target by itself and it is to be set on the inflation changes as long as the labor market conditions are improving. It should remind the market of the real meaning of being data dependent tracking the inflation rate.
The former Fed’s chairman to Ben Bernanke Mr. Alan Greenspan has seen a bubble and warned last month, after watching the recent aforementioned level of S&P 500 that there can be severe correction and that what has happened and to far extent we have seen the market reacting to the bad news after reaching high level of certainty with the falling of the unemployment rate to 5.9% in September and adding 248k out of the farming sector in September pushing XAUUSD to reach $1182 per ounce before bouncing up to $1237.90 until now.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

13-10-2014, 01:19 PM	#1
walid متداول نشيط تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004 المشاركات: 848	Have we already seen the S&P 500 high of the year? The current market sentiment wants to say that we have already reached S&P 500 highest levels of the year at 2019.26 on 19th of last September. The dovish market sentiment contained the market by an aggressive way last week before long weekend. The Ebola virus concern has already become another market worry, after detecting occurred infection in US, despite the quarantine around the detected case in Dallas showing actual threat to the world cannot get down without having a serum of this disease can stop this contagion plague. The EU economy is suffering from a recession now not from growth slowdown. Draghi has said from US last week that there is further growth slowdown at the current excessive low level of inflation, while Q2 EU GDP has been already zero. It seems that we are ahead of deflation not just disinflation in EU. The other sentiment figures which came out from EU suggest that we are to face further weakness in EU such as Germane IFO and ZEW continued shocking figures until now, while we have already seen Germane economic shrinking by 0.2% in the second quarter. We have seen Sep EU CPI flash reading coming at 0.3% yearly which is the weakest rate since October 2009. There was an initial estimation by the ECB of the first 2 TLTROs rounds to reach Eur400b, before making them 6 rounds can reach €1tr! But the first round of TLTRO ended on only €82.602b request. So, it looks that there can be a serious need for direct buying transaction by the ECB’s APS program by easy conditions otherwise going to the next level by imposing a QE plan and that looks potentially conditioned by negative CPI yearly rate and that also looking not a way from here. While the market can be afraid ahead of watching lower inflation rate in US with greenback rising and energy prices slump from a side and from another side with close end of the Fed’s QE by God’s will. The Fed should come out and say that the interest rate rising is not a target by itself and it is to be set on the inflation changes as long as the labor market conditions are improving. It should remind the market of the real meaning of being data dependent tracking the inflation rate. The former Fed’s chairman to Ben Bernanke Mr. Alan Greenspan has seen a bubble and warned last month, after watching the recent aforementioned level of S&P 500 that there can be severe correction and that what has happened and to far extent we have seen the market reacting to the bad news after reaching high level of certainty with the falling of the unemployment rate to 5.9% in September and adding 248k out of the farming sector in September pushing XAUUSD to reach $1182 per ounce before bouncing up to $1237.90 until now. Kind Regards FX Market Strategist Walid Salah El Din Mob: +20 12 2465 9143 E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com http://www.fx-recommends.com